In my original "who I would take post" I said I liked Corey Ray, though I'm not enamored with the pick because I wanted pitching, but I always want pitching. However, I'm not poo pooing the pick, there's quite a bit to like about Ray as a baseball player. He's not going to steal 40 bases and if he makes MLB the line-up will be completely dissimilar to what Braun had. I really wish posters would quit comparing prospects to the best players in the game, past and present, it's happening all over the message board these days. I've said many times that I don't deal in best case scenarios for players, I'm going to project a middle ground for any particular player until they prove to be elite, like a Gallardo or Braun. I remember similar arguments being made about Eric Farris... he was going to steal 40 bases because he was so smart and Milwaukee didn't have a long term 2B. I made the same arguments about him as I'm making now, it's way too early to predict an absolute best case before a player is even in AA. As to Villar, he's the SS version of Carlos Gomez, I find his continual mental mistakes infuriating, I don't think Ray is that kind of player and while I get what you are saying, I would have looked for a player with a similar all around skill set to make the argument with. I understand Villar is currently leading the league, but I don't find Ray and Villar similar from a make up perspective at all. Instead of wild speculation the conversation should be; how many players in the modern game are stealing 40 bases per year and how does Ray's skill set compare? The answer to that question was there were 3 last year. Is Corey Ray in the same class as Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton? I could see a Charlie Blackmon argument, but then the next 2 questions become what kind of offensive team will he be playing for and how often will he be on base? I don't think any of us realistically know the answers to either right now. My gut feeling is that if Ray works out to be about average in MLB he'll steal 20-30 bases a year, probably eclipsing 30 in his peak seasons, but he doesn't strike me as special in any particular way other than his all around athleticism. I use "special" somewhat generously because he's not on the same level athletically as Brewer prospect Monte Harrison. Nor do I think he's a sure thing to be an every day MLB player, I always worry if players are going to hit enough. Or the conversation could be whatever the other posters here -- many of whom just may be even as smart as you are -- decide they want to talk about. As for me, I like the approach you describe of looking for a middle-ground projection. But (a) when you say "Ray won't steal 40 bases" that sounds to me like you're denying the possibility, not the likelihood, and you don't know enough to deny the possibility; (b) basing your analysis of Ray's potential for steals on last year seems to me shortsighted, because historically MLB strategic norms about steals have changed rapidly; and © I think you too easily dismissed the poster's reference to Villar, who --whatever else you think of him -- seems like an ordinary player who will steal 40, which makes a tough data point for your argument.