Brewers vs Orioles: The Return Of Burnes

The Brewers emerge from one pronounced youth movement and plunge into another. Over the last few years, Camden Yards has seen the emergence of some elite young talent - and the acquisition of a certain Cy Young award winner who used to call Milwaukee home. The first overall prospect is being called up to the bigs in the form of Jackson Holliday, the progeny of former Brewers killer Matt Holliday. It’s a fearsome pool to plunge into, but the Brewers' mix of veteran talent and young guns has proven capable in 2024’s early-going. So, who has the edge in this interleague battle? Let’s break it down.

Friday, April 12th
Freddy Peralta (1-0 3.09 ERA) vs Tyler Wells (0-1 4.76 ERA)

A rotation shuffling due to a rain delay paves the way for ostensible Brewers ace Freddy Peralta to open the series against the Orioles. Peralta last pitched against the Mariners, showing dominance through five innings before getting knocked around in the sixth. The extra rest will likely come as a welcome gift for Freddy, as he’s now tasked with facing the top-to-bottom relentlessness of the Orioles lineup.

The utility-grade negative WAR player in today’s Orioles lineup is rare, but Tyler Wells is precisely that. For now, Wells is a reasonable spot holder, with John Means and Kyle Bradish on the shelf. On the Orioles roster by way of a 2020 Rule 5 snag, the former first-round pick hasn’t been atrocious on the mound, but his peripherals aren’t favorable either. On the positive side, Tyler Wells's fastball has a spin rate that sits in the top 90th percentile of the league, and thanks to that, he gets batters to chase at an impressive clip. The crux of this start's outcome will be on Wells to differentiate his skillset and hone his other pitches or on batters to be less susceptible to swinging at pitches out of the zone. Either reality and you have a decisive matchup.  

Saturday, April 13th
DL Hall (0-1 4.82 ERA) vs Dean Kremer (0-0 2.19 ERA)

Returning from whence he came to try and fend off the team that drafted and developed him, it’s now Brewers lefty DL Hall. The language surrounding Hall has been candid, with the tacit acknowledgment attached that he’s yet to live up to his perceived potential thus far. Pat Murphy referred to him as a “work in progress.” While that work in progress pitched to a loss against the Mariners in his most recent start, he was the first Brewers pitcher other than Peralta to pitch past the fifth inning, though Rea would surpass that the next day.

Opposing the Crew is the Orioles' sole remaining piece from the Manny Machado trade. Kremer was one lesser-regarded prospect in that trade as the Dodger's 28th-best prospect then, but he blossomed into an ever-improving pitcher with ace-like stuff to start the year. Not only is he keeping batters off-balance with a high whiff rate, but he’s also walked all of one batter in the 12.1 innings he’s pitched. The effect seems to be bewildering batters who, when they make contact, are doing so weakly. Kremer figures to be a crafty competitor on the mound, and it would do the Crew good to approach him as meticulously as possible. 

Sunday, April 14th
Colin Rea (2-0 1.64 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (2-0 1.93 ERA)

Colin Rea has been an exercise in quiet anomalous success to this point in the season. The 1.27 WHIP belies the control he’s shown with runners on base. His fastball has been superb, defying the frankly lousy peripherals and allowing Rea to author an impressive xwOBA of .329. No one expects Rea to blow batters away, but if he can maintain control with such efficiency, there’s no reason he won’t be a highly effective mainstay in the Crew’s rotation.

What is there to say about Corbin Burnes that the Brewers faithful don’t already know? The former Brewers ace, 3x All-Star, and 2021 Cy Young winner will take the mound Sunday to face the team that drafted and developed him, and it likely figures to be more bitter than sweet. Brewers fans may remember him as the elite arm who started slow and then ramped up to the elite ace they knew and loved, but that slow start is absent, and Burnes has begun 2024 as statistically the most dominant pitcher in the league. Not that he needs it to be dominant, but it’s also worth mentioning that Burnes may feel a righteous chip on his shoulder in his inaugural start to the Crew, given candidly expressed tension that has existed ever since an awkward arbitration process saw him denied an extra $600,000 a year removed from winning the Cy Young. Whatever his demeanor, Corbin Burnes appears at the top of his game and figures to be an absolute force.

Players To Watch
Ryan Mountcastle: Eclipsed by the uncanny wave of prodigious early twenties talent that’s come up through the O’s system is the very solid bat of Ryan Mountcastle. Drafted out of high school in 2015, Mountcastle climbed to the majors and debuted in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He garnered Rookie of the Year votes in that season and the next but has been a bit hampered, thanks to repeated injuries. Still, Mountcastle is in the lineup; he can hit the ball all over and well out of the field. It should also be said that he leads the O’s position players in WAR in a team packed top-to-bottom with talent.

Jackson Holliday: Anyone who’s been a Brewers fan for over a decade might hear the Holliday name and shudder. Matt’s son has grown into a force; earlier this week, when he was 20 years old, he made his major league debut. It’s impossible to know what Holliday is going to look like facing major league pitching, but he’s managed .900 OPS or higher throughout his entire minor league career. Regardless of his future, his present is as a young wunderkind and former first-overall pick. Worth the attention of anyone who loves the game.

Christian Yelich: Don’t look now. Christian Yelich is on a convincing vintage tear that seemed all but extinct. There were whispers of a return to form last year, but even by those standards, Yelich has exceeded his expected output by leaps and bounds. Throughout his last 100 plate appearances (from early September 2023), his xwOBA has ascended from a middling .286 to an almost league-leading .482. These numbers don’t have to be sustainable for Yelich to be a meaningful contributor, but if he even contributes to brush up on this kind of production, he’ll be an All-Star and MVP vote-getter once more. 

Rhys Hoskins: On the other side of the coin, we have Milwaukee’s prize-free agent acquisition, Rhys Hoskins. After some seemingly spite-driven fireworks to start the season, it’s been a pretty meek showing for Hoskins in almost every aspect of his game. The former Philly was never sought out for his defense, which ranks just below average in most respects. Still, the foreboding power that awaited in his bat made him a worthy addition to the everyday lineup. Right now, with an OBP at .325 and an OPS at .749 with goose eggs in WAR, it’s categorically slow going for Rhys through the first few series of 2024. 

Predictions: Until the Brewers give me a reason to question their ability to win games on the road, I’m going to remain bullish on them. I’m hesitant to say it, but I think they can take two of three here.