Nationals vs Brewers: Jesse Winker's Revenge?

The Brewers are enjoying another season at the top of their division, and the once-dismal Nationals have rebuilt themselves into a respectable team of young scrappers with high ceilings. Can the Brewers go into the All-Star break holding their spot atop the NL Central, or do the Nationals prove themselves heartbreakers once more? Let's break it down.

The year is 2014, veteran Aramis Ramirez, wily Carlos Gomez, and gritty Jonathan Lucroy are starting the All-Star game at Target Field in Minneapolis. If it feels like it’s been a long time since those players enjoyed their prime in Brewers uniform, it’s because it has been, and it’s the last time that the Brewers had multiple players on the starting lineup of an All-Star game - that is, until now. The talent-packed Brewers will send William Contreras and a resurgent MVP Christian Yelich to break that streak. Still, before they do, they’ll be tasked with defending their home turf against the Washington Nationals. Can the Crew hit the All-Star break with a head full of steam, or will an upstart Nationals team upend their ambitions? Let’s break it down!

Friday, July 12th
Washington Nationals vs. Freddy Peralta (6-4, 3.95 ERA)

It had been an upward swing for Freddy Peralta, having helped the Crew to three straight winning efforts before the ferocious Dodgers derailed that streak, limiting him to four innings pitched with three earned runs on four hits. It’s worth noting that it was far from a disastrous start against the Dodgers. Suffice it to say, the Washington Nationals pose a lesser threat and give Fastball Freddy a good shot at rebounding.

As of Thursday afternoon, the Nationals have not yet announced a starter for the series opener. 

Saturday, July 13th
Mitchell Parker (5-5 3.44 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (0-0 4.61 ERA)

Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker was added to the 40-Man in the offseason to keep him undrafted as a potential Rule 5 pick. Since his call-up in mid-April, it looks like a savvy move on behalf of Washington’s front office to have made that move. The K rate he put up in the minors (nearly 29%) isn’t quite as masterful as what he’s commanded so far in the majors (19.9%), but he’s limiting action by walking a sparse 5.5% of batters. 

Of all the scrap heap resurrections the Brewers front office pulled, none would be more impressive or unexpected than the acquisition of former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel. Lest we count our chickens before they hatch, so let’s examine the three starts he’s had in a Brewers uniform. The first was perhaps the most predicted outcome: five runs in four innings in a loss to the Rangers. In his next two starts, though, he pitched 9.2 combined innings and gave up only two earned runs (both in the first start against the Rockies). His golden days are behind him, but if there is some gas in the tank for the former ace, he might just be a valuable innings eater, if nothing else.

Sunday, July 14th
Jake Irvin (7-7 3.13 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (8-3 3.81 ERA)

If anything is an indicator of how the Nationals look right now, it’s the even seven wins and losses that follow Jake Irvin’s name. The 3.13 ERA might belie a bit of a weaker/luckier performance than he’s put up - the metrics are skeptical, but look no further than the pitcher he’s countering for a metrics-defying pitcher who is arguably putting up All-Star numbers. 

His most recent starts provide a satisfying symmetry to his overall record: one win, one loss, both against the Mets. The win was eight brilliant innings of shutout ball, and the loss was a six-inning, six-run drubbing. It will be interesting to see which Jake Irvin takes the mound against Milwaukee.

By the time the season ends, Colin Rea may have put together the most mystifying season I’ve ever seen from a pitcher. For the longest time, every projection said it was only a matter of time, and was long overdue, for Colin Rea to be figured out, and in start after start, he defied the odds. His last start may leave the long-puzzled prognosticators wondering if his time has run out or if it was an inevitable bump in the long, winding road of an otherwise impressive season. Rea surrendered seven runs in five innings in that start, cementing the loss. The previous game? Seven shutouts against the Rockies earned the win. It will be attractive to… you get the picture. 

Players To Watch
C.J. Abrams: The Nationals' sole All-Star representative isn’t on the roster officially. With a .859 OPS, fourteen homers, and just as many steals, the 23-year-old is living up to the hype that made him a centerpiece prospect on the Juan Soto to San Diego trade. His 3.6 WAR is quite a bit higher than Trea Turner’s 2.2, who was selected to start. 

Jesse Winker: The one-time All-Star had already been declining when he was acquired by the Brewers last year, but they figured his youth and repertoire to that point made him worthy of a bad contract swap with the Mariners in exchange for Kolten Wong. He didn’t deliver in a Brewers uniform, hitting a career-worst .199/.320/.247. The Nationals suspected there was more in the tank for Winker and signed him to a one-year $2 million flyer. Halfway through the season, Winker has made that contract look like a steal. Ten homers, a 137 OPS+, and perhaps a bit of a chip on his shoulder for his bygone team? We’ll have to see.

Christian Yelich: For no other reason than to admire the guy. The metrics like him, but let’s not even take the clinical, objective stance in this moment of respect and just appreciate who he is. For a few years, Yelich basked in the glow of MVP-caliber play, and right around the time his extension kicked in, he faced a sudden, difficult-to-explain drop-off. Everyone thought the glory days were over, and he might be an expensive vulture cannibalizing a small-market budget. But Christian Yelich is a baller, a grinder. Christian Yelich is that dude. He dug himself out of that hole and made it on the 2024 All-Star team and the starting lineup. Freeze this moment in amber, paint it in oil, and appreciate it for what it is: greatness. 

Brice Turang: We can’t discuss an All-Star without acknowledging the snubs. Perhaps no one was more egregiously absent from the roster than Brice Turang. Simply put, Turang has been amazing. A 4.0 WAR (third for all position players in the NL) and on pace for nearly 60 stolen bases doesn’t give you the same appeal as a shiny if not inconsistent bat ala Luis Arraez, who can hit with the best of them, but doesn’t have the easily overlooked Golden Glove talent like Turang possesses—next year. 

Predictions: The Nats are a pesky team, and considering the difficulty implied in the division they inhabit, they are probably more promising than their record suggests. That said, the Brewers have been a convincingly dominant team so far, and much of that comes from their ability to dominate incomplete teams. I don’t bet on a sweep, but the Brewers walk away with two wins.