Did Trevor Megill Pass His Sunday Test to Regain Closer Role for October?

It wasn't exactly pretty, but it wasn't exactly the playoffs, either. Trevor Megill came in to pitch the top of the fourth inning in the Brewers' regular-season finale, with the team down 2-1 and nothing at all at stake for them. He carved through the Reds, with two strikeouts in a clean inning and just 12 pitches. He only induced one whiff, but he also got a whopping five called strikes in the very brief appearance. Most importantly, he walked off the mound healthy when it was over. He's almost certain to be on the team's roster when the National League Division Series begins Saturday.

What role he'll fill during that series, though, is much harder to peg. Megill's velocity was down significantly in the appearance, relative to where he's lived throughout his Brewers tenure.

He was still throwing roughly 97.5 miles per hour, on average, but for a guy who touches 101 when he's in a lather, that was a noteworthy dip. Losing the same amount of speed on the curveball says his arm isn't working quite the same way, overall, and it eats into some of his potential effectiveness. It's clear that while he felt well enough to return, Megill isn't 100% healthy.

You can also see that in the arm angle data, which shows us that his delivery was a bit altered.

That spike at the far right is the appearance Sunday, to the highest average arm angle on his fastball in any appearance this year. Megill got good when he permanently raised his slot in mid-2023, which you can also see happening in the image above—but that doesn't necessarily mean higher is better. Working too overhand is a sign that his body isn't quite working as usual, and it led to a lot of misses higher than he intended with his curveball.

Megill's movement was fine, and he showed the ability to spin the ball. As we identified just before he went down in August, though, poor command is how his body shows that it's not operating at top efficiency. That he couldn't drive the curve down and did get on top of the fastball a bit and pull it to the glove side makes clear that Megill isn't yet back to full strength. Something unwanted is still happening in his arm.

He'll have another week of managed rest and ramp-up behind him, by the time the NLDS begins Saturday. He might also get a tick back on the fastball at that point, because the adrenaline will flow much more freely when the crowd is 40,000 strong and in full playoff roar. That (and what he showed even while still partially compromised Sunday) is enough to instill confidence that he can help the Brewers during their playoff run, but he's not in such good nick as to make him the de facto relief ace for this first round. Until further notice, that honor still goes to Abner Uribe, who looks healthy, fresh, and nastier than the present version of Megill. For now, the Brewers need to treat their erstwhile closer as just another middle-relief option. Hopefully, he continues to regain his form and they stay alive long enough to reconsider that stance later in October.