The Brewers, the Diamondbacks, and Baseball's Lack of Absolutes

When Frankie Montas left the mound in the top of the third inning, his team trailed 8-0. A couple of hours later, the Brewers’ bullpen and offense had taken him off the hook in a thrilling 10-9 comeback victory.

It was the fourth time in franchise history (and first since 2004, and only the third time overall, of you disown the Seattle Pilots) that Milwaukee erased a deficit of eight or more runs in a win. Most of it happened late, as the Brewers plated six runs over their final two turns, including a four-spot in the bottom of the eighth to take the lead.

Underscoring an afternoon filled with several noteworthy storylines – including Montas inadvertently revealing his pitch grips to Diamondbacks runners on second base and Willy Adames refusing to leave the game amid the ugly deficit – was the improbability of the final result.

While not the most intricate metric, Win Expectancy provides a solid estimate of a team’s chances of winning a game from the current game situation. Factors considered include the score, inning, number of outs and men on base, and whether the team in question is home or away. Each team’s odds are recalculated after every play.

The Brewers’ Win Expectancy was 2.2% when Montas left the game. In other words, a team in a similar situation had historically gone on to win roughly two out of every 100 times. A Diamondbacks victory was extremely likely, but it was not guaranteed.

No matter the score, a team’s Win Expectancy does not hit a flat 100 or zero until the final out is recorded. That’s because improbable comebacks have happened throughout baseball’s storied history. No lead is certain to hold up until the game is over.

A likelihood of 2% is greater than zero. The Brewers’ comeback was improbable, but not impossible. It can happen and has happened before.

The same can be said of how they accomplished the feat. The four-run rally began with two outs and the bases empty in the eighth, at which point the Brewers had roughly a 7% chance of scoring a single run. A likelihood of 7% is greater than zero, though.

Six straight Brewers reached base, with Rhys Hoskins’s bloop single tying it and Jake Bauers’s infield hit attaining the lead. Blake Perkins and Hoskins both singled after falling behind in the count 0-2 and prolonging their at-bats.

The league-wide on-base percentage this year after reaching an 0-2 count is .198. A 20% chance of reaching base is greater than zero. On multiple levels, the Brewers ultimately landed in the small percentages of players and teams who came through when it was highly unlikely.

In an information-driven age of baseball, front offices and managers make an increasing majority of decisions based on probabilities. Sunday’s events were a reminder that no strategy in this game is infallible.

Managers can play the favorable platoon matchup, and their player can still be on the losing end of the plate appearance. A pitcher can execute a pitch and induce soft contact that goes for a hit. A batter can hit a line drive on the screws up the middle, only to see it caught for an out. Conversely, players, managers, and front offices occasionally do the wrong things, with favorable results.

Orchestrating favorable situations and executing on the field works more often than not, but it will never have a 100% success rate. The adage rings true: that’s why you play the game.

That should be comforting to anyone who fears what they perceive as the sport becoming “run by computers.” It can never be fully automated. No results can be guaranteed from human players. Given that humans also make the ultimate call after every pitch, no outcome can be fully assured.

There are no absolutes in baseball. It’s one of many elements that make the game great.