Previewing the American League Through the Lens of the 2023 Brewers Schedule, Part I

As we did with the NL Central clubs and the other two NL divisions as a group, we’ll tier the American League out based on their playoff viability and the danger they pose to the Brewers, beyond that which any MLB team poses to any other in a two- or three-game series, just by showing up. We’ll also note when the Crew plays each team, for reference.

The Astros: Houston Astros
No man is an island, but the Astros are very much a tier unto themselves on the junior circuit. Even without Justin Verlander, and without having made any notable effort to replace the man who won the AL Cy Young Award, this team is better, deeper, and more complete than anyone else on that side of the league divide. 

At least, in the first iteration of the Houston dynasty, an opponent could take minor solace in the fact that their lineup leaned heavily toward right-handed batters. Now, there’s no refuge, and there’s no hope. Alex Bregman and José Altuve are counterbalanced by Kyle Tucker and Yordan Álvarez. Altuve broke his thumb in the World Baseball Classic, but his short-term replacement, David Hensley, could start for a dozen teams on a full-season basis. José Abreu has signed up to add further right-handed thump and excellent clubhouse leadership to a crew that hardly even needed it. All of that is not to mention exceptional up-the-middle defense from World Series MVP Jeremy Peña and Game 5 hero Chas McCormick, plus veteran backstop Martín Maldonado. That crew is all in support of the deepest and scariest pitching staff in baseball, a group that rendered some very good offenses utterly helpless last October.

The Brewers face the buzzsaw on May 22-24, but happily, they do have the privilege of hosting the defending champions.

Beasts of the East: Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
We need to applaud the Blue Jays. Despite a disappointing 2022 in which they fired their manager mid-season and lost in the Wild Card Series, they stayed as aggressive last winter as they have consistently been over the last few years. Undaunted by the poor returns on their huge investment in José Berríos, they signed another big contract for a starting pitcher, in Chris Bassitt. They pulled the trigger on a fascinating challenge trade, sending young catcher Gabriel Moreno to Arizona for slugging, dazzling defensive outfielder Daulton Varsho–who will play left field, because they also signed Kevin Kiermaier to take over in center. All of that shoves George Springer over to right field, where he might stay healthy for once.

If Springer can play even 140 games (a plateau he last reached in 2018), this lineup can be the most lethal in the league. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. had a down 2022 only by comparison to his unbelievable 2021, and remains a fearsome slugger at first base. Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and Alejandro Kirk give the team a balance of power and pure hitting that extends deep into the order. With a bevy of veteran starters and a high-ceiling bullpen, they’re only a half-step off the Astros’ juggernaut status.

Still, they’re only a narrow favorite in their own division, because the Yankees are going to be good, too. They’re much less exciting and fun than Houston or Toronto. Their biggest winter move was retaining Aaron Judge, who just had his career year. They brought in Carlos Rodón, but he’s already having slight injury trouble, and that three-word phrase tends to shorten to just one word in a hurry when Rodón is involved. The Yankees also allowed themselves to be outbid on some potential upgrades in left field, and will try to reclaim Aaron Hicks for a second time. 

Where they’re good, though, they’re very, very good. Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are a perfectly good duo atop the rotation, pending Rodón getting back on the mound and up to full speed. Judge and whatever subset of Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and D.J. LeMahieu can manage to be healthy at a given moment form a potent heart of the order, and the team infused some youth into the mix by handing the starting shortstop job to Anthony Volpe. The bullpen is less full of famous names than it was a few years ago, but it’s no less potent.

The Brewers visit both of these imposing foes, traveling to Toronto at the turn from May to June and to the Bronx in mid-September, in a kind of swap for the series in which the Yankees came to Miller Park last fall. 

Flawed but Formidable: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll try to go a little more quickly through the teams who have less clear outlooks, and this group begins that set. The Mariners have a young rotation without a truly weak link, so when the Brewers travel to Seattle April 17-19, they’ll see some nasty stuff. The Crew’s own starters (and relievers) will get to face a top-heavy lineup, though, one still missing a second superstar or a high-level supporting cast of any shape for Julio Rodríguez. 

The only AL team Milwaukee faces two different times, and for a total of four games, is the Twins. The classic rivalry will play out in Minnesota in mid-June, and then in Wisconsin August 22-23. While their rotation has a lower ceiling than does Seattle’s, the Twins have great depth in that unit, too, and they can hit better than Seattle can. Carlos Correa’s long offseason saga ended where it began, tying together a positional core that just needs good health to win the AL Central. (Alas, good health has been far too much to ask for the Twins the last two years.)

Speaking of good health, keeping everyone on their feet and on the field was one of the secrets to the surprising 2022 Guardians. Never bet on that repeating itself, at least without a longer track record of it than Cleveland has demonstrated. Indeed, they’re already dealing with more injury nervousness this spring, and although they have enough good players to weather a few losses, they didn’t spend enough money this winter to put the firewalls in place in case the injury bug spreads. The Brewers go to Cleveland June 23-25, which will be a pivotal juncture, leading into a month and a half of exclusively intraleague play.

The Rays are like the Guardians, but they’ve never had a year quite as lucky as Cleveland did last year. They take a few more risks, especially on guys with injury histories, and they understand that they’ll be bit by that strategy sometimes. In between those bad breaks, though, they can play some of the most beautiful and efficient baseball in the league. The Brewers are fortunate that they’re visiting the Rays May 19-21. At that time of year, in the Tropicana Dome, there’s no chance of one of those crowd atmospheres that turns Randy Arozarena into Superman. 

You Should Be Better Than This: Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels
No two teams more clearly belong to their own category than these. Both clubs have tons of talent, and they both try to supplement it. Neither can solve the cosmic mystery of translating having a bunch of good players into being an actually good team. The Angels made some genuinely solid moves this winter, not only acquiring Hunter Renfroe to shore up right field, but landing Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury to stop gaps on the infield. Still, they have a weak bottom of the order and a shallow starting rotation.

The White Sox are like the Angels, only the good stuff is worse and the bad stuff is also worse. They’re even less deep. They spent more on Andrew Benintendi than the Angels spent on anyone this winter, but Benintendi doesn’t really solve the team’s problems. They have three guys who have had dominant, ace-caliber seasons in MLB, in Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, and Lucas Giolito, but tellingly, it feels unlikely that any of them are going to have that kind of campaign in 2023. 

The Brewers have to travel down to the South Side to play the Sox in mid-August, but they get the Angels at home to close out April. In addition to giving home fans a chance to see Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout play, those games indicate a bit of a trend. Stay tuned. Later today, we'll talk about the rest of the AL, including when and where the Brewers play them.