Series Preview: Red Sox at Brewers, April 21-23

What a decade the Boston Red Sox have had. While other MLB clubs are adhering to competitive models that purposefully accelerate boom and bust cycles, the Red Sox have seesawed between winning and losing seasons while seemingly trying to do just the opposite. The typical competitive cycle, according to the Astros, Cubs, and similarly ruthless teams, is to undergo several years of losing and low-cost MLB roster development in order to procure elite draft picks and build through the farm system. Both the Brewers and the Red Sox buck this model.

The Brewers, under previous president David Stearns, eschewed this roster strategy by using everything but the farm system to construct a series of competitive clubs. If you compare the Brewers' most competitive rosters under Stearns to the remainder of MLB, he relied on trades and free agency to a much greater extent than minor-league development (via the draft and international amateur signings). It is somewhat ironic that, through his tenure, he took time to slowly build an offensive prospect development system, In his parting gift, the 2023 Brewers offense now has three homegrown prospects (Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, and Joey Wiemer) and two more waiting nearby (Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick). 

The Red Sox exhibited a seesaw development and roster construction pattern following their 2013 World Series victory, going from first to worst to worst to first within a four year period, setting up yet another World Series victory in 2018. After another quick downturn, the Red Sox visited the League Championship series in 2021, and then were rewarded with a last place finish in a hyper-competitive American League East in 2022 (they finished in fifth place with 78 wins!). Of course, unlike the Brewers, the Red Sox are a major media market behemoth, and have become somewhat notorious for trading away Mookie Betts and allowing Xander Bogaerts to walk. Of course, those contrarians who swore they liked the Betts trade for Boston might look smart in 2023, as Alex Verdugo's early season offensive surge makes it look like the post-hype prospect is putting it together at the MLB level. Repeat after me: Baseball player development is rarely linear, and often exhibits long, winding paths.

For all this lack of tanks and rebuilding, the Red Sox are on a developmental upswing, ranked 23rd by Baseball Prospectus organizational prospect rankings in 2022, and 11th entering the 2023 season on the strength of their hitting prospects. Brewers fans will see the Red Sox second-best prospect (according to Baseball Prospectus) in Tristan Casas, who is looking for a true power breakout to reach his ceiling as a slugging first baseman. In this regard, the Brewers and Red Sox are quite similar, as Milwaukee's farm climbed from 19th to 14th on the strength of Chourio's development and the proximity of Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, and Wiemer to the MLB. 

All this is to say, if this series feels like the meeting of two "weird" clubs, it absolutely is. It's not hard to squint and see core players from the 2021 League Championship Series Red Sox on the 2023 club, including Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Enrique Hernandez, and Christian Arroyo in the field, plus Tanner Houck, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, and Garrett Whitlock in prominent pitching roles. Unlike the Brewers, who are playing in a relatively easy division, the Red Sox must be hungry to improve on their 2022 campaign and prepare themselves for the ridiculous gauntlet that is the American League East. They might be the worst club in the East, but they could be close to the best club in the National League Central. Life is hard.

Expected Records

Boston Red Sox (10-10 expected): 111 Runs Scored / 108 Runs Allowed. +10 Runs Scored / -8 Runs Allowed. 83 to 84 win pace.

Milwaukee Brewers (13-6 expected): 95 Runs Scored / 60 Runs Allowed. +11 Runs Scored / +23 Runs Allowed. 110 to 113 win pace.

The Red Sox enter the series on a strong streak, having won three of four games against the Angels and a series victory against the Twins at home. In their last seven games, they have scored 40 runs against 35 runs allowed. This puts the Red Sox much closer to a 90-win pace than their overall season record demonstrates.

Usually, 10-game west coast trips are the stuff of nightmares, but the Brewers finished their recent swing with seven wins (!!!). In their absurd sweep of the Mariners, the Brewers scored 18 runs against 11 runs allowed. 

Most Prominent Bats (70+ Plate Appearances)

Boston Red Sox: Justin Turner (87 PA, .257 / .356 / .351, 96 OPS+); Alex Verdugo (86 PA, .338 / .407 / .481, 144 OPS+); Rafael Devers (83 PA, .269 / .313 / .615, 148 OPS+); Enrique Hernandez (80 PA, .229 / .313 / .400, 95 OPS+)

Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich (87 PA, .234 / .322 / .377, 91 OPS+); Willy Adames (85 PA, .254 / .365 / .465, 126 OPS+); Brian Anderson (76 PA, .273 / .342 / .455, 116 OPS+); Rowdy Tellez (70 PA, .237 / .329 / .508, 126 OPS+)

Raise your hand if you had Christian Yelich and Brian Anderson out-slugging Justin Turner to start the season...

It's also interesting to note that, despite the call-up of three homegrown bats, the Brewers' absolute best and most relied-upon bats demonstrate the front office's strategy over the last few years: Yelich, Adames, and Tellez all acquired via trade, and Anderson a free agent. Notably, both Tellez and Adames are trade acquisitions made possible by blocked MLB paths with their former clubs, and/or change-of-scenery trades. Now, both appear to be flourishing in full-time MLB roles in Milwaukee. 

Top Four Pitchers

Boston Red Sox: Tanner Houck (4 GS, 21 IP, 10 runs allowed); Kutter Crawford (4 G, 18.3 IP, 9 runs allowed); Chris Sale (4 GS, 18 IP, 17 runs allowed); Corey Kluber (4 GS, 18 IP, 17 runs allowed). 

No, those aren't type-o's for both Sale and Kluber...

Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Lauer (4 GS, 23 IP, 11 runs allowed); Corbin Burnes (4 GS, 22.7 IP, 12 runs allowed); Wade Miley (3 GS, 18 IP, 3 runs allowed); Freddy Peralta (3 GS, 17 IP, 6 runs allowed).

Top Relievers

Boston Red Sox: Josh Winckowski (7 G, 14 IP, 3 runs allowed); Ryan Brasier (11 G, 11.3 IP, 11 runs allowed); closer is Kenley Jansen (6 G, 6 IP, 0 runs allowed)

Milwaukee Brewers: Bryse Wilson (5 G, 11 IP, 2 saves, 2 runs allowed); Peter Strzelecki (9 G, 8.7 IP, 1 run allowed); closer is Devin Williams (6 G, 6 IP, 0 runs allowed)

Two fun things to watch this series: 

(1) All will be well in the universe if the stars align for Peter Strzelecki to face Josh Winckowski during a high-leverage game in Milwaukee

(2) Will this be the series that either (or both) of Devin Williams and Kenley Jansen allow their first runs?

The Gist

This series will be fun for a lot of reasons. First and foremost, there's little to no pressure on the Brewers following their exceptional road trip. There's really no danger in a series loss, as the road trip went better than anyone could have expected. But that makes this series a bit of a trap for the Brewers, as well; the Red Sox are playing better than their overall record shows. In a way, it's kind of a strength-versus-strength series, in terms of the Brewers pitching versus the Red Sox bats. The question is whether Milwaukee bats can take advantage of the uneven Red Sox pitching staff.