These 2023 Brewers Freshmen Could be Primed for 2024 Breakouts

The "Freshmen" were a much-vaunted portion of the Brewers system early last season, with video on Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer catching fire and providing a buzz around the club that we hadn’t seen for a while. Despite some hot moments in the season, such as Turang’s grand slam against the Mets, Sal Frelick’s 3-4 debut, and Joey Wiemer’s red-hot June, the freshmen never quite took off. The experience of their first year does leave shoots of hope that we may see some more consistent performances this season from Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick in particular.

Joey Wiemer
Brenton del Chiaro talked this offseason about the Brewers farm system, specifically mentioning Joey Wiemer, lauding him for using his athleticism during at-bats to access extreme power and adjust his bat path mid-swing depending on pitches. His swing was long and overly complicated, especially in the load phase. He had extreme issues with breaking pitches, and no one in the big leagues faced a higher percentage of breaking pitches. He also demonstrated roughly average plate discipline, which ties in with del Chiaro’s assessment of his use of athleticism, but his in-zone swing and miss was troubling. By September, he knew he had to change, but he didn’t want to lose his natural power, and he had only a few weeks in Nashville to get game time on the alterations. That being said, you can already see a difference in his setup pre-release:

h

Although the second image is a home run, you can see his hands moving far more pre-release, resulting in a less repeatable swing compared with the sac fly above. Previously, with all the movement in his wrists, he wasn’t starting his swing from the same position, which meant he couldn’t regularly square up the baseball. A more straightforward setup should allow him to create a more consistent bat path without losing any of the raw power he possesses in his gigantic frame.

Wiemer had a serious problem swinging and missing inside the strike zone in the big leagues, with anything 25% or above a poor return in the zone. The above graphic should be taken with a pinch of salt due to the sample size and the pitching differential. However, you can see a big improvement in his ability to make contact all within the strike zone, which should help him skyrocket in 2024. 

Also, considering the small sample size, he started to time up hanging, breaking pitches. Avg exit velocities of 110.8 mph and 105.4 mph over the heart of the plate are no joke against breaking pitches, with continued development here likely forcing more fastballs his way. For reference, he slugged .487 against the fastball last season, so there should be no qualms about seeing more of those babies in a season’s span.

The Brewers' organizational philosophy is to allow hitters to be themselves and approach the coaches when they want to fix elements of their swing, something Wiemer appeared to do upon his demotion to Triple A at the end of last season. Del Chiaro said that Wiemer specifically is someone they’re incredibly excited about this season, referencing Wiemer’s work on his own this offseason and how he has peppered coaching staff with videos for feedback on various alterations to simplify his swing while retaining the power that gives him such a tremendous ceiling. Joey Wiemer may have the lowest stock value right now, but expect a big jump in his performance in 2024. 

Sal Frelick
Ken Rosenthal just broke the news about Sal Frelick’s versatility extending to the infield, covering his work with Dustin Pedroia and adding another string to the talented youngsters' bow. With this likely more of an emergency, the most significant impact in 2024 will be with the bat after a thumb injury sapped his power in 2023.

Frelick has always been known as a contact first hitter with exceptional bat-to-ball skills and a good eye at the plate, but Keith Law wrote last year about how he’s a step above the Steven Kwan hitter mold with minimal power. It’s clear that the thumb injury he sustained on the basepaths had a significant effect on his power output, as you can see even just in his minor league production last year:

In 2022 in the minors, he was able to square up the baseball more effectively, specifically turning on pitches on the inner third. He tried to do this repeatedly with the big league club but couldn’t generate the quality of contact, forcing him to fall back on his gritty mentality and scramble his way on base. Sal Frelick may never be a 20+ home run player, but he should be able to hit for a higher average and turn on pitches for more damage. As you can see from 2022, he can hit the ball hard, really hard if it’s in his zone, and tapping into that at the major league level will go a long way to cementing a position at the top of the Brewers order. Both these data samples are from the minor leagues and the significant dropoff in exit velocities after his thumb troubles are a very clear reason for his lower power output.

The other big thing for Frelick is his ground ball rate, which skyrocketed in the major leagues last season. A consistent line drive hitter throughout the minor leagues, he struggled to elevate both in the minors and the majors last season after his thumb injury. Manipulating the bat's barrel is challenging; however, with a thumb issue, that becomes exponentially harder. Frelick’s power and batting average should take significant steps forward from a clean bill of health as a result. That clean stroke can be added to his naturally gritty batting capabilities to create a pretty fearsome hitter in this lineup.

The long and short of it is that both these freshmen have shown the capability for more than last year's performance, and there are reasons to be excited for their second year in the big leagues. While Garrett Mitchell has both injury issues and strikeout problems and Brice Turang had perhaps the worst struggles of the lot with the bat, both Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could be the kind of impact players for the Brewers that take them to a whole new level offensively. Spring Training will be a fascinating watch, and we at Brewer Fanatic can’t wait to see what each can bring to the table this season.

Also Frelick looks kind of smooth here doesn't he?

What do you think of the potential breakouts above? Can you see either Wiemer or Frelick taking the next step? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!