Brewers 2, Dodgers 6: Different Day, Same Struggles

Box Score

Starting Pitcher: Eric Lauer - 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 67 pitches, 44 strikes (65.7%)
Home Runs: Rowdy Tellez (10), Victor Caratini (2)
Top 3 WPA: Jesse Winker (.037), Elvis Peguero (.024), Christian Yelich (.012) 
Bottom 3 WPA: Eric Lauer (-.238), Willy Adames (-.106), Rowdy Tellez (-.101) 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Lauer Has Shaky Start
It was a relatively short day for both Eric Lauer and Noah Syndergaard, as we saw abbreviated appearances from both pitchers. While Syndergaard left after one scoreless inning due to a cut on his right index finger, Lauer simply had a rough outing.

He gave up a leadoff homer to Mookie Betts, walked Freddie Freeman, let him steal second base, made a throwing error, then allowed him to score on a sacrifice fly by Will Smith. In the second inning, a double from James Outman and a Miguel Rojas single extended the Dodgers' lead to 3-0. In the third inning, Lauer yielded another home run, this time to Smith, giving the Dodgers 4-0 lead.

Finally, after getting the first two outs of the fourth inning, he walked Trayce Thompson and was replaced by Bryse Wilson. It was clear that Lauer's stuff was lacking, and that an extended start would destroy the already paltry 12.8% probability the Brewers had of coming back after he left the mound.

Lauer has historically performed remarkably well against the Los Angeles Dodgers, holding hitters to a combined .640 OPS over 263 plate appearances. History was just that, though, on Tuesday night.

Bryse Wilson Has Shaky Relief Appearance
Like his mound predecessor, Bryse Wilson gave up two earned runs of his own. In the sixth inning, a Max Muncy single followed by a Miguel Vargas home run essentially sealed the game, inflating the lead to 6-0 in favor of Los Angeles. He’d get James Outman to ground out and strike out Trayce Thompson to finish the inning, but at this point it was pretty clear that the lineup would be unable to generate the run support needed to come back after trailing early. 

After Vargas’s homer, the Brewers were estimated to have a 2.7% chance of winning, a prediction that was painfully accurate. To make matters even worse, Gus Varland threw an enormous 44 pitches in his four-out relief appearance, a heavy workload for someone who just got off the injured list.

40% Of Brewers Hits Were Home Runs! That’s Great, Right?
This statistic would mean a lot more if the Brewers had more than five hits. After Syndergaard’s early departure, the Dodgers relievers got to work picking apart the Brewers lineup from top to bottom. Rowdy Tellez put the first run on the board for Milwaukee with a solo shot to center field. The ball had an exit velocity of 105.8 mph and a distance of 413 feet.

Victor Caratini followed this up with a home run of his own, a 103.6-mph moonshot that traveled 398 feet to right-center field. Because of its placement, Caratini’s batted ball was a home run in all but two parks, Kauffman Stadium and Oracle Park, whereas Tellez’s home run was a home run in just over half of all ballparks.

But there wasn’t much else to speak of by way of offense. Three singles and three walks would make up the remainder of the Brewers plate appearances, not nearly enough to claw back victory.

What’s Next? 
The third game of this series will be decided by two of the greatest left-handed pitchers to grace the mound--Clayton Kershaw and Wade Miley. With Miley’s ERA at 2.31, he is clearly the superior pitcher in every way to Kershaw, whose ERA sits at a ghastly 2.53.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet