The Milwaukee Brewers Have Created A Pitch-Tipping Advantage

Pitch-tipping has been a big topic for the Milwaukee Brewers over the last week. Robert Gasser saw his pitches being highlighted on Saturday by Andy Pages from second base. It appeared that Pages was able to gain an idea of what pitch was coming, giving Teoscar Hernandez all the information he needed to turn on a sweeper inside and crush it over the left field wall.

Afterward, Pat Murphy had this to say:

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“There’s a huge emphasis on making sure they can’t get your signs from second base,” Murphy said. “Pitchers have to be able to not give away anything. It’s gotten to be a science. Every team does it. We do it. Some teams do it less subtle than others. He got caught up and gave away some pitches, and it ended up hurting him.”

There are a variety of ways to steal signs. One of the most common is having a runner at second base who can see the pitcher's hand as it enters the glove, whether they grip it differently, set up differently, or make other mechanical tweaks for different offerings. Before the PitchCom system, this runner could also pick up on signs thrown down by the catcher.

It can also be exposed by the catcher getting set too early, showcasing locations, or even assuming different stances for different receiving locations. Most catchers switch between putting different knees down for different offerings at different times, and there can be hidden clues in there. William Contreras goes with his right knee down around 15% of the time, with his left knee down about 83% of the time, for example.

Again, after Saturday's game, Murphy spoke to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

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"When you go into your glove, for instance, you go into your glove and you’re used to gripping the ball a certain way, certain timing, maybe flash a little bit or maybe have more of your wrists showing," Murphy said. "Maybe it’s from your catcher. Maybe your catcher is moving too soon, maybe your glove angle is a bit different on off-speed compared to fastball. We had pitches tonight on the Dodgers, little things they did. There's a relay system in how you get that."

Eliminating pitch tips altogether is almost impossible, and you usually need the issue to be exposed before you realize there's a problem. The Brewers have dealt with it earlier in the year with both Brandon Woodruff and Trevor Megill, and they'll no doubt see things getting picked up throughout the rest of the season. One thing they can do, however, is maximize their own chances to pick up on tells from the pitcher/catcher, and minimize those opportunities for other teams.

How The Brewers Use Pitch-Tipping To Their Advantage

It should surprise absolutely no one that the Brewers are well ahead of this offensively. Since 2024, no team has faced more pitches with a runner on second base, and only the Mets and Diamondbacks have slugged more with a runner on second base (I'm using pitches as a barometer, as it gives less time for the runner on second to watch for any signs that they can relay to the dugout for future at-bats). On top of that, the Brewers far and away led the league in the difference between slugging with men on second base and their overall slugging for the year. 

Below is a graph showcasing weighted on-base average (WOBA) on second base against the pitches faced by a team with a man on second:

The Brewers rank third in WOBA since 2024 with a man on second base, and the sheer volume of pitches they see in this situation gives them ample opportunities to assess both pitchers and catchers for any clues or tells that might be coming, and relay that subtly to the man at the plate. Once something is picked up, the rest of the team can continue to observe this throughout the rest of the game, any time they reach second base, and it has an exponential effect. 

Slugging is valuable here as it implies hard hit contact and often of the aerial variety, something the Brewers aren't traditionally known for. Having a jump on a pitch allows them to get the bat head out earlier, and for people like Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, et al, that's all they need.

Overall, from 2024-2026, the Brewers ranked 14th in the league for slugging with a .398 mark in all situations, but if we narrow it down to a man on second base, they jump all the way up to fifth with a .428 mark. Contrast this with the Dodgers, who jumped from a .438 mark to a .446 slugging mark with a man on second base, and it seems the Brewers have identified something in this situation that helps them surge in power output.

So, is this a runner on base thing, or is it a man on second base thing? Well, if we isolate the stats over the 2+ years of this sample to men on base, but not including a runner on second, and the Brewers regress to similar positions in comparison with the rest of the league, ranking 12th in WOBA (0.329) and 16th in slugging percentage (0.426).

So to conclude, the Brewers are getting:

• More pitches with a man on second base than anyone else in the league
• A big boost to slugging percentage with men on second, both in raw numbers and compared to the rest of the league
• A smaller boost to slugging with men on base and no one on second, but not an outlier jump vs the rest of the league's performance

It almost seems as though having a man on second is their secret sauce. It's also something their offense is geared towards, with a number of speedsters who have good plate discipline and can reach first and steal second, or stretch a long single into a double. It's one reason they can survive without the home run ball, and why stealing bases and getting that extra base is so important to their offensive identity. So how does this play out on the other side of the ball?

The Key To Avoiding Pitch-Tipping: Keep Your Opposition Off Second Base

Defensively, the Brewers cannot control the tells their pitchers are showing, but they can make it a focal point to keep teams off of second base. They can also attempt to identify signs of pitch tipping internally before it becomes an issue, and we might be able to pick up some signs of that in the data.

It should again come as no surprise that the Brewers grade out exceptionally well here, too. They face fewer pitches than any team bar the Chicago Cubs, who they're almost neck and neck with, and lead the league in WOBA against when they find men on second base:

In fact, the Brewers are almost 30 points below the average wOBA league-wide, a monumental difference. Park factors can play into this (see Colorado in the top right), but the Brewers are evidently taking steps to mitigate pitch tipping. William Contreras has become an expert at controlling the run game, with the Brewers allowing a league-leading 17 stolen bases this year and having caught 16 would-be stealers. 

Murphy also mentioned that at times the catcher can be the source of pitch tipping, and it should be pointed out the lengths Contreras goes to in order to avoid being predictable. He's constantly twitching and moving around behind the plate, starting his glove in incorrect spots, dragging his glove in the dirt or up high, and using his athleticism to catch and frame the ball despite all of these moving parts. 

Here's one example, look at where he starts vs where he catches this ball back in 2025:

It should come as no surprise that, once again, it appears the Brewers are leading on the margins. Compared with the rest of the league, they've found ways to mitigate the pitches a runner on second base sees over the course of the season; they've got a catcher with the athleticism and nous to throw off anyone assessing his own positioning and techniques. They're also seeing more pitches with men on second, and they're capitalizing with higher gains in WOBA and slugging percentage than any other team in baseball during those situations.

The Brewers are leading the league in managing pitch tipping. Honestly, are we really surprised?