The Five Keys To Playoff Success For The Milwaukee Brewers

For the sixth time in seven years, the Milwaukee Brewers have had a bite of the apple. However, since their 2018 run to the NLCS, the Brewers haven’t won a playoff series in October. Each variation of the team was unique in its way. Still, it seems safe to say that this Brewers unit is markedly different, if only because of the reduced reliance on the dominant starting pitching of recent years.

The playoff rotation isn’t set in stone, and it’s likely that, outside of Devin Williams and Freddy Peralta, there will be a lot of mixing and matching based on feel and data from the season, which may put a strong emphasis on Pat Murphy. It also relies on what the Brewers have had all year, with everyone doing their bit, whether offensively in the big moments, getting key outs in pressure situations, or that slick defensive unit that saves runs time after time. 

That being said, there are some identifiable patterns for the Brewers in their performances this season that should translate to the playoffs.

Defensive Sturdiness/Miscues

Quote

For us, it's in games that we execute and we do the little things right, we play a clean game, we're really tough to beat. But when we don't do that, tha's kind of when it goes sideways a little bit for us. - Christian Yelich

Every team goes through its ups and downs in the regular season, but there has been a discernible link between the defense and the end result throughout the season. The Brewers have the 17th-best strikeout rate in baseball, meaning they need that defensive unit to perform like a top-10 outfit. Things tend to go sideways fairly rapidly when that doesn't happen, and there is no better example than Sunday vs. the Diamondbacks. The Brewers may have ended up winning, but things can escalate when you follow a catcher’s interference with a sloppy piece of play like this. And boy, did they escalate to the tune of a seven-run inning.

What could have been a double play ball resulted in just one out while also keeping a hitter on second base, where, unbeknownst to them at the time, the Diamondbacks caught Frankie Montas tipping pitches.

What could have been a double play ball resulted in just the one out while also keeping a hitter on second base where, unbeknownst at the time, the Diamondbacks caught Frankie Montas tipping pitches.

Ortiz is not often prone to such mistakes, and the Brewers do have an elite defensive unit, ranking 3rd in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 4th in Outs Above Average (OAA). However, they have had games where yips take hold, and each of their infield spots can become error-prone. This cannot happen if the Brewers are to go deep in October.

Bunting and The Contact Play
Managing in October is a fine line to walk across. It’s entirely okay to be quick on the hook if things go sideways, especially with the Brewers' bullpen. On the other hand, Murphy may need to resist the urge to meddle with his hitters at the plate. A big concern is how much Murphy leans into the bunt play in big situations, the success rate, and what the Brewers are looking to achieve. Bunting for a hit is absolutely okay if the infield is on their heels, but we have seen numerous times over the last few days how the Brewers have continued to bunt even with Eugenio Suarez in their face.

The issue may extend past Murphy and onto the players who have tended to go to the bunt in the most significant moments, almost as a way of deflecting the spotlight off them. 

The other issue is that for a team with such a fondness for the contact play, having a corner infielder that close to the batter can be a recipe for disaster. The nuances of bunts' effects can be numerous and potentially detrimental. The Brewers, when they have a chance with the runner at third base, need to run this play almost by the book.

Willy Adames had a brain-dead moment while on third with no outs to run into an out on the basepaths when he had a contact hitter in Brice Turang up next. It was a baffling decision, and the Brewers were lucky in such a tightly contested game that it didn’t cost them a win.

In a big moment with momentum so crucial in a playoff series, the choice of bunting or not, running or not, could either hurt or propel the Brewers. Pat Murphy has to strike a balance between trusting his players' abilities and eking out a run of the manufactured variety.

Can The Starting Pitching Get Through Unscathed?
The Brewers' likely three-headed rotation for a wildcard series is some combination of Tobias Myers, Freddy Peralta, and Frankie Montas. In getting through an order on the first two occasions, all three of them have an OPS against of under .700 and have been highly effective:

None of the above, however, have been good when facing a lineup for the third time when hitters seem better to foul off good offerings and square up mis-located pitches. None of them should expect to go through the top of the lineup a third time based on success this year with relatively quick hooks for all involved. 

Additional wrinkles may be thrown into the mix, such as left-handed openers or even right-handed ones, to negate facing the top of the lineup even twice. The Brewers, with the array of arms at their disposal, can go in a lot of different ways, but getting through this period relatively unscathed will be pivotal when facing some of the best arms in the sport.

Playoffs can be a great equalizer, but the Brewers lack an arm that can shut down the best lineups for 6+ innings, and as such, they will have to compensate for this. How effectively they can get through the first half of the game, however, they set themselves up to do it, will be critical.

Hot, Streaky Hitters Baby (With A Floor)
One reason the Brewers' early exit from the playoffs in 2023 was a lack of thump in the lineup despite consistent traffic on the basepaths. The Brewers just couldn't get that big hit to open the scoring up compared to a Diamondbacks offense that just cut loose.

The Brewers in 2024 have configured themselves to be pesky, fast, and powerful as a collective offense. As with all offenses, however, there is a penchant for going as Hot and Cold as Katy Perry, but the Brewers have managed to control such slumps far better than most teams in the league. They can score in various ways, but at the end of the day, they will need that thump to show up with men on base to stamp some authority on the 2024 playoffs.

Rhys Hoskins may be heating up. Willy Adames is streaky but a game-changer in big moments. Jackson Chourio has been elite for most of the season now. William Contreras and Garrett Mitchell have been firing on all cylinders. Not to mention the potential of Gary Sanchez and Jake Bauers running into a ball.

They can hit the long ball in a way the 2023 offense did not, but whether that shows up in a short series with potentially only two games is anyone's guess. That's where the grinding, tough at-bats to get on base will pay dividends for the Brewers, who can find a way to scratch across 3-4 runs even if their offense doesn't fire as planned. That high floor is incredibly valuable in the playoffs, but make no mistake, if the Brewers are to make a deep run, they'll need their big moment, big power hitters to turn the screw.

Confidence, Belief, and a Fast Start
The biggest spotlights test the mentality of players more than anything else. This Brewers squad is young, and many are in uncharted territory, or at least barely charted territory. It would be safe to assume that nerves flying can cause doubt, insecurity, and tension that disrupts every little movement on the field. How Pat Murphy and the veterans in the Brewers clubhouse can manage this will be integral to their success, creating a relaxed atmosphere that edges towards excitement over fear.

However, there is only so much you can do from the clubhouse, meaning the Brewers leaders on that field need to set the tone. After scoring that first run, Adames spoke of a belief at 8-1 down against the Diamondbacks. Getting on the board early will relieve much of that tension; however, they do so. A young team can easily be swept up quickly in the momentum of a series, and it's going to be absolutely vital that players come out and perform to a level they're capable of. 

The Brewers have struggled offensively in previous playoff iterations, meaning how they score runs will be the subject of the most intense scrutiny in the build-up to the wildcard games. There will be pressure, and how they rise to that pressure will be fascinating to follow, especially with a boisterous crowd at their backs.

What do you think are the Brewers' keys to success in October? Have you any specific players you think are vital to the cause? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!