Welcome! Craig, Is it?: Cubs at Brewers, May 27-30

Milwaukee managed a bit of redemption on their way out of Boston, stealing two out of three against a very good set of pitchers and managing to have only one benches-clearing incident. Despite the lousy overall road trip, they return home to face the team closest to them in the division, with a roomy (but still surmountable) 3.5-game lead. The Brewers have their home turf and a bit of momentum on their side, but the Cubbies will certainly be champing at the bit to reverse their current trajectory. Can the Crew defend their home and their lead, or will the North Siders find some redemption of their own? Oh, also, it’s Craig’s first time back, but who cares about that? Anyway, let’s break it down.

PITCHING MATCHUPS
Monday, May 27th
Justin Steele (0-2 5.68 ERA) vs. Robert Gasser (2-0 2.65 ERA)
For all of the things that have broken right for the Cubs in 2024, Justin Steele is an exception. After finishing fifth in Cy Young voting last season, Steele was a dark-horse candidate for many to climb all the way to the top this season. After a hamstring injury cut short his Opening Day start and sidelined him for a month, he’s been unable to put the pieces together in 2024, and as of his last start before June, he’s yet to record his first win. Wins and losses aren’t metrics by which to judge a starting player (look at Jacob deGrom’s best years for proof) but even on that front, he appears quite diminished from the pitcher he was. That said, he’s young and clearly capable of brilliance. He’s definitely not a presence on the mound to take for granted.

The Marlins tagged Gasser for four runs over six innings in his last start. He was scheduled to pitch Sunday on regular rest, but was replaced by Tobias Myers and bumped to Monday instead. The Brewers rarely miss a chance to stretch out the rotation and grab a fifth day of rest for starters, believing it will keep them healthier in the long run. Despite the one shaky start, the rookie lefty is broadcasting confidence, stating that “it’s just really cool that I get to pitch in a rivalry game for the first time in a minute” and that he’s “ready for the Cubs”. With his xwOBAcon at a stunning .269, it’s believable that Gasser has what it takes to suppress the Cubs' bats and lead the Crew to victory.

Tuesday, May 28th
Ben Brown (1-1, 3.20 ERA) v. TBD
Between Shota Imanaga, Steele and Javier Assad, you hear conversations debating who’s the true ace of the Cubs rotation. Absent from that conversation is the 6-foot-6 righty, Ben Brown. This isn’t necessarily a mystery, given that the 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP aren’t exactly eye-popping, but the 130 ERA+ is a notable accomplishment by any rookie. Expect the fireballing righty to put up a good fight for his Cubs.

As of Sunday evening, the Brewers have not yet announced a starting pitcher for Tuesday’s game. The healthy options on the 40-man roster at Nashville are Aaron Ashby and Janson Junk, but neither has looked good even in Triple-A settings this year. At the moment, returning DL Hall from his rehab assignment as one fresh arm in a bullpen game feels most likely. Failing that, we could see a lot of Enoli Paredes and/or Mitch White, after which either would become a strong candidate to be designated for assignment.

Wednesday, May 29th
Shota Imanaga (5-0 0.84 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (3-3 3.81 ERA)
I wrote about Imanaga as a player to watch in this series, but I really can’t stress enough how true that sentiment is. There are two feelings with which to watch him: fear and admiration. On the first count, he’s literally the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now. He’s only 30, and he’s a member of the most competitive rival the Brewers have lurking in their division. That sentiment bleeds into the second one: the sub-1.00 ERA isn’t by virtue of insane good luck or a small sample size. Imanaga has proven himself each and every time he’s taken the mound. He’s an absolute force, and even if he’s kicking your butt, you kind of have to appreciate how exquisitely he’s doing it.

It was a nice rebound for the de facto Brewers ace in his most recent start, as he held the Marlins to just one run over seven innings pitched in what would ultimately be a tough-luck loss. Prior to that, Peralta had given up 11 runs in his last 16 innings pitched. If there's one way Fastball Freddy could affirmatively convince fans that he's still as dominant as he'd ever be, it would be to dice up Cubs bats as relentlessly as he's shown himself capable of doing in the past.

Thursday, May 30th
Jameson Taillon (3-2 2.58 ERA) vs. Bryse Wilson (3-1 2.86 ERA)
For a time last season, it looked like Jameson Taillon’s contract might mirror that of Tyler Chatwood - a high-ceiling hurler who can’t find his stuff and eventually regresses into the dubious distinction of being an expensive swingman. This year, though, not only has Taillon rediscovered his former self, but (although in a tiny sample, after having started the season on the injured list himself) he’s quite possibly having the best season of his career. He’s pitching to a lot of contact, and is quite a bit below league average in strikeouts, but spare one uneven start (his most recent against the Cardinals), Taillon has had a remarkable control-driven season. 

While we’re on the topic of consistent, solid pitching, Bryse Wilson put in another solid start in his most recent appearance against the Red Sox. Over 5.1 innings, he gave up six hits and a walk but limited Boston to only two runs. Time and time again, the decision to slide Wilson from the pen to the rotation looks like a bit of a happy accident. While the peripherals surrounding Wilson aren’t the most bullish on him, hovering around a 2.86 ERA is a good way to win games.

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Shota Imanaga: The numbers speak for themselves, but Imanaga is worth hearing out on an even broader basis. The last time a rookie won a Cy Young Award was in 1981, when Fernando Valenzuela went 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA. The way pitching is looked at and the award-worthy numbers that are valued are vastly different than they were 40 years ago, but still, Imanaga is exceeding literally all of them, including Valenzuela’s. An absolute marvel.

Nico Hoerner: After being drafted by the Cubs in the first round in 2018, Nico Hoerner has been an impressive contributor. Rocketing his way through the minors, Hoerner made his debut in September 2019, just over a year after being drafted. In the time since he’s made it to the bigs, he has yet to put up any black ink in the offensive categories, but he did take home last year’s Gold Glove at second while still being a dynamic threat at the plate. 

Enoli Paredes: In a four-game series, it’s increasingly important to look down the depth charts at the players who are likely to contribute as things stretch on. The 28-year-old former Astro Enoli Paredes signed a minor-league deal with the Brewers in the offseason, and has since been dominant in Nashville. Over 20 2/3 innings, he’s put up a 1.31 ERA. There have been some control issues, and an 11% walk rate would be something to worry about if he wasn’t also striking out an astounding 41.5% of batters he’s faced. Another prodigy salvaged from the scrap heap? Time will tell, but the numbers are promising.

Oliver Dunn: With what Joey Ortiz has been putting up so far this season, it was a curious (and semi-controversial) decision to option Joey Wiemer to Triple-A and recall Oliver Dunn, who’s back with the Brewers after a forgettable start and his own sojourn in Nashville. Against minor leaguers, Dunn has put up an undeniably impressive .310/.394/.517 slash, earning the 26-year-old another shot. It will be interesting to see if Dunn can capitalize on the faith the front office is putting in him, or flounder against MLB pitching.

PREDICTIONS
It’s hard to imagine the Brewers not showing up with an especially large chip on their shoulder and much to prove against their former manager. I’m certainly not going to predict a sweep by the Brewers, with the likes of Imanaga as one of their opponents, but the momentum, home turf and aforementioned magnification of an already fiery rivalry make me believe the Brewers can win this series, taking three of four.