Brewers Weekend Series Preview: Three Keys For Taking Down The Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have been a thorn in the side of the Brewers fan base as long as much of them have been able to cultivate memories. Ever since 2007, the shrewd hand of John Mozeliak has steered the Cardinals into a winning lane and kept them there. Almost immediately upon taking control, Mozeliak executed a trade that would set the tone for the first act of his tenure when he sent a sentimental favorite in Jim Edmonds to the Padres in exchange for a lesser known prospect named David Freese. Freese's career as a Cardinal would eventually culminate in winning the World Series MVP award for an unbelievable performance in the 2011 championship series.

In the following offseason, Mozeliak would show his steely reserve once more in letting all-time great and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols walk in free agency. What seemed unthinkable in the moment proved to be the right decision as Pujols' production declined precipitously year after year, all the while the Cardinals continued to play meaningfully competitive ball, winning their division five times since getting that ring. 

In the last half a decade though, there has been a vibe shift. After an exciting Wild Card appearance pioneered in part by the leadership of manager Mike Shildt, the Cardinals front office made the puzzling decision to move on from the well-regarded skipper. The reasons were thin, and, for a famously convivial fanbase, felt unconvincing. “Philosophical differences” were the sum of the explanation, and for those differences Shildt was replaced by Oliver Marmol. The first year of Marmol’s tenure felt like vintage St. Louis baseball - competence at worst, dominance at best, and a path to the postseason. Since then, though? The situation has devolved into something frankly unrecognizable. 2023 was their first losing season since 2007, built largely on the sudden decline of likely Hall Of Famers like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. There was also a palpable dysfunction felt, particularly as it pertained to the addition of Willson Contreras, who came with titanic shoes to fill as the ostensible replacement for Yadier Molina.

2024 was arguably a bit of a return to form as they managed a 83-79 record, good for a .512 winning percentage — but not good enough to reach the postseason. With flagging consistency, Mozeliak announced that 2024 would be his final year as POBO for the Cardinals, with Chaim Bloom set to take his place. As the siren song for Mozeliak rings out, the Cardinals are meeting the churn with fairly uninspired play of their own. Their recent 1-2 series loss against the Braves must have felt like an exhale as it punctuated a road trip that started with a four-game sweep at the hands of the Mets.

As the Cardinals sit dead last in the NL Central, the Brewers sit just below the Cubs near the top, but things aren’t all gravy in Brewerville either. A comedy (or tragedy) of errors, most consequentially by two Gold Glovers in Brice Turang and Christian Yelich, allowed the Giants to rally for a win, taking the series in the process. The result? The always-awkward closed door team meeting.

The series that starts on Friday figures to be a perfect storm that could brew some high-stakes intensity, insofar as such a thing could exist this early in the season. Start with the obvious acknowledgement of their historical acrimony, but that’s just sentimentality when you consider the material positions of both teams. Two division rivals are looking to right the ship, with the Brewers still reasonably clawing for a top spot. In St. Louis, there will need to be an urgent turn around for the Red Birds, or they will be firmly in the seller’s market by June. Also, the Contreras brothers! That’s kind of fun!

Three Keys For Taking Down The Cardinals

1. Gray stays Gray: Sonny Gray has had an interesting journeyman’s career to this date. Despite occasionally being ace-like in his game (finishing in the top-10 in Cy Young voting three times, most recently as a runner-up with the Twins in 2023) the Cardinals uniform will be the fifth uniform he has put on. Despite his occasional excellence, and regardless of what jersey Gray is wearing, Gray seems to have his troubles with certain Brewers bats. An ascendant Brice Turang is a career 4-for-9 against Gray, Christian Yelich is 5-21 with a homer, and Rhys Hoskins is 4-for-15. If the core can do its thing and knock Gray out early, it could force St. Louis to turn to their inconsistent bullpen — and deplete them for the next few days.

2. Priester stays Priester: It’s hard to know what Quinn Priester is going to be, but what he has been so far is unequivocally and undeniably excellent. Priester’s curveball and change-up never played especially well in previous seasons, so they’ve taken the backseat in the righty’s repertoire. He’s filled the gap by turning the sinker into his primary pitch and adding an effective cutter to his game. At least so far, the results have been game-changing. 

3. Self-Assuredness: After years of living under the cruel crimson thumb of St. Louis, it feels fair to take a cheap and decidedly non-analytical shot and say that the Brewers should take comfort and even a little joy in just knowing they are the better team. Living outside of anything corroborated by metrics and analysis may be uncouth, but the Brewers and their fans deserve to simply revel in it, so let’s.

Prediction: Even outside of being in the spirit of reveling in all of this, I genuinely do think the Cardinals are just a bit of a mess right now, and I don’t think it's the kind of mess that’s fixed by something as nominal as home field advantage. The Brewers just put up a convincing fight against an objectively better team out West and I think they can do so again in St. Louis. The Crew takes the series 2-1, if not an outright sweep.