Despite Inconsistent Results, Shelby Miller Looks Very Close to the Reliever the Brewers Traded For

Shelby Miller's tenure with the Brewers is off to an inconsistent start, at least in the box score. After allowing a solo home run to Chicago Cubs rookie Owen Caissie at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, the 34-year-old has allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings and has been scored on in two of five appearances.

It initially appeared that Miller would provide some needed relief for the Brewers' existing late-inning arms, who shouldered heavily workloads through July. Instead, Pat Murphy has used him mostly in low-leverage situations, preferring to give Miller what he deemed "a little softer landing" after returning from a forearm strain and joining a new team at the trade deadline. It sounds like that process of working him in remains ongoing.

"He's only [had five] outings since early July, so he hasn't pitched a lot," Murphy said on Tuesday. "He didn't know exactly what his role is right now, and it's hard for him—new team, all that kind of stuff."

It might be tempting to draw parallels between Miller's first five outings and the Brewers' poor track record with trade deadline bullpen acquisitions since Drew Pomeranz in 2019. It's too early to assume he will join that list, though.

On a pitch-to-pitch basis, Miller has not been dissimilar from the guy who served as the Arizona Diamondbacks' closer before the deadline, posting a 1.96 ERA and 3.12 SIERA. While the home run pitch in his latest outing was an important mistake—William Contreras called for another splitter, Miller said, but he shook to a fastball and missed his spot—he struck out the other three hitters he faced, inducing 7 whiffs out of 11 swings.

"I think that's the only bad pitch I threw in that inning, and some damage was done," Miller reflected. "Other than that, I was on the corners below the zone and made some pretty good pitches."

"I thought he threw the ball good," Murphy said. "He'd like to have that one pitch back, but credit the hitter. The hitter did a hell of a job. He hit a ball 110 miles an hour to left center."

Most of the damage against Miller came in a three-run blowup in Milwaukee last week, in which his command faltered. His fastball, splitter, and sweeper are coming in at their usual velocities and shapes, and his arsenal is still getting plenty of the swings it's supposed to. For the most part, hitters have not looked all that comfortable against him.

"The one in Milwaukee, I was more sporadic, not throwing a lot of strikes," Miller said. "But outside of that outing, I've been feeling really good, and the stuff's been there."

Those deeper metrics are descriptive, not predictive. If Miller's inconsistent early results snowball into consistently worse command and sequencing, he will face lasting consequences. At this moment, however, it's not time to panic. He is much closer to where he should be than the surface-level numbers suggest.

"Sometimes it takes time to get right," Miller said. "But I feel like I'm really close, and the stuff's definitely there."