The Turbulent Flight of Joel Payamps Has Finally Come In for Smooth Landing

In 2023, Joel Payamps was an integral part of the Brewers bullpen. He was the main setup man for the team, pitching to a 2.55 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 26.8% strikeout rate. His four-seam/slider combo was great, and allowed him to achieve both strikeouts and mostly soft contact, boasting a barrel rate in the lowest decile of qualified pitchers. He started to show some concerning signs toward the end of the year, conceding six earned runs in just 9 ⅓ innings pitched in the final month, but after 1 ⅔ innings of scoreless relief in his lone postseason appearance, Payamps entered this year as a projected linchpin of the Brewers pen.

Unfortunately, it wasn't long before the lingering issues from the end of last year began to rear their ugly heads again. His first-half ERA of 4.41 pushed him lower and lower on the reliever depth chart, leaving many to wonder if he’d be relevant or even on the team down the line. After all, with a bountiful haul of arm talent in the farm system, it didn’t seem like he’d be very hard to replace.

The main cause for his regression seemed to be his four-seam fastball. The high-level numbers said it was resulting in too much hard contact for it to be effective.

While the opposing batting average increased by a considerable amount, it was still .176, still somewhat palatable for empathetic fans. The opposing slugging percentage, on the other hand, had nearly doubled, while the home run rate had more than tripled. 

Payamps doesn’t have wicked velocity on his fastball, averaging roughly 95 mph on the pitch, so he has to rely on great command to get through the day. In 2023, his command of the high fastball was excellent, creating a lot of swing-and-miss while limiting damage. 

Because of the excellent command at the top of the zone, Payamps had similar splits between RHB (1.40 ERA) and LHB (1.93 ERA) last year and it worked extremely well with his slider that covered the bottom edge of the zone. 

In the first half of this year, Payamps tended to leave his fastballs slightly too low, landing many of his pitches in the heart of the zone, explaining the thunderous homers he was conceding. I believe these are what some fans like to call "meatballs."

It also created a heinous platoon disadvantage. He gave up zero hits and just two walks while striking out 10 of the 15 batters whose plate appearances ended on the fastball. Against the 21 lefties he faced, he gave up six hits, three of which were homers, while striking out just eight. 

It’s hard to say for sure whether these fastball issues were directly responsible for the regression in other pitches, since the command for his slider has been relatively consistent throughout the season. However, his sinker was seeing similarly disastrous results against lefties, a possible indicator that poor command was indeed a root of his broader issues.

Jumping to the second half, it seems Payamps found his way back to his old self. He saw notable improvement against lefties, and while he’s still leaving a few pitches over the middle of the plate, it’s not as egregious as it was before the All-Star break.

As a result, the second-half numbers on his fastball have looked significantly better, and his second-half ERA has plummeted to 1.16 over 23 ⅓ innings, capped off by 7 ⅓ scoreless innings so far in September. 

The best part of this in-season resurgence is that it’s just in time for the playoffs, and can help compensate for other bullpen arms who may be feeling the pain of a full, 162-game season. No Brewers reliever with more than three innings pitched in the second half has a better ERA than Payamps, and previously rock-solid pitchers have started to sputter--like Jared Koenig (3.91) and Trevor Megill (4.40 ERA).

With his recent performances on the mound, Payamps has gone from irrelevant to a potentially key member of the October squad. Is there still a chance he’ll fall back into old habits, leave a few fastballs out over the plate, and fall short when it matters most? Of course, but the evidence instead suggests that he’s left his old self back in June.