Brewers 9, Dodgers 3: There’s No Place Like Home

Box Score

Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta - 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 94 pitches, 56 strikes (59.6%)
Home Runs: Joey Wiemer (3), Willy Adames (7)
Top 3 WPA: Joey Wiemer (.342), Freddy Peralta (.260), Elvis Peguero (.070) 
Bottom 3 WPA: Jesse Winker (-.051), Rowdy Tellez (-.046), Brice Turang (-.041) 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Freddy Fans Five
Freddy Peralta had an excellent showing on the mound Monday night, giving up just three hits and one earned run. His stuff was electric, deploying a blazing fastball that touched 97 mph and a menacing slider.

Peralta stepped up in a big way against a formidable Dodgers lineup and never backed down. The one earned run on his record was the result of a double by Freddie Freeman in the top of the sixth inning, when he was able to advance to third and eventually score after back-to-back groundouts by Jason Heyward and Max Muncy.

With Peralta's ERA at 3.32, we may see a return to his 2021 All-Star form. Since Corbin Burnes has been struggling more often than not thus far, he may even need to serve as the team’s new ace.

The Boys Go Yard
After four innings of what seemed like a building pitchers' duel, the Dodgers blinked first by giving up an absolute nuclear missile to your favorite rookie’s favorite rookie, Joey Wiemer. The ball had an exit velocity of 108.8 mph and a distance of 403 feet, granting it a .970 expected batting average and the status of true no-doubter, being a home run in all 30 ballparks. (Wait, does the fact that the expected average was .970 mean it was a "three-percent doubter"? Forget it. He's rolling.)

The home run drove in Brice Turang and Tyrone Taylor, who had reached base on a fielder’s choice and a single, respectively. It gave the Brewers a crucial 3-0 lead and had a WPA of 21.7%.

The seventh inning was more Milwaukee mayhem, as both Brian Anderson and Turang started off with singles. Anderson would score on a Wiemer double. Christian Yelich then hit a two-run single to plate Wiemer and Turang before the Dodgers made a much-needed pitching change, bringing Wander Suero to the mound.

He didn’t fare much better. He walked Jesse Winker, then gave up a three-run home run to Willy Adames, inflating the score to 9-1 in favor of the Brewers. Man, where was this offense last week?

Dodgers Use 2-RBI Homer! It’s Not Very Effective…
After Peralta’s quality start, Elvis Peguero and Bennett Sousa would split up the final three innings of the game. Peguero was lights-out, giving up just one hit in 1 1/3 innings of relief. I mean, with a 96 mph sinker that has 20 inches of horizontal break, are we really surprised?

Bennett Sousa had a bit of a rougher relief appearance. He was able to strike out Freeman and get Muncy to pop out to end the eighth inning, but a single to James Outman and subsequent home run by Chris Taylor is how he started the ninth inning. Nonetheless, the win probability graph actually stayed at 99.9%, and the prediction came true after Sousa was able to net the final outs.

What’s Next? 
Eric Lauer will face Dodgers reboot project Noah Syndergaard in the second game of the homestand. Syndergaard currently has an ERA of 6.32 after six starts, and still hasn't been able to recover the fastball velocity he lost after Tommy John surgery, so he might be an easy target for a hungry and revitalized Brewers lineup. 

With Milwaukee just 0.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates for the NL Central leadership, it could be a pivotal moment in the season. That being said, the NL Central seems even weaker than usual, with the Pirates and Cubs losing seven out their last ten; the Cardinals floundering so badly that their fans are calling for manager Oli Marmol's job; and the Reds still being owned by Bob Castellini.

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