Brewers Hitters Should Feel Confident Facing Second-Half Matthew Boyd, Even at Wrigley Field

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs prepare for Game 4 of the NLDS on Thursday night, the Crew sends ace Freddy Peralta to the mound to face the North Siders' Matthew Boyd. Much of the Cubs' confidence in Boyd stems from his gaudy numbers at Wrigley Field this season, where he is 12-1 with a 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 23.2% strikeout rate.

Though Boyd is certainly better at home—like most starting pitchers—those stats are quite misleading at this point in the year. The late-season version of Boyd has had plenty of struggles, and his output at home since August has been pedestrian compared to his otherworldly performances before the trade deadline.



Each of these meaningful statistics worsened for Boyd—some of them substantially—after July. Most telling might be the 11.6 percentage-point drop in strikeout rate, coupled with the 1.6 percentage-point increase in walk rate. More balls in play and free passes give the offense significant advantages. Even though Boyd can rely on the Cubs' terrific defense to steal some outs, a 4.48 FIP is difficult to manage without giving up chunks of runs.

Even Boyd's overall effectiveness in the last month, home or away, was clearly lacking. Taking a look at some Statcast numbers on his four-seam fastball and changeup shows concerning trends for him in September, versus July.



Expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging (xSLG) have jumped in a big way for each of those pitches, with a .649 xSLG on the fastball and .511 against the changeup. That is some gigantic power potential for hitters, spurred on by the increases in exit velocity for each. Interestingly, while Boyd's four-seam velocity has dipped slightly, his changeup velocity went up 0.4 MPH. Does that indicate a lack of control of his arm swing, in part due to fatigue?

Whatever the reason, it decreased the gap between his fastball and changeup from 15.9 MPH to 15.1 MPH. That's not huge as a percentage of that differential, but it likely means he isn't keeping the two pitches' speeds disparate enough (at times) to fool hitters the same way he did earlier in the season. It's a big differential, relative to the rest of the league, but the way his pitches work, the shrinkage can still matter a lot. Perhaps that means that Boyd will opt for a heavier serving of his curve, sinker and slider, to avoid the troubles caused by his other two pitches. It's all something to pay attention to during the game.

Overall, Boyd's performance dip is likely rooted in the 34-year-old's workload. He pitched a total of 153 2/3 combined innings (MLB and the minors) from 2022-24, with Tommy John surgery taking a big chunk out of the middle of that span. Last year, Boyd tossed only 61 1/3 frames, with 39 2/3 of them coming at the big-league level. If you count the lefty's two playoff appearances in 2025, he is up to 184 2/3 innings pitched heading into Game 4. That is an enormous year-to-year increase, particularly for a mid-30s pitcher not far removed from surgery. The Cubs have been very careful with him, but there's only so much they could do to mitigate the accumulation of work.

The Brewers should be jumping in the box with supreme confidence, based on what they did to Boyd in Game 1 and factoring in his late-season performances. If Milwaukee can get traffic on the bases from the get-go, Boyd could begin to doubt himself. A big opening act could also help take the wind out of the Wrigley Field crowd's sails—another potential bonus.

In theory, Milwaukee shouldn't need many runs to take care of business, with Peralta and the high-leverage relievers ready to roll. However, the Brewers might need those runs early, because manager Craig Counsell would likely be prepared with a quick hook. The good news is, recent evidence says the Brewers have every opportunity to get ahead and stay ahead en route to a trip to the NLCS.