Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, 4/8-4/11

After back-to-back interleague series, the Brewers now tackle their first four-game series of the season, and it's four contests against the frisky Reds. There's a promising youth movement on in Cincinnati, but are their talents refined enough to take on the Crew, or raw enough to be overcome? Four games, even this early in a campaign, can be crucial for division championship hopefuls. Will it be win, lose or draw for the surging Crew? Let’s dig in.

Monday, April 8th
Aaron Ashby (0-0 0.00 ERA) vs. Graham Ashcraft (0-1 3.00 ERA)
The year is 2022, and immediately after signing a four-year pre-arbitration extension, Aaron Ashby begins to show wear on his shoulder. This would affect his performance drastically enough that he’d end the season in the minors, and eventually need surgery. In his 2023 rehab starts, he posted an ugly 15.43 ERA, making the front office's decision to keep him in the minors during the Brewers postseason push an easy one. It’s frustrating for Ashby and management alike, but this call-up, which comes by way of Jakob Junis hitting the IL, could provide an avenue for redemption.

It was a slow start for Bryce Harper to begin the season, until Graham Ashcraft took to the mound. Two of Harper’s three homers that day came against the Reds' burly righty, and while some early season analysis could be considered a fool’s errand, there is legitimate cause for concern in the fact that Ashcraft’s stuff isn’t fooling anyone or missing bats. At present, Ashcraft is in the bottom one percent of the league with a hard-hit rate at a grim 77.8%. This is a problem he ran into for long stretches last year, too. It's inauspicious, to say the least.

Tuesday, Apr. 9th
Joe Ross (0-0 0.00 ERA) vs. Frankie Montas (2-0 0.77 ERA) 
Little (if anything) can be gleaned from Joe Ross’s first start, save maybe some slight cynicism as to how rotation-ready Ross’s long-dormant arm might be. It was an interesting 11-out sample size that Ross authored, though. There was activity on the bases, but the sinkerballer managed to keep anyone from scoring in his no-decision. Relying on a sinker-slider profile and pitching to contact, Ross will have to pitch with a bit more efficiency and hope the infield stays on their toes if he’s going to be a successful member of the rotation. 

The Reds raised some eyebrows in the offseason when they signed Frankie Montas to a one-year, $16-million deal. Aside from that not being an insignificant amount of money for the Reds front office to dish out, Montas has had a bit of an erratic career to date. At the outset of what looked to be an elite season in 2019, Montas got popped for PEDs and was suspended for 80 games. In 2021, Montas pitched to a redemptive sixth-place finish in Cy Young voting, which the thrifty A’s leveraged into a trade to the Yankees. It was there the righty saw his career come off the rails a bit, as he posted a 6.35 ERA in his first year with the Yanks. With labrum surgery and the bright lights of New York behind him, Montas is now pitching for the Reds on a one-year contract to prove himself, and so far he’s doing exactly that. With two starts in the bank, he’s allowed just one run and struck out nine opposing batters. The promising start does hide a concerning peripheral indicator: batters are making hard contact against him. The sparkling start is going to lose its veneer if Montas can’t find a way to blunt that exit velocity.

Wednesday, Apr. 10th
Brewers Pitcher TBA vs. Hunter Greene (0-0, 2.53 ERA)
As of Sunday evening, Milwaukee has not yet announced their starting pitcher. Notably, though, Wade Miley's rehab start in Nashville was on Friday, so this would be regular rest for him.

One of the first bright spots to come up with for the Reds in their wave of prodigious talent was Hunter Greene. The former second overall draft pick ascended to the majors thanks to his impressive velocity, but his potential to overpower major-league batters has yet to come to fruition. In his first two years, Greene had a strong whiff rate, but walked his fair share, and when players did make contact, they consistently barreled the ball. In the young stages of his 2024 campaign, the trends have turned in Greene’s favor, but his success will depend on his ability to miss bats and exhibit control. 

Thursday, Apr 11th
Freddy Peralta (1-0 3.09 ERA) vs. Nick Martinez (0-0 7.20 ERA)
After five commanding shutout innings against the Mariners in his last start, Peralta wavered in the sixth and was tagged for three runs before being taken out of the game. His four-pitch mix gives him some variety, but Peralta still relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it nearly 60% of the time. The light-hitting Mariners were eventually able to catch up to him, so a more formidable batch of Reds youngsters may prove a challenge, especially in the Great American Bandbox.

Reds righty Nick Martinez is in the first year of a two-year deal with Cincy, and so far, it’s safe to say he hasn’t found the groove that gave him the confidence to opt out of his previous deal with the Padres. In his most recent start against the Mets, he pitched five innings and gave up as many runs, on the back of eight hits and a walk. His first start against the Nationals didn’t go much better. If that logic tracks against two teams with offenses that have been performing considerably worse than Milwaukee’s, the door could very well be open for the Brewers to completely dominate in this game.

Players To Watch
Spencer Steer: The batch of youngsters Cincinnati saw come up and affirm themselves as immediate mainstays in the lineup last summer was a sight to behold. Behind the eye-popping power/speed combo in Elly De La Cruz and the constant hitting of Matt McLain, infielder Spencer Steer’s very competent season didn’t find the spotlight as much as it deserved.

McLain is injured to start the season, and Elly hasn’t yet found his mojo at the plate. Meanwhile, Steer is approaching a full WAR without having played ten games, thanks to his 1.426 OPS to start the season. Tread lightly.

Frankie Montas: As detailed above, it’s a bit of a redemption year for the Reds righty. He’s managed himself well through two starts. Most recently, he pitched through the battery of crushers that comprise Philadelphia’s lineup, emerging with a solo home run as his only blemish. That said, the exit velocity batters are mustering off of him might suggest he’s just one good scouting report away from unraveling. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this solid start, or if the Brewers can bash their way to victory.

Oliver Dunn: Speaking of unheralded rookies, Oliver Dunn has come up and hasn’t been able to stop hitting, posting an impressive .278/.381/.825 line to start his rookie campaign. Dunn is not a homegrown product, having been acquired from the Phillies early in the offseason for Hendry Mendez and Robert Moore--two prospects coming off disappointing seasons. Aside from hitting, the former 11th-round draft pick has so far rewarded the Brewers' faith in him with some flashy glovework, and in the series against the Mariners, he hit his first career home run.

William Contreras: Acquired with almost inexplicable ease before the 2023 season, Contreras took no time at all to prove himself an invaluable asset in the Brewers lineup. His bat essentially makes him irreplaceable, but as this article pointed out, the early data suggest potential erosion in his generally stellar receiving prowess. It’s not common, but high-caliber framing skills have disappeared on players in the past. Brewers fans need look no further in their past than Jonathan Lucroy to see how quickly glory can fade when a catcher starts missing pitches. Obviously, it’s far too early to raise the alarm on Contreras’s defense, but it’s not to early to keep an eye on things.

Predictions
Sweeping a four-game series is hard for any team, but the Brewers have been playing with impressive vigor to start 2024. The Reds, on the other hand, are playing a bit more erratically, having come within one late-inning rally of being swept by the Mets in their most recent series. I think the Brewers win this series, taking three from the Reds.

What are you watching for in this key early test for the Crew? How do you think they'll come out of this series? Jump into the conversation below.