Trevor Megill Has Been Excellent for Brewers, Except in One Key Area

Outside of a shaky first month, it has been another solid year for Trevor Megill. Now the Brewers’ undisputed closer, he has a 2.64 ERA with 19 saves, on pace to comfortably surpass what he accomplished last year. There’s plenty to be happy about, especially for a player costing the team less than $2 million this year, and while almost everything is moving in the right direction, one aspect within his arsenal could be a cause for concern.

Like many relievers, he throws just two pitches: a four-seam fastball and a knuckle curve. The latter is a notoriously difficult pitch to hit, boasting a whiff rate of 56.8% and a slugging percentage against of just .250 this year. With late and sharp downward movement, opposing hitters are often left looking foolish while swinging over it.

However, despite having similar metrics on the pitch in 2024, it wasn’t his most valuable weapon. That award went to his four-seam fastball, which generated four times the run value. This came as no surprise since he threw it more than 70% of the time and averaged 98.8 mph with 18 inches of induced vertical break. 

In 2025, he’s throwing it just as hard with even more induced vertical break (19.2 inches, to be exact), but a few key statistics have shown year-over-year regression, not improvement.

Normally, this wouldn’t be a huge deal. As stated earlier, he’s still having a great year. However, it’s a clear weakness in his game and hitters are starting to notice. In his most recent outing against the Marlins on July 4th, he threw 21 fastballs. Eight of them were called balls, four were called strikes, and eight were fouled. Velocity wise, he got up as high as 101.3 mph, but he still failed to generate a single swing and miss.

We saw a similar story in his outing during his June 29 against the Rockies. Of the 12 fastballs he threw, he generated no called strikes and just two swinging strikes. In what was ultimately his third blown save of the season, a fastball that was chased outside of the zone by Thairo Estrada was the nail in the coffin. Even on pitches that are located off the plate, guys are finding a way to get their bats to the ball.

One could argue that it was actually the home run he gave up to Orlando Arcia on a knuckle curve that spelled his doom, but that’s exactly what the bigger issue is. With only one effective offering, it’s not nearly as difficult for hitters to use an approach that works. 

We may already be seeing cracks in the ice. In May, Megill posted a 0.90 ERA over ten innings. In June, he posted a 3.18 ERA over 11 ⅓ innings. Reduced effectiveness also means reduced efficiency and higher pitch counts in each appearance. Prior to May 26, there was only one appearance in which he threw more than 20 pitches. Starting with a grueling 34-pitch inning against the Red Sox at the end of May, he has since had five outings with more than 20 pitches (although one of which was admittedly for two innings). 

Baseball demands frequent adjustments, and it’s difficult to survive in the big leagues if you don’t adapt. In a constant game of cat-and-mouse, pitchers and hitters struggle to gain an upper hand on each other, exploiting even the most minor mistakes. Based on his recent performance, it seems like Megill is more on the hot seat than one might initially assume. If he wants to remain a dominant bullpen presence through the second half, something with the fastball will have to change to get him back to peak form.