Rather Than Go Big à la 2018, The Crew Should Wait Till Next Year

Brewers fans well remember the 48-hour stretch in January 2018 during which the Christian Yelich trade and the signing of Lorenzo Cain were announced. It was an incredibly exciting time for fans, who saw the team take the outfield from decent to one of the best in the majors (Ryan Braun and Eric Thames – no slouches at the plate – were the third and fourth options for the Crew), and those moves fueled a run to Game 7 of the 2018 National League Championship Series.

Fans are eager to see a similar one-two punch, given the pending free agency of Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames. But that very circumstance may make waiting until 2024-2025 to make the big moves worthwhile.

The 2024 Roster
With the signing of Rhys Hoskins to handle first base, the Brewers do not have any glaring holes in their roster. Tyler Black is likely to handle third base, since his bat has nothing left to prove in the minors. Brice Turang is a very good defender at second base (or even shortstop). Andruw Monasterio provides solid performance at second, third, and shortstop as the top bench option, with Oliver Donn, Owenr Miller, and Vinny Capra as additional depth on the 40-man roster. Brock Wilken could be poised to rocket up the minor-league system. Adames has shortstop locked down for at least the coming year. Catcher has William Contreras, perhaps soon to be joined by Jeferson Quero, and quite possibly Wes Clarke (who is more likely depth at first base and DH, but he's seen significant time behind the plate, and his bat is much better than those of Eric Haase and Austin Nola).

Outfield and designated hitter are more than covered by Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, and Christian Yelich. If Blake Perkins or Chris Roller see a lot of time in Milwaukee in 2024, things have deteriorated badly for the Crew.

Assuming a six-man rotation of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Colin Rea, and Aaron Ashby, the Crew is very solid there. That doesn’t include the Triple-A depth of Janson Junk (on the 40-man, but possibly NPB-bound) or non-roster invitees Evan McKendry, Carlos Rodriguez, Robert Gasser, and Jacob Misiorowski.

Then, of course, there is the bullpen, which rolls out Devin Williams, Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps, Trevor Megill, and Hoby Milner as the top late-inning options, along with long-relief ace Bryse Wilson. Further down, there is plenty of depth in the form of Elvis Peguero, Taylor Clarke, Clayton Andrews, Ethan Small, and Thyago Vieira. Keep in mind, Gasser, Rodríguez, and Misiorowski could end up in the pen sometime in the latter part of 2024 (see the Crew’s 2018 run).

At this point, the Crew looks pretty locked down for the season, and should be able to hold off the Cardinals, Reds, and Cubs for the NL Crown.

2025 Looks Less Settled
If the Crew of 2024 looks like a favorite for another division title, the 2025 Crew will have a lot more uncertainty. Burnes will definitely be gone via free agency, while there remains at least some chance of an extension or a re-upping with Adames. Both are top-15 players at their positions, and would be huge losses.

Contreras will be entering arbitration, and his performance will command a substantial (though still very affordable) price, even in his first arbitration year. Rhys Hoskins has an opt-out after 2024.

Wade Miley (assuming the option is not exercised) and Joe Ross will be free agents, putting a lot of the rotation depth on the shoulders of young pitchers. Peralta-Ashby-Rea is a step down from the Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta trio the Crew ran out to start 2023.

The Crew could also have to decide about whether to hold Williams and Freddy Peralta for a 2025/2026 run or deal them before they reach free agency, after 2025 for Williams and after 2026 for Peralta. (Extensions may not be options barring a resolution of the Bally Sports situation.)

Rodríguez, Misiorowski, and Gasser could very well end up in the 2025 rotation along with Peralta, Ashby, and Rea after their bullpen seasoning in 2024. Still, the team may want to hedge a little. Misiorowski could end up sticking in the pen (see Josh Hader) long-term, and Rea is unlikely to be around past next year.

The bullpen would see similar uncertainty, as Milner joins Williams as potential free agents after 2025. The Crew may want some blue-chip talent there behind Uribe.

That said, many key contributors or potential contributors would be in pre-arbitration years: Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang, Monasterio, Black, Quero, Uribe. There are other prospects who could rocket up the system (Yophery Rodriguez, Juan Baez, and Cooper Pratt come to mind), make their way up in a longer grind (see Ernesto Martinez), or otherwise break out (Wes Clarke).

The only major contracts, assuming Adames passes on a qualifying offer, would be Yelich’s $26-million salary, Miley’s $12 million (assuming a mutual option is exercised), $8 million for Peralta (assuming a team option is exercised), and about $17 million for Hoskins (provided he doesn’t opt out). This does not includes prospects forcing their way up the ladder in the minors.

In short, there will be more salary flexibility, even with the uncertainty of the Bally Sports collapse hanging over the Crew.

Overview
There is a very simple reason that Matt Arnold didn’t replicate the Yelich-Cain double move from the 2017-2018 offseason, beyond the difficulty of doing so: The Crew didn’t need to.

As things stand now, the 2024-2025 offseason could be much different. The Crew will be going in with a lot of good players but some potential holes, and could be looking to fill them for the long term, depending on how things go in the minors. They may also be seeking some relief for congestion at certain positions (outfield would be one, barring a move to first base or DH by Yelich, which then closes it off for Clarke/Martinez).

In short, Brewers fans who felt disappointed because they didn’t see a pair of big blockbuster moves in the 2023-2024 offseason have to just take some advice from the old Brooklyn Dodgers teams: Wait till next year.