Series Preview: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4/2-4/3

A one-hitter on Opening Day against a star-laden lineup is an undeniably impressive opening salvo for the Brewers to have fired, as they took down the Mets in their first game of the season. Follow that up with two more wins for a road sweep, and it’s hard not to feel a pretty solid dose of optimism, despite being just three games into the campaign. The AL Central looks miserable this year, but if there is one legitimately competitive team, it’s the Twins, and they bring their talents to AmFam on Tuesday. Let’s break it down.

Tuesday, Apr. 2
Jakob Junis (0-0, 0.00 ERA) v. Louie Varland (0-0 0.00 ERA)
Signed at the beginning of February, righty Jakob Junis will make the first start of his one-year pact with the Crew. Junis has been serviceable, putting up the middling production you’d typically expect to see in a fourth starter. Last year, at age 30, Junis put together his best year, predominantly out of the pen. His 3.87 ERA was built on solid control, vital for a pitcher with a sinker/slider profile. If he can keep these numbers together out of the rotation, expect this low-risk contract to look like a bargain.

Opposing the Crew is Louie Varland, brother of former short-term Brewer, Gus. Varland was born and raised in the Twin Cities, and drafted by his hometown team in the 15th round of the 2019 Draft. The Minnesota product finds himself in the rotation by way of a season-ending flexor tendon surgery for Anthony DeSclafani, but it isn’t his first rodeo in the show. Debuting in 2022 and showing up for a brief stint last year, Varland has thrown 94 innings to the tune of a 4.40 ERA. Serviceable back end of the rotation stuff to be sure, but at only 26, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take a step forward this year.

Wednesday Apr. 3
Joe Ross (0-0, 0.00 ERA) v. Chris Paddack (0-0 0.00 ERA)
A former first-round draft pick, top prospect and two-time Tommy John is the exact kind of bargain the Brewers front office might try to seek out and resurrect, and former Padres and Nationals hurler Joe Ross is exactly that. Ross hasn’t played in the majors since he pitched for the Nats in 2021, after which he was diagnosed for the second time with a torn UCL. The 5.79 ERA he put up in the minors last year isn’t going to turn heads, but the uptick in his velocity might. Obviously, the Crew felt they saw enough promise in Ross to offer him a one-year major-league deal. With so much at stake, expect Ross to be pitching like his baseball life depends on it.

And would you look at that? It’s another former top prospect with two Tommy John scars on their arm. Yes, former promising Padres (that team again) righty Chris Paddack finally returns to the mound, to see if he still has what it takes to spin some magic. He did look strong out of the pen in a tiny sample size with the Twins last year, but with mixed results. At 28, it seems Paddack is not above tinkering with his repertoire, hoping his new slider can help him return to his previous top form.

Players To Watch
Austin Martin 
This should have read 'Royce Lewis,' but after crushing a home run and hitting a single, Minnesota’s prodigious infielder injured his quad running the bases in the third inning of the season. Enter Austin Martin: picked by Toronto fifth overall in the 2020 Draft, before being flipped to the Twins as part of the trade for José Berríos. Not without his own injuries, Martin hasn’t played even 160 games over the last two years in the Minnesota system. That said, when he has been in the lineup, he’s put up a very competent .263/.387/.405 slash line, which is a solid perk to go along with this most shining strength: positional versatility. Martin has played shortstop, second base, center field and right while in the minors, so it seems pretty likely he’ll be slotted somewhere into the lineup over the two-game stretch against Milwaukee.

Carlos Correa
Before last season, the last time Carlos Correa had a season in which he was worth less than 2.0 WAR was the pandemic-shortened 2020, wherein he still managed an impressive 1.7 WAR over only 58 games. Last year, he produced even less than that over 135 contests--this after being a contract volleyball bounced between San Francisco and New York. Both teams found his physical exam revealed issues too troubling to overlook, so he returned to the Twins, with whom he’d had a very successful 2022. The concerns were focused on his ankle, but he was thwarted for much of 2023 by plantar fasciitis, instead. The Twins shortstop figures to be playing with a chip on his shoulder, so the Crew’s encounter with him may prove a brief but relevant showcasing of where he’s truly at.

Christian Yelich
Some fireworks centered on Rhys Hoskins provided almost enough pop to cover up the fact that Yelich looked rejuvenated and strong at Citi Field. That and the fact that he already has more outfield assists (one) than he had all of last year (none) suggests that the Brewers' big-money man is healthy and fully functional this spring. Obviously, three games isn’t enough to extrapolate anything in the marathon of a full season, but Yelich is off to a promising start.

Rhys Hoskins
Scrappy drama aside, Hoskins channeled some of his fiery side into absolutely demolishing a ball down the left field line a day after his late slide inspired a benches-clearing staredown on Opening Day. They haven’t been without some promising mashers at first base, but it feels like an elite presence has been absent from the position since the glory days of Prince Fielder. Is Hoskins elite? The numbers wouldn’t suggest it, but he’s long been looked at as a second-tier star at the cold corner. Can he reach the next level in the weaker NL Central? Time will tell. 

Predictions
I’m going to be bold here and say that the Twins are entering the Dairyland deflated. The Crew, on the other hand, is coming in charged up to open in front of a raucous home crowd. I think the Crew wins both games.