How Caleb Durbin Could Be Milwaukee Brewers’ Playoff X-Factor

Even the most critical of fans would likely agree that Caleb Durbin had a solid rookie season. The 25-year-old doesn’t quite have the same compelling Rookie of the Year case as Cade Horton or Drake Baldwin, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a productive start to what should be a healthy big-league career. After a brutal offensive start that saw him finish May with a 78 wRC+, he turned things around and posted a 116 wRC+ from June 1 on. He played good defense at third base, accumulating 5 Defensive Runs Saved, and was Milwaukee’s fifth-most valuable position player by fWAR (2.6). Without him, the Brewers would not have set a new franchise win record this year.

But that was the regular season. In comparison, the postseason is the same sport, but a completely different game, and this will be Durbin’s first time getting a taste of the high-octane action. It can be daunting being a rookie in the postseason, but there are a lot of reasons to believe that he has what it takes to show up on baseball’s biggest stage.

Statistically, there are quite a few encouraging signs. First, Durbin had an .805 OPS across 109 high-leverage plate appearances (according to Baseball Reference’s definition), a slight improvement over his numbers in medium-leverage situations (.783 OPS) and a big improvement over his performance in low-leverage plate appearances (.635 OPS). If we want to take a more granular look at his splits, he also had an .883 OPS in late and close situations and an .810 OPS when the score was within one run. 

In other words, he knows when to lock in. Pat Murphy clocked this aspect of his personality all the way back in spring training when he talked about Durbin’s transition from being a middle infielder to manning the hot corner for the Brewers.

Outside of his clutch splits, his holistic offensive profile is similarly encouraging. To compensate for a lack of natural power and bat speed, he has become one of the best contact hitters in the league, whiffing just 13.0% of the time and striking out at a measly 9.9% clip. He may be a slap hitter compared to other sluggers, but he’s squaring up a third of his pitches, meaning he’s getting as much exit velocity as he can with his current bat speed. This is a great recipe for the postseason, as just putting the ball in play can often be enough to get on base and put runs on the board, especially with his speed and hustle.

But his most important character trait could be his resilience and adaptability. Durbin’s whole story screams unlikely. He was drafted by the Braves in the 14th round out of Washington University in St. Louis, a Division III program. After an okay first full season in the minor leagues, he was traded to New York in 2023 and started to find his groove, posting an .801 OPS over 194 Double-A plate appearances. Following another good minor-league season and two torrid campaigns in the Arizona Fall League, he was traded to the Brewers, where he was asked to start playing more third base while being 5-foot-7 and 183 pound—hardly the typical build for the position. Through all of the changes and obstacles, he persevered.

Being promoted to a major-league starter came with its own set of challenges, and the competition had never been stiffer. Still, he continued to push on, leaned into his own strengths rather than trying to be someone else, and finished strong. It goes without saying that during the playoffs, the pressure from opposing fans (and your own) reaches new heights, and for many, it’s too much to bear. Even some of the game’s greatest receive criticisms for failing to show up when it matters most.

Somehow, I get the feeling that it won’t be much of a problem for Durbin. Maybe it’s my personal bias toward him as a player, but the numbers back it up. He comes ready to play, doesn’t crumble under the spotlight, and will fight tooth-and-nail for every opportunity to help his team avoid another underwhelming first-round exit. With the Division Series kicking off this weekend, we won’t have to wait much longer.