A Progress Report on 9 Bold Preseason Predictions for the 2024 Brewers

For all my reasoning in making these predictions in the first place, you can consult the original piece. This time through, I'll just restate the prediction and assess whether it looks likely to come to fruition (or even close) or not.

Boldness is part of the privilege of spring. You get to be bold when the season is not yet underway--when the snow is still smooth and unpunctured by footprints, and everyone's ankles and elbows feel (almost) 100 percent. Let's embrace that privilege, before it's gone.

1. Freddy Peralta will be the runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting.
Well, we're not off to a roaring start, are we? Peralta's performance this season has been uneven, much to the consternation of many fans. In 17 starts, he's 6-4, with a 3.83 ERA and only seven quality starts.

You know what, though? I'm doubling down here. Last year at this time, Peralta's ERA was 4.67. Starting last Jul. 26, in his final 11 starts, he had a 2.44 ERA. This season, he has 94 innings pitched and a strikeout rate of 30.9%. It's perfectly possible that he'll have another torrid finish, and this time, he'd be doing so from a stronger platform of performance than he built for himself in the first half of 2023. For my money, he's still an ace.

2. William Contreras will have 180 or more hits.
This is one where it's important to go back and revisit the original piece, to understand why I chose that benchmark and what it signifies. Suffice to say, though, that we're on track to see this one come true--albeit barely. With 99 hits through the first 85 games, Contreras is on track for 189 hits on the year. Not coincidentally, he's also on track to start the All-Star Game at catcher. That this one has a decent chance to come true is a testament to the strength of his first half, but the fact that it's still very much in question is a reminder of how hard a bar it is to clear for a catcher.

3. At least 14 pitchers will start a game for the Brewers.
I guess I should have said "by the start of July," to sound really smart. Injuries accelerated the process here, but that was part of the prediction, of course. The Crew have now had 15 different pitchers take the ball to begin the game, and the question is whether they'll get over 20, or even threaten the record (held, because baseball is beautiful, by two different iterations of the Athletics, from 1915 in Philadelphia and 2023 in Oakland) of 24 different starters in a campaign. 

4. Sal Frelick will start at least 54 games at third base.
It was nine bold predictions. You didn't think I'd get them all right, or even be willing to bet on doing so by July, did you? It'd be fascinating to see an alternate-reality version of the early stages of the season in which Garrett Mitchell stayed healthy. Remember, Mitchell's injury resulted in the team urgently recalling Oliver Dunn to begin the season. Dunn replaced Mitchell because Frelick was no longer available to play third regularly. Still, this one was too ambitious. Frelick might get to 20 games played there, if Mitchell and Blake Perkins merit sustained playing time the rest of the way, but even that feels unlikely.

5. A Brewers hurler will win the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year Award again.
We knew it wouldn't be Devin Williams who did it. I felt, quietly, that Trevor Megill was the best bet. The prediction was as much about the team's penchant for turning anonymous relievers into stars as about any individual player, though, so I claim credit for a win here--because Bryan Hudson has a 32.1% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate, 0.82 ERA, and 1.2 fWAR. The latter figure is third-highest among NL relievers, and while Hudson probably won't make the All-Star team, he should.

6. Rhys Hoskins will opt INTO the 2025 portion of his contract.
This one might be the most interesting, at this moment. There's still a wide avenue for Hoskins, with a strong finish, to elect free agency again at the end of the season. It feels very unlikely, though. I don't set much store by WAR for first basemen, for whom the positional adjustment can sometimes be overly unforgiving, but both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference peg him as essentially replacement-level so far this season.

Hoskins can walk away by opting out this fall, taking a total of $16 million for his time in Milwaukee and eschewing $18 million. If he finishes strongly enough to even entertain that, though, he'll have to take something else into account. Because the Phillies didn't extend him a qualifying offer last fall, the Brewers could do so if he opts out. If he's worth more than $21 million on the open market, the Crew will probably make that offer (which will be valued right around that number) so they can claim a draft pick as he departs.

To make opting out smart, then, Hoskins would have to finish pretty strongly, but in a way that had everyone feeling like he's going to be fine but not excellent in 2025. It feels like a needle that won't be threaded. At this moment, I expect Hoskins to stay right where he is for another season. What's less sure is whether Brewers fans will be pleased about that prospect or not.

7. Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Joe Ross will combine for fewer than 270 total innings pitched.
I led the paragraph below this prediction in March with the words, "This would hurt." It does. Miley is out for the season after having pitched just seven frames, and Ross is on the 60-day injured list. The team still hopes to get him back for the last two months of the season or so, but right now, he's stuck on 42 innings. Rea has been one of the club's workhorses, pitching 87 1/3 solid innings, but in total, the trio is only at 136 1/3, and with Miley already out, it looks like the other two will end up combining for 250 or fewer frames. A return and strong finish from Ross would be a welcome and wonderful development; it just feels remote.

8. Jackson Chourio will become the second-best power-speed rookie ever.
In essence, this was a prediction that Chourio would hit at least 20 home runs and threaten 50 stolen bases. That sounds crazy, halfway into the season, as he sits on nine homers and eight steals. After two very tough months to begin his career, he came on very strongly in June, and the power benchmark feels within reach. Much more surprising to me, amid a roster leading baseball in aggressiveness in the running game, is the fact that Chourio has been so small a part of that.

As he starts getting on base more frequently, that part could change, too. A 25-homer, 30-steal overall season remains a possibility, given how well he played last month. That would still be wildly successful, and it would involve an all-timer of a second half from the rookie. What I originally predicted, though, is obviously out of the question.

9. Tyler Black will finish the season in the outfield, one way or another.
Hoskins looking increasingly likely to opt in. Jake Bauers showing some staying power as a left-handed option at first base. Continued defensive struggles with the glove and a bat that doesn't look like it will carry the heavy burden of first base's demands. Yes, this one still feels right. I would suggest, especially, that Black feels very likely to be involved in a trade this month. He would be a nice fit for what the Tigers seem to like, and Jack Flaherty might be my favorite potential trade target for the Crew this month. 

Without a doubt, Black's stock is down. The Brewers don't have to worry about that too much, though, because of the way Perkins, Chourio, and Joey Ortiz have stepped forward as this season has progressed, and thanks to the dazzling season-long performance of Brice Turang. It just seems that Black's highest utility for this organization might be as a trade chip.

That's where we stand. Given that the goal was to be a bit bold, I'm pleased with the number of these that still seem to be on target, and I wonder if I ought to have been more aggressive. Then again, there remain sufficient reminders of the fact that baseball is relentlessly unpredictable, just as the Brewers are plain old relentless.