Jackson Chourio is Forcing Selectivity

The Brewers want Jackson Chourio to chase less. He's been a more aggressive hitter than most, especially on a team that values swing decisions and has the second-lowest chase rate in baseball since his debut in 2024. In that time, Chourio's 34.6% chase rate is the 20th-highest among qualified hitters.

A hitter with Chourio's quick hands and raw power should be aggressive, because he can drive pitches that many can't. He's still been a solid hitter while chasing so much and walking so little, posting a career .273/.320/.461 line (115 wRC+). However, he often takes that aggression too far with poor swing decisions, and it's prevented him from blossoming into a star. He wants to hit, and it can make him jumpy in the box.

"I think it still comes down to the anxiousness to get [the at-bat] over with, the anxiousness to get to it," Pat Murphy said earlier this week. "He can get to so many pitches that I think it hurts him."

In Year 3, Chourio's plate discipline has yet to improve. If anything, it has gotten worse. His chase rate jumped from 31.9% to 37% last season. This year, it's still at 36.3%. What's more, the aggression on hittable pitches has disappeared. Chourio's in-zone swing rate is just 57.4%, down from 70.5% last year. Zone swing rate minus chase rate is not always the most telling metric, but by that measure, Chourio is making even worse swing decisions than Joey Ortiz, the Brewer most notorious for offering at the wrong pitches.

To get a good swing off in time, hitters must assume a pitch will be a strike and recognize when it's a ball, not assume it will be a ball and recognize a strike. As the pitch is delivered, the thought is "Yes, yes, yes, yes – no," not "No, no, no, no – yes." When Chourio tries to be selective, he seems to be starting with that "no" mindset, leaving him recognizing strikes he can punish once it's already too late to swing.

"When you're trying to get your ball-strike order, you end up taking your foot off the gas," Murphy said, "instead of keeping your foot on the gas, but really seeing what you want to see and knowing how to say no at the last second."

That's led to at-bats in which Chourio takes a hittable pitch for an early strike before chasing off the plate. Other times, he's being too passive with two strikes. He's making an effort to be more selective, but it's felt forced at the wrong times.

"I think he's trying to think through it and trying to be really good at it," Murphy said. "When you're trying to prove yourself, you're sometimes not being yourself."

The good news is that he is still producing, in part because he's crushing strikes when he does swing at them. Chourio is hitting .291/.354/.437, and his 125 wRC+ would be a career best. His 18.1% barrel rate would be among the best in baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboard. On Tuesday night, he recorded two well-struck hits by swinging at fastballs early in the count.

Chourio's skill set plays best when he's being aggressive. The Brewers don't want to take that from him, but they do want him to become more discerning at the plate. Balance is key.

"It's selectively aggressive. How do we get to that spot?" Murphy said. "On the way to selectively aggressive [are] some bumps in the road. I think that's what we got going on."