Brewers Keep Scoring, with a Diverse and Efficient Lineup

It's hard to argue with the results of the Brewers' offensive mix, gathered by GM Matt Arnold and stirred by manager Pat Murphy. There were early question marks and some feeling-out of players, but it has come together in a big way. The crew is led by a couple of stars in early MVP candidate William Contreras (179 OPS+) and a rejuvenated Christian Yelich (178 OPS+). Throw in some young surprises in Brice Turang (.362 OBP) and Joey Ortiz (.549 SLG), supplemented with a host of guys making their own, unique contributions, and suddenly the Brewers are averaging 5.13 runs per game.

The diversified lineup includes a blend of high on-base guys, power-driven bats, contact-focused hitters and baserunning experts to limit the opponents' ability to completely shut down the offense. Even the simple, valuable OBP and slugging percentage (SLG) numbers are stunning to examine. The top seven Brewers on the team are all well above the league average.



Not everyone is ripping the cover off the ball (though four Brewers have an average exit velocity of 90+ MPH), but even the softer contact hitters are finding ways on base and swiping bags. This mash-up contrasts the recent string of offensive makeup that felt heavily reliant on the long ball while accepting less contact, more strikeouts, a lower OBP and a dearth of athleticism. It would appear the mix has allowed the Brewers to be efficient and consistent in their production, despite some curious statistical trends. They haven't had long fallow periods on offense.

Heading into the weekend, the Brewers had swung at the lowest percentage of pitches in baseball, hacking just 43.2% of the time. The good news is the Brewers swing at the fewest pitches outside of the strike zone (23.3%), though it's fascinating that they also swing least often when pitches are in the zone (60.9%). One would think taking so many strikes would hurt the offense. In fact, five of the next six teams who swing least often at strikes average less than four runs per game, sitting in the bottom third of MLB. 

It must be that the Brewers are seriously driving the ball when they do make contact, right? Not exactly. They rank 11th in hard-hit balls, per FanGraphs, but also just 19th in medium-hit balls and 15th in soft-hit contact. That's mostly a lot of "average" contact on the whole, especially for a team that swings so infrequently, yet scores so often.

Clearly, they must keep the ball off the ground where you're less likely to get hits and produce runs, then. Nope. That's not it, either, as they have the fourth-highest ground ball percentage (45.3%) in baseball. Not surprisingly, the three clubs with higher ground ball percentages score less than four runs per contest. Yet, there are the Brewers, one of only three teams tallying over five runs each night. One would think that means Brewers' hitters are getting a bit lucky with their grounders finding holes. On the contrary, Milwaukee owns a .236 batting average on ground balls, 21st in all of baseball.

How does a team score so much, when numerous statistics appear to be working against them? That is where the efficiency blows everything else away.

Factor one is how the Brewers perform with runners on base. They rank fourth in baseball in OBP (.335), so they create a ton of opportunities to hit in those situations. With men on, Milwaukee has the best batting average (.292), slugging percentage (.493) and OPS (.854) in MLB, and that includes having the most home runs with runners aboard (32). While fans always remember those left on base, have Brewers' backers realized how terrific their club has been this season? Scoring without a home run thanks to multiple baserunners, while also driving in multiple runs thanks to non-solo home runs, is a delicious formula--if you can keep it rolling.

Another efficient use of the Brewers' skills has been the ability to turn fly balls into dingers. Though Milwaukee batters hit a ton of ground balls, they counteract that negative trait with a terrific home run-per-fly ball percentage. The Brewers own a 14.1% HR/FB in 2024, good for second in MLB. At the same time, they have the fifth-lowest infield fly ball percentage; those are guaranteed outs they are avoiding. So when the Brewers hit the ball skyward, they are driving it out of the park at a high rate or, at worst, shooting it into the outfield, where doubles and triples can be found. They would love to at least get to the middle of the pack in fly ball percentage, but at least they're doing damage when the ball is off the ground. 

Contreras is a fantastic example of the value of hitting more fly balls and making it count when you get lift. He has knocked off more than three percentage points from his ground-ball rate last season and that has been a contributor to his transformation from very good in 2023 to phenomenal in 2024.


Of course, when the Brewers aren't relying on their third-best OPS (.759) or fourth-most homers (58) in MLB, they use the running game. Swiping a bag can have multiple benefits, aside from the obvious 90-foot advancement toward the plate. Steals take away double-play chances, create scoring opportunities without base hits, and can alter the defensive setup on the infield, which might favor the hitter. Milwaukee has 61 stolen bases entering Friday, good for third in baseball. But the Brewers have been more efficient than the two clubs in front of them, as Milwaukee base stealers own an 86% success rate, second only to the Toronto Blue Jays (90%). Of course, their efforts are led by Turang, who is 18-for-18 this season. Having a runner on second with no outs or a man on third with one out means one of those many ground balls can score a run, rather than leading to two easy outs. Efficient use of skills--and your allotted outs--can make up for other shortcomings.

But what does any of this mean going forward? As noted, having different ways to score runs makes it harder on pitchers and defenses to shut down a lineup regularly. The way Milwaukee's offense is constructed, there's no reason to believe a significant decline is coming. Sure, it's unlikely Contreras will finish the season with an OPS of .980, or that Yelich will slug his current .592 all year. That is what you protect against with a more diverse lineup. You're getting major power from Gary Sánchez (.506 SLG) and Jake Bauers (.473 SLG), who can fill the valleys of others. Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio haven't come close to their potential as players, which includes elements of contact, speed and power--again, a mix of skills that can serve the team well when they click.

Overall, the offense has been fun to watch and more productive than most predicted. Missing Rhys Hoskins's power and OBP combo for a while will hurt, but Ortiz is filling that void and then some. Entering Sunday's game, Ortiz was slashing .294/.392/.549 in 120 plate appearances. Will that type of production last? Extremely doubtful. But his early performance and batted-ball profile is a significant development for the offense.

The Brewers are utilizing the long ball with great success, especially with runners on base. That is key. However, they are finding different ways to contribute by getting on base, picking up clutch hits and playing some small ball. And if all else fails, the club can run around the bases until someone actually throws them out. Neither hitting with runners on base nor generating home runs on a high percentage of fly balls is an especially sticky skill, but the Brewers will try to prove that there's an exception for every such rule.

Can the Brewers finish as the third-best offense in baseball? If they can extend this current run of success into the middle of June, you have to start to believe that, at worst, their offense is a legitimate top-10 group. In all likelihood, they'll only get better with more experience. That would still be one heck of an improvement over last season, when they finished 17th in runs scored at 4.49 runs per game.