Brewers Video
Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper. Playoff offenses are buffeted by batted-ball luck, but the best of them have players on whom you can rely to make quality contact over and over again.
The Milwaukee Brewers have bats that have shown flashes of white-hot power throughout this year: Willy Adames, William Contreras, Gary Sánchez, Rhys Hoskins (certainly early in the season), Jackson Chourio and even Garrett Mitchell have shown some serious pop when they hit a hot stretch. We saw in August how damaging this Brewers lineup can be with even two of these bats going haywire, but of the group, you could argue that only Adames and Chourio have shown consistency in their day-to-day offensive production.
You expect home runs to come in bunches, and for there to be dry spells. The problem the Brewers have is that their lower-octane, contact-oriented hitters are equally streaky in how they rely on batted-ball luck. Brice Turang is a prime example, with his early-season form masking a .530 OPS since Jul. 1. Joey Ortiz has had some struggles as well, after a neck injury around midseason, and looks the part of a rookie working out what his plan is at the plate; he owns one of the lowest in-zone swing rates in baseball.
Turang, Ortiz, Sal Frelick and Jake Bauers all have OPSes under .620 since Aug. 1, meaning the offensive output in that month was more despite them than because of them. The lower third of the order hasn’t been contributing for a while, and it means when those streaky bats dip even slightly, runs can become relatively scarce. Of these hitters, only Turang can lay claim to some batted-ball misfortune, with an expected average 42 points better than his actual number.
Earlier in the season, a big reason for the Brewers success was their ability to get speedy players on base and wreak havoc. Turang, Frelick, Blake Perkins and others all caused mayhem and magnified the quality at-bats from the sluggers behind them. Their underpowered bats best profile by avoiding fly balls and keeping the ball either on the ground or on a line. Turang has actually improved in this regard, with a fly ball rate down to 15%, better sweet spot launch angles and similar exit velocities to his first two months. Some better fortune could see Turang be a menace in any series, just as he was in the first month of the season.
From their mix at second base, third base, and center field, there has been a marked decrease in production from the first three months to the latter half of the summer:
They’re getting half as many home runs and a batting average of just .205, from players with such strong bat-to-ball skills. One culprit is regression to the mean, after overperformance in the first half of the season. Throughout the season, each has shown themselves capable of a hot couple of weeks and good OBPs, and for the Brewers to fully function, they will need some bounces to fall their way once more with the contact hitters.
It’s difficult not to think of the difference a healthy Christian Yelich could have made as a consistent producer alongside Chourio, but the Brewers have to manage the cards they’ve been dealt. That means getting the most out of Turang, Ortiz and Frelick. A lineup with multiple consecutive holes can torpedo a playoff lineup, and it could spell another early exit for the Brewers in October. Streakiness is the Brewers' best hope, but thankfully, it's something they've seen from both their more powerful producers and their lesser lights. The question is: Can they find it at just the right time in October?
What do you think of the production from Ortiz, Turang and Frelick? Has it disappointed you and given some concern for the playoff offense? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
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