Reds @ Brewers: Is Cincinnati A Contender Or Pretender In the NLC?

Friday starts an interdivisional matchup between two teams coming refreshed after an off-day. Replicating their respective seasons, the Reds split their two-game set against the Guardians, and the Brewers confidently took two of three against the Blue Jays. The Reds sit two games under .500 but are playing with some wind to their sails as they just executed a seven-game win streak that helped remind everyone just how talented they are. The Brewers hope to hop about the .500 mark in their most recent ten and pad their divisional lead. Which team will deliver on their aspirations? Let's break it down.

Friday, June 14th

Hunter Greene (4-3 3.61 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (4-3 3.95 ERA)
The series opener is an exciting match-up between two pitchers who drift in and out of and always hover around ace-caliber stuff. First up, the fireballing righty Hunter Greene. Drafted second overall out of Notre Dame HS, Greene was drafted as a two-way player who played a more-than-competent infield. His real appeal, though, showed up in the Futures game when his fastball touched triple digits. The hard-thrower eventually culminated in a torn UCL and the requisite long recovery, but since he returned, he has only honed his stuff and has become an increasingly potent threat. He’s enjoying the best season of his young career, sporting a 116 ERA+ and striking out more than a batter an inning. 

Despite the favorable things mentioned about his potential, the potential isn’t production, and the inconsistencies Freddy Peralta has put up this year have to be seen in an increasingly glaring light. He didn’t factor in the decision in his last start and he didn’t even manage four innings. In the 3.1 innings he pitched, he allowed four runs on four hits. However, the most alarming note about his game may be the five allowed walks over his short start. There have been instances of vintage brilliance for Peralta this offseason, making it difficult to predict which version will show up on the mound on Friday.

Saturday, June 15th

Andrew Abbott (5-5 3.28 ERA) vs. Bryse Wilson (3-3 4.19 ERA)
Reds lefty Andrew Abbott's promising rookie campaign in 2023 has blossomed into quite an impressive sophomore campaign. With the huge influx of young high-upside talent to hit Cincy in the last couple of years, it was easy for Abbott to get a little lost in the shuffle, but by employing a fundamentally sound four-seam forward repertoire, Abbott has been getting the job done. The big step up for Abbott thus far has been in suppressing power off the bat. Despite relying on his fastball for more than half of his pitches, he’s not going to strike many batters out, but he has great command and won’t walk many, either. Abbott has proven himself capable of going deep into games, pitching through the seventh inning several times this season. If the Brewers go to Abbott’s undoing, they’ll need to be diligent in approaching the plate.

The Tigers proved to fluster more than one Brewers starter as they got the better of Bryse Wilson in his recent start against them. They made it through only 4.1 IP while giving up an ugly seven earned runs. This is a reversal of the script for Wilson’s story thus far, who, previous to this start, had an impressive ERA suppressing 86% of batters left on base. The Reds are presently 27th in the league in batting average, so they could give Bryse a chance to reset his mind and get it right.

Sunday, June 16th

Frankie Montas (3-5 4.55 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (5-2 3.31 ERA)
Reds manager David Bell was quick with the hook for Frankie Montas in his most recent start. Montas faced the Cubs, recorded four outs, and gave up as many runs on the way to recording an L that would put a whimpering end to the Reds' seven-game winning streak. So far, it hasn’t been a spectacular season for the Reds opening day starter, who signed a one-year, $14 million contract in the offseason on the back of a fantastic latter half to his 2023 season as a Yankee. There have been some flashes of front-end quality, but he’s already had four starts so far where he’s been unable to reach the fifth inning. If his last start, the Brewers, get the diminished version of Montas, they should be able to readily feast.

It was an undeniably brilliant start for Colin Rea against the Blue Jays on Monday. Seven shutout innings pitched, three hits, no walks. The longer the season stretches on, the more you have to wonder if the unfavorable peripherals will truly show up in Rea’s stuff, but it’s also not easy to buy into the 4.58 xFIP weighed against his 3.31 ERA. Still, despite the lack of strikeouts and the non-elite walk rate, you can’t deny one of the most objectively dominant pitching performances the Brewers have put up all season long. The paltry Reds offense will give him a chance to solidify that reputation.

Players To Watch
Elly De La Cruz: The Reds offense may not have inspired a lot of confidence in last year’s fiery young, up-and-coming team, but one player who’s held on to the thunder is 22-year-old Elly De La Cruz. In half as many at-bats as he had in 2023, he’s hit nearly as many home runs (427/13 and 286/11, respectively) while barrelling at an intimidating 12.4%. He’s also putting on a defensive clinic, and just for good measure, his sprint speed last year was 30.1 feet per second, which is good for FIRST in the league! Truly electric. 

Stuart Fairchild: Viewed less for his statistical prowess and more as a microcosm for the team in general, Stuart Fairchild is finding feisty ways to produce. It’s Fairchild’s third big league season and fourth big league franchise, and in the grab bag of tricks he’s using to endear himself to fans (and hopefully inspire a front office to keep him around), he’s repeatedly defying baseball orthodoxy and bunting for hits, robbing home runs, hitting an inside-the-park homer. The sort of pesky energy the Reds are showing up with seems to have found a vessel in Fairchild.  

Willy Adames: If there’s still any uncertainty as to whether or not The Kid is pricing himself out of Milwaukee, it has to be fading quickly. A shortstop on pace for roughly 30 home runs is a desirable piece for any team, and that he’s so much a heart-and-soul of the team archetype of a player only makes him that much more lovable. Miracles can happen, but it seems more likely than not that Adames will hit a much-deserved free-agency payload to play elsewhere. Let’s savor Adames and his five tools while we have them.

Jackson Chourio: We’ve already seen one big name, Jackson, rise to the majors only to be demoted once it seemed he was out of his depth. I’m not saying Chourio looks as off-balance as Holliday did. Still, for a team that, at this point, is undeniably in a pennant race, one has to wonder how many at-bats the Brewers can afford to expend on Chourio’s development. The other side of the coin is that the once-future cornerstone of the Orioles is now rumored to be a potential trade chip after struggling in the minors post-demotion. Would the Brewers be taking as big of a risk in deflating young Chourio? The answer for both players is that it's far too young to prognosticate. Still, in the sensitive and vulnerable era of rookie development, the building up and tearing down of a player's confidence can be pivotal in determining the player they become.

Predictions
It’s hard to deny the potential of a team stacked with so much potential as the Reds are, so I’ll go with what I think is more likely: the Brewers winning two of three and extending their lead over Cincinnati in the National League Central division.