The Third 54 Report: Resiliency and Youth Will Take You Far

Going into the game, you wouldn’t have been inclined to call it a Bucket Three game. Corbin Burnes was going for the Crew, against fifth starter David Peterson of the Mets. That seems like such a mismatch that it should be an easy win for Milwaukee. As we know, though, that isn’t how baseball really works. Fifth Brewers starter Wade Miley got the win over future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer on Tuesday night. Moreover, the Mets’ lineup can be lethal. 

Still, when Joey Wiemer cracked his go-ahead three-run home run in the bottom of the second, it felt like a killing blow. Burnes was staked to a healthy lead, and a comeback from the Mets on getaway day seemed unlikely. The unlikely occurred, immediately. A Pete Alonso home run in the third tied it, and another in the fifth gave the Mets a 6-4 lead, sending Burnes to the showers with a season ERA of 9.64. 

That’s when this became a third-bucket game. When your ace is staked to an early lead, then gives it back and is chased after 13 outs, it’s a bitter and avoidable loss, if you lose. If you win, though, it’s especially sweet, and a chance to generate momentum by increasing the collective confidence of the club. Remember the premise of this series: Every team will win 54 games, and every team will lose 54. It’s what you do with the other 54 that matters. Winning games like this one, which falls squirrely into the third 54 and has extra emotion attached to it, can start to forge a truly special team.

It made a huge difference that the team wasted no time in effecting its comeback. Christian Yelich’s leadoff walk is easy to overlook, because Peterson missed his spots badly on three of the pitches that led thereto, but Yelich was also patient on the two he threw just off the outside corner, even after one of them was called a strike. That walk pushed Peterson out of the game, and there was a subtle shift back toward the Brewers. Coming into a dirty inning, Drew Smith did a good job using the pitch clock to hold Yelich at bay as a would-be base thief, but he wasn’t fooling anyone. Sticking strictly to high fastballs, he did get William Contreras to fly out by slightly getting under the ball, but he hit it hard. So did Luke Voit, and his was on a line enough that Yelich scooted around to third.

Brian Anderson didn’t make himself the hero this time, but his patience did help the team out a bit. He saw six pitches and worked a full count, giving Jesse Winker a long look at Smith from the on-deck circle. Winker fell behind 1-2, though, as Smith floated in a first-pitch changeup and got a foul ball from Winker on an outside fastball. On the fourth pitch, another changeup that ran off the plate away, Voit stole second, trying to draw a throw and get Yelich home with the fifth run. The Mets didn’t throw through, electing to worry about Winker instead. That seemed a strange choice.

If Omar Narvaez had thrown through, Voit would have been out. Sure, Yelich might have scored first, but New York would have held the lead, and they’d have been just 12 outs from a win. That’s still a long journey, but as long as you have the lead, that’s the path the game is on.

Instead, trying to keep the lead at two runs, Narvaez cost New York dearly. He failed to account for the possibility of what happened four pitches later: a double. Winker fought off a slider in the zone from Smith, having watched him use the same pitch to lock up Anderson for the previous strikeout. He laid off one more high fastball, and fouled off one that was too close to take, and then he got another changeup, left up over the plate, and crushed it into the gap in right-center field.

Jesse Winker continues to be a Mets fan favorite pic.twitter.com/9hRLFQ3DBt

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 5, 2023

If Voit is still on first base when Winker hits that ball, he might not score. It was a 3-2 count, so he would have been off with the pitch, giving him a chance, but Starling Marte also has a terrific arm, and he reached the ball quickly. Once Voit elected to try for the steal of a run, the Mets should have thrown through to take the out, and let the question of whether Yelich could get home before Francisco Lindor ran down Voit resolve itself as it might. 

That was the pivotal sequence of the game. The team aspect of it, the immediate response to adversity, and the fact that Milwaukee’s bullpen is better than New York’s made the game feel eminently winnable as soon as Voit crossed home. Indeed, the team’s top four relievers combined to get 14 outs and allowed just one baserunner, and then Garrett Mitchell stepped up in the bottom of the ninth and added to both his own legend and the good feelings around the whole young core of which he’s a part.

The Brewers have had a near-magical start to 2023. This is their second notable comeback win, and they’re making Miller Park a very exciting atmosphere. Presumably, the park will be packed this weekend as they face the Cardinals, and another series win would put the team into the driver’s seat for the division title, even if the drive ahead remains unfathomably long. For now, they can savor a crucial and wonderful win.

Third-Bucket Record: 2-0