Oliver Dunn's Whiffs Are Getting Between Him and His Strengths at the Plate

Oliver Dunn was a feel-good story out of Brewers camp. A post-hype prospect acquired in a minor trade with the Philadelphia Phillies in November, the 26-year-old infielder flashed the tools of a big-league power bat in Double-A last year. A strong spring training and a last-minute injury to Garrett Mitchell allowed him to crack the Opening Day roster and make his MLB debut.

Dunn’s calling cards are his power and elite eye at the plate. Both traits have followed him to the big leagues, but the results have not. Dunn entered Monday with a 52.3% hard-hit rate and an 18.7% chase rate. Both of those marks rank among the best in baseball, yet Dunn has scuffled to a .233/.273/.342 line (75 wRC+).

Most surprising is the low on-base percentage. Dunn’s eye made him an on-base machine in the minor leagues, but he has drawn just three walks on the young season (a 3.9% rate).

How does a patient hitter stop walking, while continuing to lay off pitches outside the zone at an elite rate? It happens when opposing pitchers start aggressively attacking the zone. A hitter cannot draw walks if he isn’t seeing many non-strikes.

Dunn has seen 59.5% of his total pitches in the strike zone, which would lead baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. The league average is 49.8%.

Pitchers feel comfortable being more aggressive against Dunn than against any other hitter, because he has yet to prove he can punish them for such an approach. Dunn has whiffed on 26.1% of his swings on pitches in the zone, which towers above the league average of 16.7%.

While strikeouts are nothing new for Dunn–he struck out at a 27.5% rate in Double-A last year–his swing-and-miss tendencies have proven so extreme against major-league pitching that they’ve drowned out the effectiveness of his strengths. Dunn’s quality of contact is strong, but his 37.7% strikeout rate has left his quantity of contact too low for consistently positive results.

Dunn has struggled against soft stuff, recording one hit each against breaking and offspeed pitches. While he has shown the ability to drive fastballs over the plate, he has also demonstrated a weakness against high-and-away fastballs.

Pitchers have exploited that hole in Dunn’s swing the most. According to TruMedia, 35.2% of the pitches thrown to Dunn have been high (the upper third of the zone and above), compared to the league average of 27%.

While his first month has not been discouraging enough to write off future success, it has indicated that Dunn could use more seasoning at Triple-A. That was the original plan before Mitchell’s injury raised a need for a left-handed power bat.

With Christian Yelich growing closer to a return, it could be Dunn, not Jake Bauers, who is sent to Nashville to open a roster spot. Joey Ortiz has earned everyday reps at third base, as has Blake Perkins in center field. Yelich’s return could push Sal Frelick into Dunn’s current role as the left-handed hitting option at the hot corner.

Until then, the Brewers will continue giving Dunn the chance to prove himself. He has started at third in each of the last four games, with Pat Murphy saying he wanted to “find out about him.”

Regardless of his standing in the infield mix, Dunn clearly has plenty of room for growth. It may be some time before he breaks through against big-league pitching.