Young, Hyped-Up Pirates Come to Milwaukee Ready to Be Knocked Down a Peg

As the sun set over Milwaukee on Saturday evening, the Brewers were celebrating another win over the St. Louis Cardinals and a +36 run differential while sitting atop the NL Central. One division rival deserves another, and as the Cards lick their wounds and take their leaves, the Pirates move in. Can the Crew build on their division lead, or does the promising Pittsburgh squad have what it takes to put a dent in Milwaukee’s momentum? Let’s take a look.

PITCHING MATCHUPS
Monday, May 13th
Mitch Keller (3-3 4.41 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (3-0. 3.29 ERA)

The luster of a potential ace seems to have worn from Mitch Keller’s reputation over the past few years, who in his approaching 600 career innings has only amassed exactly 4.0 career WAR. Still, the righty can muster instances of formidability (if not brilliance), and in his last start, he did just that. It wasn’t a shutout, but he gave up just one run and five hits while pitching a complete game against the Angels last Monday. In his first outing in a week, Keller will hope to duplicate that measure of mastery against the Brewers.

Contrasting his counterpart, Rea’s last start against Kansas City wasn’t illustrious. After surrendering four runs on seven hits, Rea was pulled before he could get through the fifth inning. The peripherals haven’t liked the well-traveled hurler all year, but he’d pitched with fantastic success despite them. Whether getting picked apart by the pesky Royals was the outlier or whether the aforementioned success was a mirage has yet to be determined, but Brewers fans hope the Pirates will provide clarity--in Rea’s favor.

Tuesday, May 14th
Quinn Priester (0-3 3.86) vs. Joe Ross (1-4 4.75 ERA)

If there’s one pitcher whose stat line doesn’t tell the full story, it’s Priester. His 0-3 doesn’t look like a shining record, but it becomes much more forgivable when you take into account one fact: he has had exactly zero runs in support during any of his starts to date. Still, the future is uncertain for Priester, who (at 23) still looks very much like an incomplete product. With the playoffs being an unlikely outcome for Pittsburgh this year, Priester will be given a reasonably long leash in the rotation to perfect his tantalizing sinker and sharpen the rest of his repertoire, all of which sees a steep decline in quality after his main pitch.

It was another rough start for Ross last time out; he's in the star-crossed portion of the young season. The xERA for Ross sits at a reasonable 4.15, more than half a point lower than his actual one on a team full of xERA beaters. Still, the 19:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio he’s achieved over the last 26 innings indicates more of a literal dip in quality than just poor luck. Regardless, the next few starts for Ross should prove crucial in determining his viability as a starter.

Wednesday, May 15th
Martín Pérez (1-2 3.60 ERA) vs. Robert Gasser (1-0 0.00 ERA)

Consistent back-of-the-rotation innings eaters rarely get fanfare, but Pérez has been a pretty valuable version of that guy since 2012. Now in his 12th year in the majors, the longtime Rangers arm finds himself a veteran presence in a boisterous young rotation, doing what he does best: quietly, reliably eating innings on a bargain salary. He’s limiting baserunners well by keeping walks to a minimum, but he’s also in the bottom 10% of the league in giving up extra-base hits. If the Brewers can pick their spots, approach with discipline and get Pérez to throw a lot of pitches, they can be his undoing.

The last Brewers pitcher with a debut as stellar as Robert Gasser’s was Brandon Woodruff. Missed as he may be, the absence of that two-time All-Star feels a bit more palatable when you see a promising young arm come up and dominate a division rival. Gasser did just that, fanning four and walking none over the course of six dominant innings in his big-league debut against the Cardinals. One division-widening start deserves another, and Gasser will hope to prove himself once more this coming Wednesday.

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Andrew McCutchen: It’s been a long time since McCutchen has been the MVP-caliber player who became a number-retirement candidate for the Pirates, but his legacy and likability have made him worth keeping around despite the diminishing play. It’s near the middle of May and Cutch hasn’t been able to put it together. With a -0.2 WAR and a .175 average, it’s hard to see an upstart team like the Bucs continuing to make room for an aging vet. Still, in giving respect where it’s due, we should appreciate bearing witness to the last vestige of an era where names like Votto, Braun and McCutchen held marquee esteem in the baseball world.

Paul Skenes: Even if he doesn’t record an inning during this series, the hype around Skenes has electrified the baseball world and should resonate even in stasis. The former first overall pick has all the makings of a star, from sitting 100 on the mound to the celebrity girlfriend. It’s hype in a pitcher the baseball world hasn’t seen since Stephen Strasburg fanned 14 Buccos in his debut, and he and Livvy Dunne have tandem star power akin to that of Justin Verlander and Kate Upton. Feel however you want about the celebrity ephemera, but it does undeniably imbue the game with something unique and magnetic.

Rhys Hoskins: It’s taken a bit to get going, but it seems like the imposing bat that made Hoskins the hot commodity he was is starting to come out of hibernation. Since the beginning of May, his slash line has ascended from .207/.303/.448 to .230/.333/.460. The numbers themselves aren’t likely to turn heads, but if the trajectory maintains, it gives the Brewers fans yet another thing to look forward to.

Jared Koenig: The 1,000th player in franchise history has carved out quite a dynamic beginning of the season so far. Signed on a free-agent minor-league contract after being released by the Padres last offseason, Koenig originally figured to be a short relief pitcher to help triage and mop up games. If his actual skillset is what we've seen so far, then Koenig is a valuable and malleable arm, a surefire stopper who can come into any game and shut down the opposition. With an astounding xwOBA of .248, Koenig is presently in the top 5% in the entire league. If he can keep this up, Koenig figures to be a pivotal part of the Brewers playoff run. 

PREDICTIONS
By hook or by crook, the Brewers seem to be able to pick apart these incomplete-feeling teams in relatively convincing fashion. It’s not often that I bet on any team to sweep, and I won’t here, but I feel like the Brewers can walk away with two easy wins.