Luis Lara is a Big Leaguer: What to Expect

Following in the steps of Cooper Pratt, Luis Lara also signed a long-term extension this year. Lara signed a seven-year deal with $31 million guaranteed, with the potential to reach 10 years and $78 million with incentives and team options. After waiting nearly a month from the time he signed the deal to the day he got the call, he has officially arrived. The question now is, what should fans (realistically) expect from a rookie version of Lara at the big-league level?

Before diving too deeply into the production, one thing that is abundantly clear if you have ever watched Lara for an extended period of time is that fans should be expecting a ton of energy from him on a day-in, day-out basis. He plays with a lot of passion; hustle should not be a concern at any point.

As for what his production will likely look like, Lara's glove will almost certainly provide the most value early on. He was the 2025 MiLB Rawlings Gold Glove winner in center field, awarded to the best defensive player at each position in all of Minor League Baseball.

The scouting grades on the glove are impressive, as well. He received a future 60 grade (plus) from FanGraphs, and a 70 (plus-plus) from both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. He plays with reckless abandon, willing to crash into walls and lay out in the gap. He has improved his routes and his jumps every year, and there's an expectation that with regular playing time, he can be one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. Despite only standing 5-foot-7, Lara also has a plus arm and had 10 outfield assists in 2025, adding three more in Triple-A this season.

Lara's baserunning should be a plus. He's got plus straight-line speed, possibly closer to plus-plus. However, he has also improved his jumps on the bases. He doesn't quite have the same success rate that Pratt had in the minors, but he did steal 44 of 51 in Double-A last year, and was 24 of 31 with Nashville at the time of his call-up. The 86.3% number in Double-A is really strong. The 77.4% in Triple-A is still serviceable, but ideally, the Brewers will hope to see that number over 80%.

At the plate, there will be more questions for Lara early on. He got off to an incredible start at the plate this season, though there were a lot of signs below the surface that the production was not especially sustainable. For example, after his first 114 plate appearances of the season, he had already surpassed his career-high home run total with five, and was posting an incredible 1.000 OPS, with a .430 wOBA. However, his xwOBA was only at .291 at that point.

Over the course of the season, the xwOBA has closed the gap a bit, but it would still be a mistake to assume that Lara's surface stats in Triple-A will lead to immediate success in MLB. The chart below is courtesy of TJ Stats and clearly shows the difference between the production and the peripheral numbers.

One of the peripheral stats that shows as a clear positive is his very strong ability to make contact. His whiff rate was among the best at the Triple-A level, and he showed decent swing decisions as well. Those are two skills that should translate well in MLB—especially the bat-to-ball ability.

His previous career high in home runs was only four, but he already has nine in 2026. While there have been some signs of legitimate growth in the power department, a look at the quality of the contact in general, and even on his home runs specifically, points to some small Triple-A stadium flukiness in those home run numbers. 

Only three of Lara's home runs have left the bat at 100+ MPH, and three have been 95 MPH or lower. He does have enough power to get into a home run once in a while, but expecting much game power from Lara in MLB this season will lead to disappointment. There is a possibility that there will be more down the line, though, as he has pretty continually added strength and some power every year of his career.

One thing to keep in mind as well is that Lara has been much better from the right side this season, at least in terms of his contact quality. In fact, all three of the aforementioned 100+ MPH home runs were hit off of left-handed pitchers. This will lead to him getting a lot of playing time against lefties, which does make it a decent fit with the current roster, because Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell are both platoon candidates. 

Courtesy of TJ Stats

It will be interesting to see how often the Brewers get Lara on the field against right-handed pitchers, though. He still shows the strong bat-to-ball and swing decisions from that side, and it would be short-sighted to bring him up and only use him as the short side of a platoon. Assuming he does get semi-regular playing time against righties too, it would be safe to expect more of a line drive approach, with singles from that side, and if we see much power, it will likely come from the right side.

Lara handled fastballs and breaking balls very well in Triple-A. Changeups and splitters were the only pitches that gave him much of an issue; that could be something pitchers will look to expose more often in MLB. Despite the overall struggles against offspeed pitches, he didn't swing and miss at them any more than any other pitch; he just struggled to make quality contact. 

The odds of Lara hitting at a league-average or better clip in his rookie season are not especially high, though they are higher than Pratt's. Still, it would be wise to keep the offensive expectations in check. Lara is here for his defense and his speed. The hope is that there is enough immediate impact offensively to help this Brewers team right now.

Luis Lara is officially a big leaguer. Keeping expectations in check for the bat will be important, but this should be an exciting time for Brewers fans, and Lara will bring even more excitement to the field almost every night he makes it out there.