What, Exactly, Is Jacob Misiorowski’s Ceiling?

Jacob Misiorowski was supposed to toe the slab on June 18 against the Chicago Cubs, before the game was postponed due to rain. Personally, I’ve never heard of a few drops of water getting in the way of America’s national pastime but alas, his next outing was pushed until June 20, when he’d face the Twins. Given how he performed, I assume the Cubs breathed a sigh of relief that the clouds had moved in their favor.

In a scintillating follow-up to his debut, Misiorowski gave up just one hit, one walk, and two earned runs, all of which came in the seventh inning—at which point Misiorowski was promptly pulled. On 86 pitches, he threw 60 strikes and generated nine whiffs, five of which came against his slider. You know, the slider that averages 94 mph and really behaves more like a cutter, but is labeled a slider, because why the heck not?

He threw six perfect innings against an offense that has averaged a .731 OPS over the past 30 days, the third-highest in MLB. The Cubs would have been quite the test, but when presented with a different challenge and less time to prepare specifically for them, he stepped up in an even bigger way. So this all invites the question: What comes next for the rookie? Two games still isn’t a ton of data, but it has given us a closer look at what he can do besides throwing the ball super duper hard—and how he attacks hitters at the highest level of competition. 

His four-seam fastball is one of the best in baseball. It has an average velocity of 99.7 mph, with 16 inches of induced vertical break. FanGraphs has given it a Stuff+ figure of 124, the highest of any fastball on the Brewers. It’s really the key to his success, and scouts bumped it from a 70 to an 80 grade heading into this year. With its velocity, rise, and Misiorowski’s ridiculous 7.7 feet of extension, it’s simply a tough pitch to catch up to, especially when located well.

His slider is similarly effective, having a whiff rate of 33.3%. It is the only pitch he has given up any hits on so far this year, but it has also been a tough pitch to hit. He used it to pick apart Carlos Correa to great effect, getting him to swing and miss three times.

His curveball grades similarly to his fastball, although we haven’t seen much of it just yet since he’s only thrown it 13 times thus far. A three-pitch arsenal is a little thin for a modern-day starter, especially since he’s more of a two-pitch guy anyway, but I’m sure as he continues to develop, he’ll work on getting some off-speed offerings and stuff going arm side. He has thrown a few changeups, but his usage of that pitch so far has been so selective as to be minimal.

In terms of what he can work on, command is undoubtedly the biggest thing. It has been an issue since he was drafted, and he’s never really come close to having a walk rate below 10%. It’s also a contributing factor to his first pitch strike rate of 54.1%, quite a bit lower than the average mark of 61.1%. He’s doing better when it comes to finding the strike zone overall, landing 50.9% of his pitches, but greater precision that allows him to get into more pitcher-friendly counts would make him even more dominant.

Then there’s his whiff rate. Despite his stuff, his whiff rate after two starts is just 25.9%, right about league average. Both his zone swing (70.6%) and zone contact (85.0%) rates are higher than average, which signals that he’s filling up the juicier parts of the zone a little too often. His hard-hit rate is better than league average, but his average exit velocity is worse, meaning that all his power does help a hitter get the ball moving the other way if they can connect with it.

With a 1.64 ERA after his first 11 innings, it may seem like the possibilities for Misiorowski are endless, but it will only take one start for all of that to be turned upside down. The potential is clearly there, but if he wants to have a longer career that allows him to tap into all of it, he’ll need to make a few adjustments.

Developing his arsenal is one tweak that the Brewers will likely focus on in the near future. Spencer Strider is an example of a starter who can be successful with just two pitches, but as we’ve seen from his rocky start to the year, the second his velocity or movement dips even slightly, it no longer plays. Misiorowski won’t be able to throw 100 mph forever; nor should he expect to. A season-ending injury is all but a sure thing these days, and for someone with his skillset, developing a game plan that is resilient to an unforeseen circumstance can help prevent him from becoming the next Noah Syndergaard.

I don’t doubt that the command will improve. It was steadily getting better through his minor-league career and Milwaukee has been pretty good about getting things under control. Abner Uribe had a walk rate of 15.7% in 2023, and it’s down to 10.4% this year. Freddy Peralta debuted with a 12.5% walk rate, and now consistently hovers around the 9% mark. 

At this point, it really seems like the sky's the limit for Misiorowski. He’s rightfully the talk of the town, and it will be a privilege to watch him develop into a potentially generational pitching talent with the Brewers. He’s already got all of the makings of a big-league ace and he’ll likely be leading this team’s rotation before you know it. With a few more steps in the right direction, he has the potential to be one of the greatest arm talents to ever stroll through town.