Great discussion, Toby... I feel like we're in a virtual pre-draft scouting meeting. Which one of us is 'sposed to throw the chair? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif RE: The Cape I guess I'd want more inspiration than Greene or Charles Thomas (!) when it comes to pimping a player. Like I said, I just looked at the oldest archived stats and found some future big leaguers. My point is just that hitters struggle in the Cape Cod League. If he just didn't hit with a wood bat, that's worrisome. 50 AB isn't a whole lot, but if he's supposed to be destroying the ball, he should be destroying the ball. But he didn't hit much below the league average and it was a very small sample. It takes even good hitters some time to get acclimated to wood bats. And the comment about hitting very well against NCAA pitching doesn't really hold a lot of water - lots of guys have hit well against NCAA pitching (even guys at top programs) and not done jack in the minors, much less the majors. Why? I think it has a lot to do with the metal bats, which brings me back to my worry about him not making good contact with the wood. That's true, but I just don't think Braun fits that profile. He's a high-average, good-contact guy... he hits the ball on the sweet spot consistently and hits a lot of line drives. There's no reason to expect that he'll be unable to do the same with wood... it's guys that don't make solid contact that get helped the most by metal, IMO. The difference between what you're saying and what I'm seeing is that the circle is part of the swing - there's no gap between it and the swing itself. Successful hitters in the bigs with lots of movement in their swings stop the movement before their swing - Braun doesn't. In essence, his swing turns into a figure eight because the circle is in reaction to the pitch, not a timing thing. Pre-swing motion doesn't adjust to the pitch being thrown - his wrist motion seems to be doing that. I think that's a pretty huge swing problem, that can be made up for with a metal bat and quick hands. Could he be successful with it? Maybe. Would I want to take that chance with the 5th pick? Nope. I'd take him sometime after 10. We don't really disagree about this, I don't think... I had just assumed (wrongly, in retrospect) that the "hitch" scouts were talking about was a hole in his swing, not the timing mechanism. He might indeed have to cut down on that, but I don't think that's a big deal. He has been able to adjust to pitchers that change speeds very well in college, and his strong wrists and great bat speed make me think that his success isn't just a product of titanium. I'll give you the bat speed part, but I don't want any part of a college hitter whose swing you're going to have to rework. If he was a HS player, sure. If Rogers had been a college pitcher with his old HS mechanics, would you have taken him where the Brewers took him? I wouldn't have taken him in either case. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif You're right, though... all things being equal, I'd prefer someone with excellent mechanics and results (like Mr. Go®d(on)). I just think the change(s) that Braun will need to make are relatively minor, if he needs to make them at all. I remain unconvinced that NCAA pitchers have been unable to exploit his "hitch" but professional pitchers will. It would be one thing if he had been striking out a lot and getting beat by top pitchers, but that isn't the case. Exactly - he's a strong gap hitter with a metal bat. I don't know how he's going to turn out once he switches to wood, but he's certainly not going to be hitting the ball any harder right away. Going back to your Khalil Greene reference, I'd be fine with him if he were a SS, but he's not. He may not even be a third baseman. If he can't play third, then he loses a lot of value (see below). I think the best comparisons I can come up with are Jeff Kent and David Wright, although obviously those are great players... strong forearms and wrists, very quick bat, solid contact and lots of line drives. If he has to move to left field, this would be an even worse pick. At least Zimmerman/Tulowitski/Gordon can all play in the infield without a doubt. I agree, but I don't buy the "he can't play third" line. Like I said, I feel that he compares favorably to Gordon... he might be a little worse, but not a whole lot. Zimmerman looks like a shortstop playing third, and is obviously in a different league defensively. Braun is a better hitter, though. And at least Maybin is actually an outfielder. Players with no real position bother me. Looking at the Brewers' defense lately, I'd rather they not continue the trend of trying to find new positions for guys later on. It has already backfired on Hart and Nelson. Perhaps, but I have more faith in his defensive ability. He played shortstop at Miami for two years... Corey Hart or Brad Nelson he's not. One of those three guys will be there when the Brewers pick, so this won't even be an issue, or at least it shouldn't be. If the first four selections are Upton, Gordon, Tulo, and Zimmerman, the Brewers will have their choice of Braun, Maybin, and Romero. I don't think they'll take Romero, so it's down to Braun vs. Maybin. I'd prefer Braun. Braun's a first round talent, but he's not a #5 talent, IMO. You can't have pretty big questions about a swing hitch and potential defensive position with a college guy with the 5th pick in the draft. If the Brewers do pick him, I'll wish him luck, but I honestly think it won't work out very well for them. Jack Z. is bound to slip up sometime, and this may be it. We'll just have to wait and see... I'll bet you a cheese sandwich that Braun (barring injury) is in the big leagues by the end of the 2007 season. Deal? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ~Bill