To Be His Best Self, Coleman Crow Needs His Signature Breaking Stuff

Coleman Crow is a game planner’s dream. He’s the right kind of natural supinator, meaning his wrist instinctively angles away from his body as he releases the baseball, but in a controlled, adjustable way. That allows him to create a wide array of pitch shapes. Crow has expanded his arsenal to five pitches this year. With his four-seamer and sinker both averaging just over 91 mph, mixing those shapes and speeds effectively is a necessity. 

Crow’s bread and butter, though, is his breaking stuff. His curveball has averaged an elite 2,926 RPM this year, with -14.3 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) and 17.5 inches of glove-side break. His sweeper similarly averages 2,946 RPM, with 21.3 inches of horizontal break. Crow’s cutter, four-seamer, and sinker draw mixed reviews from pitch modeling metrics, but every public model agrees that his breaking balls are his best offerings.

The drawback is that pitches with such big break are not very versatile. They can be harder to land in the strike zone early in counts. Because Crow’s spinners both average under 80 MPH, they’re likely to generate more weak contact than swings and misses. There are limits to how often he can use his breaking pitches as a starter, which made the cutter and sinker necessary additions to his mix. Still, spinning the ball is his strength, and his curveball and sweeper should be a significant part of what he’s doing on the mound in any role.

Crow sequenced his arsenal well in Triple-A this year. Against righties, he worked ahead with cutters and sinkers before expanding the zone with both his sweeper and curveball. Lefties saw cutters early, followed by curveballs and high four-seamers as put-away pitches. Overall, 65.5% of his pitches have been some version of the fastball, meaning he used his breaking stuff at a 34.5% clip—noticeably higher than the MLB average of 29.1% for starting pitchers.

It was a similar approach in his first two big-league starts. Unsurprisingly, William Contreras and the fastball-favoring Brewers nudged his mix slightly further in that direction, throwing 69% heaters. However, they still utilized Crow’s breaking balls an above-average 31% of the time. That changed on Friday night in Houston, when a whopping 81% of his pitches were fastballs.

It’s unclear whether this was the plan from the get-go or an in-game shift to the pitches Crow was throwing most competitively that night. He wasn’t his sharpest, throwing just 48% of his pitches in the strike zone after attacking it aggressively (58.4% and 55.9%) in his first two starts. Both his curveball and sweeper had in-zone rates of 25%.

However, Contreras and Crow didn’t exactly give themselves much of an opportunity to see how competitive those breaking balls could be throughout the start, throwing just eight curveballs and four sweepers. Furthermore, while a couple of sweepers were non-competitive misses, most of Crow’s curveballs were just outside the zone, and four induced chases.

Meanwhile, the Astros made loud contact against Crow’s fastballs. His cutter produced zero whiffs and yielded three hard-hit balls, for an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph. Similarly, his sinker was responsible for a pair of hard hits and an average exit velocity of 94.8 mph. His final line of four runs (two earned) in four innings was partially the product of shoddy defense, but the fastball-heavy version of Crow wasn’t putting himself in positions to succeed, either.

Above all else, Crow will need better command than he had on Friday to navigate most outings. All three of his fastballs are useful pitches that give him a counter for most swing paths, counts, and hitter timing. However, spinning a breaking ball remains his specialty. His best work will come when he’s throwing his curveball and sweeper competitively. Crow must prove those pitches can be consistent, and the Brewers’ game planners must give him the opportunity to throw them.