Brewers' Latest Offensive Speed Bump Reinforces the Importance of Clinching a First-Round Playoff Bye

For the second straight game (and third of the last four), the Brewers fell in extra innings Wednesday, as their offense sputtered. The latest occurrence saw Milwaukee plate just two runs while going 0-for-15 with runners in scoring position.

Driving in runners from second or third base is not an issue for the Brewers, overall. Neither is total scoring. They have the second-highest OPS with runners in scoring position in baseball, and rank fifth in runs per game.

That does not mean struggles to score or execute with men on base never happen in small samples. It happens to every team, including baseball’s best.

The New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and Los Angeles Dodgers have been the top offenses in baseball by wRC+. The Yankees have had 11 streaks of scoring three or fewer runs multiple games in a row. The Orioles have 12. The Dodgers have nine. All three teams have encountered stretches of at least four straight games in which they failed to exceed three runs scored.

What the Brewers are currently experiencing is not abnormal. Nor is it a symptom of a larger syndrome with their team. It is a reminder of how random baseball becomes in small samples, partially due to the natural ebbs and flows of the game.

Acknowledgment of that randomness lies at the crux of the Brewers’ approach to winning a World Series. They know the playoffs are unpredictable. The hope is that by reaching the dance in as many years as possible, they’re bound to get hot at the right time and catch the necessary breaks at some point, instead of having a short-term window slammed shut by variables for which they cannot fully account.

Ironically, the Brewers have been on the other end of those hot streaks and breaks, including in last year’s Wild Card Series, when the Arizona Diamondbacks swept them in two games. Small-sample struggles in the regular season are a reminder that it can easily happen again.

The regular season and the playoffs are entirely different animals. Ebbs and flows even out throughout the course of the year. A couple of uncharacteristic or unlucky showings will not end a team’s season. The opposite is often true in October. The shorter the sample, the more decisive each pitch, plate appearance, and game, and the greater the randomness accompanying them.

With that in mind, Milwaukee’s pursuit of the Dodgers and Phillies for one of the National League’s top two seeds is a major storyline over the regular season’s final weeks. The Brewers would not just clinch a bye or an easier matchup. They would also clinch slightly more room for error.

In the best-of-five Division Series, the Brewers could survive a two-game offensive rut and still advance. In the best-of-three Wild Card Series, that brief sputter could end their season.

Entering Thursday's off day, the Brewers trail the Dodgers by three games and the Phillies by 2.5. They face the latter at home for three games during the third week of September, in a series that could seriously impact National League playoff seeding.

The Brewers will not just need a big showing in that series to catch the Phillies. They must also sweep, for an opportunity to seize the tiebreaker between the two teams. That would mean both clubs went 3-3 against each other in the regular season, at which point their records within their respective divisions become the tiebreaker. The Brewers play the Pittsburgh Pirates the following week in their final NL Central series.

The division race may be all but settled, but if anything, the temperature is rising for Milwaukee. The remaining regular-season games – particularly the forthcoming showdown with Philadelphia – still carry tremendous implications. They could indirectly impact whether the Brewers win a playoff series, or two, or three. The team hopes it won't have to be four.