Key Storylines as Brewers Look Toward Postseason: Whom Should They Play?

The Brewers managed to clinch the NL Central last week, to cap off what has been a dominant season. Their run differential of +124 is the third-highest in MLB, behind only the Yankees (+147) and Dodgers (+133). That's despite Milwaukee not having nearly the same star power, and their biggest name, Christian Yelich, being out of the lineup since late July. Instead, the team's powerhouse offense has been led by a group of youngsters, one of whom is 20 years old in Jackson Chourio. They've exceeded the expectations of many, but does this team of Gen-Z young'uns have what it takes to make a deeper playoff run?

Potential Matchups
In terms of seeding, it seems like the Brewers will probably come in third place once again. The Dodgers are four games up and have a remaining schedule of mild difficulty, finishing off with three games against the Rockies and three games against the Padres. The Phillies are three games up on the Crew, with an arguably easier schedule than the Dodgers', ending their regular season with a series against the Cubs and one against the Nationals. This means the Brewers will likely end up facing the sixth-seeded Wild Card team, a hard spot to predict at this time. 

The Diamondbacks and Mets have identical records at 87-69, and the Braves are just two games behind them. The Brewers have played well against both NL East teams this year, going 3-0 against the Mets and 4-2 against the Braves. The Mets might still be the better matchup for Milwaukee, given the uncertainty around the return of Francisco Lindor, but Atlanta’s own injury problems with Reynaldo López and Austin Riley may make them beatable, too. 

Either way, the Diamondbacks are the team to avoid--not that the Brewers have that power, per se. Their team OPS of .779 is the highest in MLB, and their second-half OPS of .850 is a step above the second-place Dodgers (.790 OPS). Their pitching is some of the worst in MLB, with a combined 4.63 ERA, but Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly could be a formidable 1-2 punch. Additionally, let's not forget Brandon Pfaadt’s incredible efforts in the 2023 postseason. In their most recent series this past weekend, the Brewers narrowly avoided a four-game Snakes sweep with some eighth-inning heroics in the final game from Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers.

Roster Battles
The greatest positional depth can be found in the outfield. In Yelich’s absence, Chourio and Garrett Mitchell have risen to the occasion, as both players have an OPS north of .840 since Ye;ich's last game on Jul. 23. Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins have struggled mightily at the plate, with OPSes below .600 in that same span, but they’ve been stellar defensively, providing 14 and 8 Defensive Runs Saved, respectively. Frelick, Perkins and Mitchell figure to be mixed and matched, with Chourio the constant in the lineup come the playoffs.

The infield is more or less settled, with the slight exception of first base. Hoskins holds the top spot on the depth chart for the position, but Bauers has been getting a decent number of reps. He’s played a total of 538 innings at first base, compared to Hoskins’s 739, and has been slightly better defensively, although neither will be winning Fielding Bible awards anytime soon. Picking between Bauers and Hoskins is sort of like picking between the snot and vomit-flavored jelly beans at the bottom of the bag your friends gave you: neither option is ideal. One factor leaning in the favor of Hoskins is his more favorable numbers against righties. His .710 OPS is a marked improvement over the .641 put up by Bauers this season, and Hoskins also has some postseason bona fides.

On the mound, it seems like Colin Rea may already be earmarked for the bullpen. After being mauled by the Giants earlier in the month, he came out of the bullpen to pitch 2 ⅔ scoreless innings against the Phillies and picked up the first save of his career. He made an unimpressive four-inning start against Arizona that saw him concede three earned runs, foreshadowing issues if he were to take the ball in key playoff games. Tobias Myers and Freddy Peralta seem to be the frontrunners for the top two rotation spots. Myers has pitched to a 2.96 ERA over nine starts since the start of August, and Peralta has posted a 3.19 ERA over the same span. Aaron Civale has also been good since landing in Milwaukee, achieving a 3.84 ERA over 68 innings with the squad.

Aside from the ever-impressive Devin Williams, expect Trevor Megill and Jared Koenig to play key roles at the back of the bullpen. With Bryan Hudson still in Triple-A even after someone was called up to replace Enoli Paredes, Koenig’s position as one of the few effective lefties on the team will be an imperative one.

Will this finally be the year the Brewers make it out of the first round of postseason play? It’s always hard to predict the outcome of baseball games, especially series played in October, but after nearly 160 games of quality Brew Crew ball, there’s an exciting story heading into the playoffs.