Series Preview: Brewers at Rays

It must be interesting to be a Tampa Bay Rays fan. Their payrolls certainly are not as robust as their recent list of feats and playoff appearances, as even the Brewers have outspent the Rays by more than $40 million total in the last two years. Milwaukee cut payroll by $14 million entering 2023, and still figure to outspend the Rays by more than $10 million. Do the Rays need to spend, though? They are the Twitter egg saying "well actually, you don't need to spend to win" personified as an MLB club. 

What's interesting about the Brewers and Rays is that both clubs have come to prominence in similar ways over the last 15 years, snapping gruesome streaks in 2008. Tampa Bay, of course, was the dreadful expansion club that leapt from worst to first with the 2008 World Series runner-up, thanks (in part) to a surge onto the scene by lefty David Price, while Milwaukee snapped their generation-long playoff drought with their own legendary southpaw performance. From 2008 onward, the small-market clubs are exemplars of winning and not tanking within MLB, although the Rays certainly raise more eyebrows with their payrolls.

2008-present Rays: 1,267 wins entering 2023, with eight 90+ win seasons and one -70 win season, resulting in eight playoff seasons ($1.1 billion payroll, 2012-present). Their best playoff achievement was two American League pennants (2008, 2020).

2008-present Brewers: 1,204 wins entering 2023, with four 90+ win seasons and one -70 win season, resulting in six playoff seasons ($1.3 billion payroll, 2012-present). Their best playoff achievement was two National League Championship series appearances (2011, 2018). 

One of my closest friends always used to opine with me about how baseball is essentially about failure. I thought of that the other night, watching Brian Anderson and Joey Wiemer absolutely crush some mistakes. These guys spend years of their adult lives working to hone their respective crafts, day in and day out, grinding 0-for-4 days and demotions and trades to simply be ready to crush their mistake when they see it. Baseball is a beautiful pastime because it is about routine and repetition, and at its best, it is about how excellence can burst forth from routine and repetition. From a 30,000-foot view, the success of the Rays over the last 15 years might seem less pronounced. When considering win total; would you have guessed that their exceptional small-market franchise has only won 63 more games than the Brewers over this long span? The shape of those wins, however, the distribution of those wins, appears more severe when you look at playoff appearances, and playoff success.

Neither team won a title over the last 15 seasons. Was it all failure? Half the time, the Rays put forward a 90-win club. The Brewers reached the playoffs once every three years on average, and they made the League Championship Series twice in a decade. That's better than their expected odds, if you assume a smooth distribution of playoff appearances throughout the entire league. But leagues are actually uneven, of course; the Rays need to craft their success within the brutal competitive environs of the American League East, while the Brewers have been able to hang out in the less daunting National League Central. 

The Brewers spent $1.08 million on each of their wins over the last fifteen years. The Rays didn't even spent $870,000 per win. How do they do it?

Expected Records

Tampa Bay Rays (33-12 expected record):  277 runs scored / 156 runs allowed. +77 runs scored / +40 runs allowed. 118 to 120 expected win pace.

Milwaukee Brewers (22-21 expected record): 183 runs scored / 182 runs allowed. -6 runs scored / +7 runs allowed. 81 to 83 expected win pace.

How do you build a 120-win core?

I looked at this question because it's the most interesting possible aspect of this series I could cover, besides the general look at how both of these small-market clubs have operated over the last 15 years. If you follow publications like Baseball Prospectus, the Rays have been known as a darling MLB player-development system for quite a while. For example, the Brewers had their very best system in recent memory entering 2023, and the BP staff covered 16 prospects; in 2022 the Brewers had 17 prospects covered; and in 2021, only 12 prospects covered. The Rays list was capped at 20 prospects covered in 2023; 20 prospects covered in 2022; and entering 2021, maybe to win a bet, BP covered 27 Rays prospects. In 2021, current Rays ace Shane McClanahan was ranked the sixth-best prospect in their system. Luckily for the Brewers, just like the Rays, they graduated their top three 2021 prospects to their 2023 MLB club. Unfortunately for the Brewers, those prospects were not Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, and Shane Baz (although I guess the third slot for both clubs, Aaron Ashby and Baz, were doomed for 2023 to begin with, due to injuries).

Entering 2021, Baseball Prospectus identified eight Role 55 prospects outside of the top 10 for Tampa, plus another four prospects with the "throw a dart" moniker. By comparison, the 2021 Brewers system had four Role 55 prospects total. (Overall Future Potential Roles typically span a 20 to 80 scale, where a Role 50 prospect is projected to be an MLB average role player. For reference, Mario Feliciano, Tristen Lutz, and Antoine Kelly were potential Role 50 prospects in 2021, with varying levels of risk assigned to that grade). 

So, the following list is frustrating. But it's a look at the top-performing Rays batters (their entire starting lineup is batting with an OPS that is better than league average) and their biggest bulk inning pitchers. What is perhaps most impressive about this Rays club is that they are achieving so much success with a relatively high number of pitching injuries (Baseball Reference demonstrates that they currently have three 2023 contributors on the 60-day injured list, plus injured arms like Baz who have never hit the MLB mound this year). 

I highlighted "homegrown" players in bold to demonstrate that even in an elite player-development system like the Rays, a ton of talent enters the MLB club from outside the system. In fact, even the relatively weak (in terms of homegrown talent) Brewers club has nearly as many homegrown players on their 2023 roster as the Rays. Current homegrown starters and high-inning pitchers for the Brewers are Corbin Burnes, Peter Strzelecki, Tyrone Taylor, Brice Turang, Joey Wiemer, and Devin Williams.

C Christian Bethancourt acquired via trade, July 2022 (depth trade)

1B Yandy Diaz acquired via 3-way trade (Carlos Santana / Edwin Encarnacion trade. Tampa Bay traded away Jake Bauers and cash, by the way)

2B Brandon Lowe was drafted by the Rays (3^rd round, 2015). The Brewers drafted Cody Ponce ahead of Lowe

3B Isaac Paredes acquired via trade, April 2022 (Austin Meadows traded away)

SS Wander Franco was signed by the Rays as an elite bonus amateur free agent ($3.8 million)

LF Randy Arozarena acquired via trade, January 2020 (Rays traded away Matthew Liberatore, Edgardo Rodriguez, and 2020 supplemental second-round pick)

CF Jose Siri acquired via 3-way trade in August 2022 (Trey Mancini deal). Tampa Bay traded away Jayden Murray and Seth Johnson.

RF Josh Lowe was drafted by the Rays (1^st round, 13^th pick, 2016). The Brewers drafted Corey Ray ahead of Lowe.

DH Harold Ramirez was acquired via trade, March 2022 (depth trade with the Cubs)

LHP Shane McClanahan was drafted by the Rays (1^st round, 31^st pick, 2018). The Brewers drafted Brice Turang ahead of McClanahan.

RHP Drew Rasmussen [currently injured] was acquired via trade, May 2021 (the Willy Adames deal!)

RHP Zach Eflin was acquired via free agency entering the 2023 season

RHP Jeffrey Springs [currently injured] was acquired via trade, February 2021 (depth trade with Red Sox)

RHP Taj Bradley was drafted by the Rays (5^th round, 2018). The Brewers drafted Aaron Ashby ahead of Bradley.

LHP Josh Fleming was drafted by the Rays (5^th round, 2017). The Brewers drafted Brendan Murphy ahead of Fleming.

RHP Yonny Chirinos was acquired as an international amateur free agent ($10,000 bonus, 2012).

RHP Kevin Kelly was purchased from the Colorado Rockies in December 2022.

LHP Jalen Beeks was acquired via trade, July 2018 (Nathan Eovaldi trade)

RHP Jason Adam was acquired via free agency entering 2022.

The Gist

For all the presumed bad vibes of the Brewers, they have a 6-4 record following their six-game losing streak as April turned to May. So I suppose you could say they are 6-10 in their last 16, but I'm trying to be positive here. The numbers say that the Rays should lap the Brewers, but Tampa Bay is on a 4-6 stretch of their own over their last 10. There's no better time for the Brewers to right ship for the month of May than to make a statement against a tough opponent.