Could Brewers Sign Free Agent Spencer Turnbull to Jakob Junis-Like Deal?

10 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Last winter, one of the most unexpected moves the Brewers made was snaring a swingman coming off a promising but low-wattage season. Maybe they should replicate that approach this offseason.

Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

About a week after trading Corbin Burnes to the Orioles last winter, the Brewers turned around and made a surprising expenditure, signing right-handed hurler Jakob Junis to a one-year deal worth $7 million. It was an odd move, inasmuch as many onlookers had assumed that the primary reason for trading Burnes was to get rid of the eight-figure salary on which he and the team had agreed to avoid arbitration earlier in the winter. In truth, of course, the Crew traded Burnes not out of cheapness, but because they could never have recouped as much value by letting him walk in free agency and accepting a lone draft pick in return as they got by dealing him. Baltimore sent them Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a draft pick right around the one they would have gotten had they let Burnes leave with a qualifying offer this winter instead.

Having done that, the team actually reinvested all the money they had owed him. Junis was one post-Burnes signee; Gary Sánchez was, ultimately, another. They made a combined $14 million for 2024, although the accounting trick that is the mutual option allowed the team to push some of that real cost off into 2025. After trading Burnes, the team spent every dime they would have spent by keeping Burnes, and although neither Hall nor Junis was expected to replace Burnes, the long-term value they found in the bargain was impossible to resist.

This winter, the team is less likely to spend splashy amounts of money, before or after any trades to jettison committed salary. They'll trade Devin Williams, but in the wake of a change in their broadcasting distribution that will reduce their TV revenue substantially, they might not replace every dime they would have spent on Williams. Even if they do, it might need to be virtually their whole winter's worth of established external additions. They'll need to find the rest of their necessary improvements through players (like Brandon Woodruff and Christian Yelich) being healthier; young players getting better; and whatever talent they reel in by trading Williams, like Ortiz and Hall last offseason.

Let's assume, though, that they can sign someone to at least partially replace the payroll they'll offload by moving Williams. It would be nice if that player were a starting pitcher, too, because at the moment, that's the thinnest unit on the roster as they look toward 2025. Enter Spencer Turnbull.

The ex-Tigers righthander has been on the national radar before, but Tommy John surgery stopped his first attempt to break out. He'd just started to regain some juice in his new digs with the Phillies, when the injury bug bit again and he missed the entire second half of the 2024 campaign with a lat strain. He's a free agent, and everyone knows he has good stuff and the capacity to dominate. Yet, because of his checkered health record and lack of consistent big-league success to date, he's only projected to get $7 million on a one-year deal, according to MLB Trade Rumors. That's precisely what the Crew paid for Junis last year.

With Turnbull, though, the ceiling is higher, and the floor is lower. He has devastating stuff, with heat that can sit anywhere from 92 to 95 and touches 97 miles per hour, when he sinks it. More often, he uses a four-seamer, but that pitch itself is more akin to a cutter: it's not as hard as his sinker, it doesn't have much ride, and he definitely commands it better to his glove side. The two offerings are great partners to each other, too, and Turnbull's arsenal was really set off this season by his development of a sweeper that plays nicely off of each.

With that potent combination going for him, Turnbull had a 2.65 ERA before going down with the lat issue. It's clear not only that he can dominate opposing hitters, but that he can do so as a starter, with a mix that runs as many as six pitches deep when needed.

There are non-traditional and even risky things to this profile, even beyond the injury questions. As the large spread of those dots representing the movement of individual pitches hints, his sweeper and slider are pretty scattershot. He doesn't have the unfortunate habit some pitchers do, which is to hang that pitch, but he does miss so widely sometimes that the result is a non-competitive offering. As a result, he's run into some issues with walks in the past. Furthermore, other than his curveball (a fine but not primary pitch), he doesn't have a great way to truly change eye levels through movement alone. He struck out 26.1% of opposing batters in 2024, but his long-term rate is likely to come in lower. 

Without at least those yellow flags, of course, he wouldn't be available in the Brewers' price range. Turnbull isn't perfect, but he might be perfect for Milwaukee, where he could slide unobtrusively into the back end of the rotation. He's perfect for that role, because he has experience as a reliever, so if a young arm like Hall or Ashby impresses the team deeply in the spring, Turnbull can move to the bullpen. If someone gets hurt, though, the team would probably feel fairly good about sliding Turnbull up the hierarchy, toward the middle of the rotation. That sweet spot makes him a good fit, even if there's less money available this winter for that kind of reinforcement.

 

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Turnbull at $7M for 1 year would be the type of FA starter addition this team would make.