gregmag

Chio, different people obviously have different views on this. I like older (i.e., college) pitchers because pitchers younger than about age 24 have a much higher incidence of injury. In general, though, younger players have more time to develop, so I like multitalented HS hitters, especially SS-2B-C-CF guys, because they have room to lose defensive value and still help you. I don't much care about getting immediate help, because young players are hard to predict that way, but I would say that a pitching-damaged team like the Brewers at least has a reason to think about not taking a far-off pitcher with their first pick. What's your view? Greg.

MLB lists Micah Wright, our 6th-rounder, at 6'4" and 0 lbs. I don't generally infer too much from body types, but that's a little disturbing. Wright turns 23 later this year, which I actually like a lot in a pitcher, not knowing anything else about him. Another HS RHP in the 8th, Charles Hill, which I don't mind so much, because it's the 8th round, so fine, roll the dice. In the 7th we took Andrew Bouchie from Oral Roberts, which is cool because (a) I like having an advanced catcher to throw into the mix with Salome and Palmisano, and (b) you can never have too many fundamentalist catchers. Greg.

Kat, of course you're right about Jack Z. and HS arms, but this seemed like a draft where HS arms wouldn't be quite so tempting, so yeah, I had hope. Also, I respect Jack and understand that he knows a whole lot more about this than I do, but so far experience has not been kind to his worldview. Is it too much to ask that maybe he learn something from that experience, at least something about the value of diversifying your risks? As for the old guys we've drafted (says the soon-to-be 39 year-old), I hope you're right. If they're good enough to move more quickly than we've seen recent Brewer prospects move, and if the organization in fact moves them quickly, then they're useful prospects -- as long as Gillespie isn't limited to 1B, which one scouting report I read somewhere said he might be. Greg.

. . . and in the fifth round, we get Cole Gillespie mark II: Chris Errecart, another corner type with a decent but not great bat who's less than a year younger than Prince Fielder. (Gillespie is actually within a month of Fielder, and probably has no greater defensive versatility down the road, but he does have a better-regarded bat than Errecart). Honestly, what do you do with guys like this? Start them in Helena and hope they see the majors at 25? At which point they'll be what -- backup corner guys? I mean, I understand Corey Hart is overqualified for his present job, but that doesn't mean you have to plan ahead to ensure sufficient mediocrity in the future. I know I'm getting snippy here, but not one of these picks makes any sense to me. HS RH pitchers, old college corner hitters, and Josh Murray v. 2.0? Yuck. I look forward to being educated by people who have a better sense of how these players can help. Greg.

gebc, your predictions are utterly weird, and I actually mean that in a complementary way. Baseball America's draft blog . . . well, sucks. At least if you're a Brewers fan. Their one feature item about the Crew was about how we got a sleeper in the second round by drafting Tom Hickman, who in fact was taken by the Marlins three picks after we took Brewer. In contrast to their inability to distinguish between low-revenue teams, the bloggers slobber all over every Red Sox and Yankees pick with deeply researched reverence. I expect better than that from BA. Greg.

Evan Anundsen, another HS righty, in the 4th. Be still my heart. Greg.

Gillespie turns 22 in June. He's going to have to move through the system fast to have any kind of career at all. Jeffress -- somebody said how can you give up on him before he even signs? I'm not giving up on him, but I think he's a terrible pick. Bad enough that he's a HS righty, but a small one who throws 100 and is still figuring out his breaking ball? Oh, no; he'll never get hurt. The only good news is that he's almost 19, so at least he's on the older end of the HS draftee pool. But really, I can't stand wasting our premium picks on guys who have a very limited chance of ever helping the Brewers. As for Brewer, SoCal's info is very discouraging, but I don't mind rolling the dice on a raw but high-ceiling HS hitter. As Colby said, I'd feel better about it if the first round pick made more sense. Between the losing streak and these draft choices, this past week has to go down as about the most disappointing in recent Brewers history. Here's hoping we get more out of the lower rounds. Greg.

Thank you, Colby! Because, surprise, I don't want to see the Brewers draft a prep pitcher, and your prediction is the kiss of death. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Seriously, great annotations on the mock picks; thanks for everything so far and, in advance, for everything coming. Greg.

Good eye, DHonks. That's pretty remarkable for a guy Brantley's age. He hasn't done anything else especially well this year (unless he's been a great fielder; I wouldn't know), but he has loads of time to develop something -- anything. Another double for TGJ, but Krynzel keeps steady at two lengths behind with a couple of steals. We really have some outfielders at AAA -- and, I continue to believe, some pitchers. Greg.

Have our affiliates ever won eleven straight games collectively without a loss? Beccause I'm starting to think some egalitarian deity sapped all the win mojo from Milwaukee and sent it down the system. Sarfate is probably frustrated seeing the rest of his rotation called up ahead of him, but based on how a guy with AAA command like Eveland got his head handed to him, Dennis' walks seem to be a good reason to keep him where he is. Does anybody have thoughts on the likelihood of his taming that part of his game? Because the rest of it looks pretty darn good. No sooner do we dis Steve Moss in another thread than he's on base four times. Tantalizing, talented, frustrating prospect: Dave Krynzel v. 2.0. Greg. Greg.

Yeah, as a routine Rogers doubter, let me just send a hearty "Holy crap" his way. It don't get much better than his line through 6. Just a few more starts like this over the course of the year and he'll have passed "can he do it?" and moved on to "can he do it consistently?," which is no small step. Greg.

Woo-hoo Parra! Man, would it be beautiful to get him back on track for the majors. Also a great night for Gwynn so far with the two doubles. As a Krynzel backer in the eternal Tony vs. Dave argument, I can only say: prove me wrong! BTW, does anyone know what happened to Dave? Greg.

Awesome. Thank you. It really does sound like a tough call, assuming the Brewers are thinking that way. That's where the scouts earn their paychecks, I guess. This seems like a very good direction for the Brewers to take in the first round, based on what we know. Greg.

Colby, I'm trying to get a handle on Conger and Sapp, as HS catching seems to be a likely way for the Brewers to go in this year's first round. I see that you have Conger rated ahead of Sapp, but I can't find much in earlier threads that compares the two. Would you, and anyone else with an opinion, mind sharing your thoughts on how they compare? Also, does either of them present an especially tough signability issue (i.e., Boras)? Thanks in advance. Greg.

The Philadelphia Inquirer reported this morning that Lieberthal will not be back today or tomorrow; he's on minor league rehab. Rowand will be back tonight, which will push Rollins back to leadoff with Rowand presumably batting seventh. Hamels is also feeling better, but that isn't our problem. Rowand over Victorino doesn't really improve their lineup, but Victorino gives their bench a pulse. Something to remember is that the Phillies didn't have an off day before this series, and a couple of days ago they played 16 innings against the Mets. They should be a little fatigued by now, and Floyd on three days' rest isn't exactly the world's greatest gamble. Bush has something to prove after his start against the Reds. So there are reasons to be optimistic. Greg.

Not really. He gives us a better chance than Ben did, but that's still not saying much. I don't see how someone who has an 8.22 ERA, and a WHIP of 2.02 is really doing much to help us win games. I mean, he doesn't eat up innings(longest outing has been 5.2 IP), he has a decent K/BB ratio, at best(17/9). He does have good stuff, he just isn't good enough yet. Maybe he is tipping his pitches or something. Or maybe he's adjusting to having to step into the middle of a pennant race as a 22 year-old starting pitcher with only a month of AAA under his belt. I think it's a little unfair to judge the guy's value going forward based on what he's done for Milwaukee so far. That said, you're right that he has been bad as a starter, and if he continues to be bad I think it will be fair to say the Brewers rushed him. I'm going to start a thread comparing him to Gavin Floyd. Greg.

First of all, the JS Online headline right now reads "Brewers 6, Reds 5." Mock them before they notice the mistake. I was at the game tonight, and, well, holy crap. I am way too old for this. I'm not sure I have much to add that you don't already know if you saw the game on TV. I was on the third base side, which gave me a great view of Koskie's double play on the line drive. It was a great play combined with great luck, because if the ball isn't right there he doesn't make it. Turnbow was throwing gas, but he was throwing it straight, and you don't do that with the middle of the Phillies' order. What else . . . Carlos Lee looked like a total fool when he did his belly flop job; he was the only guy in the park who didn't know that ball was falling in. When Weeks missed getting Victorino on that shovel play in the tenth, there was a nice moment when Prince slapped him on the butt. Rickie obviously cares about his defense, and Prince's role as supportive little brother is just one more sign of astonishing maturity in a guy his age. Both Prince and Rickie looked absolutely locked in at the plate. Rickie did hit into one of those confounding double plays, but he at least got deep into the count and hit the ball sharply. The vets -- IIRC it was Miller and Clark, I've misplaced my scorecard -- were the ones who looked really bad, letting Lidle off the hook by hitting weak grounders on first pitches. Capuano did not have his best stuff, but his command was superb; I wasn't tracking this in the first two innings, but I don't recall his going 2-0 or 3-1 once during the game. He has turned into a real pitcher, a great combination of physical ability and sky-high baseball I.Q. The bottom of the tenth was some of the best baseball drama I've ever seen in person. You just knew Utley was going to get his shot, and make the most of it, because he was hitless on his own bobblehead night up to that point -- and then the Phillies' thin bench finally did them in when the game came down to Roberson, whose replacement of Burrell probably no one in the stands remembered until they saw him step to the plate. The Brewers blew this game in at least two big ways -- the early double plays, the D-Bow meltdown -- and still managed to beat a good team with something to play for in its own ballpark. It was great to watch. But part of me thinks both teams will be a little relieved if at least one of these next two games is a blowout, because this nail biter stuff is hard to handle in massive doses. I'm back there tomorrow and Sunday, so I'll ramble on a bit more after those games. Greg.

The most recent research shows the injury rate of HS and college pitchers are the same, and thats only because some archaic teams still don't properly care for their HS pitchers. I disagree. I actually reported an exchange about this with Sickels last year. IIRC, he did a study (presumably the one to which you refer) that showed injury rates for HS and college pitching draftees were similar over the first few years after drafting. But the problem with that analysis is that, just about three years out, college pitchers are leaving the peak injury years, while HS pitchers are still in them. So the three-year study unwittingly painted the rosiest possible picture of HS pitching draftees' injury risk relative to college draftees. I also question the qualitative logic of your point. Show me the MLB organization that has developed a surefire strategy, or even a repeatable good strategy, for avoiding injuries to pitchers in their late teens and early 20s. I'm no doctor, but my general understanding is that pitchers in that age range get hurt because their bodies are still developing in unpredictable ways, which renders just about any pitching delivery highly risky. You're right to the extent that controlling workload at that age presumably helps a lot, and some colleges don't do that. But (a) plenty of high schools have already hurt their pitchers, and (b) I don't think it's rational to bet that a MLB organization will be categorically less likely than a college to mess up a pitcher, given the ticking development clock imposed by the CBA. Greg.

I think molitorfan was subtly making the point -- or at least the stats he cited support the point -- that Rogers still has a much higher ceiling than the college guys chosen behind him. I agree, and that's certainly something to consider. Patrick's mention of the "home run" vs. "safe pick" draft philosophy comes into play here; clearly a pick like Rogers reflects a carefully considered choice of ceiling over safety. My aversion to HS pitchers has a lot to do with the fact that they face not one but two large obstacles on the path toward hitting their ceilings. First, there's the developmental unpredictability that afflicts all prospects, but is probably worse for pitchers than for hitters and is necessarily worse for rawer/younger prospects than for more polished/older prospects. Second, there's the injury nexus. I get the appeal of ceiling, but I just think the odds are too long to make a gamble like Rogers at all sensible. But -- if any one of Rogers, Gallardo, or Inman works out, then my position on this issue will be exposed as unduly strident if not utterly wrong. Greg.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: until and unless a HS pitcher drafted by the Brewers actually helps the Brewers win games, the burden of persuasion in this discussion rests on the people who want to spend high picks on HS pitchers -- not on the skeptics. Will Inman and Yo Gallardo are wonderful prospects, but you can't invoke their names in this argument before they make it out of A ball. Mike Jones was a terrific prospect in A ball. So was Nick Neugebauer. As of right now, if the evidence you want to evaluate is the experience of the Brewers' organization in drafting HS pitchers, David's point is absolutely, 100% right. I'm not saying that's the only relevant evidence -- we've hashed this issue out a lot before, and Patrick has made me think about it in a little bit more nuanced way. But you can't pretend that Inman's and Gallardo's success in A ball, while they're still smack dab in the middle of the injury nexus, goes one inch toward refuting the argument against drafting HS pitchers. I'll be thrilled to eat crow if they make it. We also should acknowledge that, as of right now, the Mark Rogers pick looks like an unmitigated disaster of the type that small market teams simply can't afford. Of course Mark still has time to turn it around. But the Brewers need pitching ASAP. While Mark tries to figure out the FSL, Jeremy Sowers is dominating AAA; Thomas Diamond and Glen Perkins are pitching wonderfully at AA; David Purcey is holding his own at AAA. Greg.

Krynzel in one of his usual funks where in a matter of 3 or 4 days, his average drops 50 points. Hopefully he gets it going again soon. At this time last year was when his slide began...went from hitting .300+ to having a poor year. This is exactly right. Obviously the intensity of his skid is exaggerated by his limited action this year, but of course you have to say the same thing about his good start. This is a very important moment for Krynzel -- can he come back strong? The key, I think, is for him to start doing one thing per game that helps. He has a broad skill set, and that's how guys with broad skill sets succeed. A walk here, a steal there, a great catch next time, until he's all the way back on his game. That's what he has to do if he's going to get anywhere. Greg.

So I'm thinking our record just went some considerable distance toward catching up with our pythagorean record in this series? We just took the hottest team in baseball and swept them, behind what was supposed to be the back of our rotation. Not bad. Greg.

Or maybe not. Score a great inning for Lehr. Greg.

I'm worried "the Hebrew Hammer" may be inappropriate, which is too bad, because it really is catchy. It would be easier if he was ultra-Orthodox, because then we could call him "the Hasidic Hammer" or "the Satmar Slugger" or something. Years ago one of the specialist stathead mags -- Elysian Fields, maybe -- did a cover story on Jewish ballplayers. I was kind of surprised at how few there had been (and admittedly even more surprised that Rod Carew was one of them). Greg.

Dave Welch has completely eluded my (admittedly fuzzy) radar until now, but I see that he pitched well last year and has done well in his first couple of starts this year. Do people see him as a nonprospect for some reason? He's 22 in A-ball, but that's fine with me for a pitcher; it just means he's more likely to arrive in Milwaukee in one piece. O minor league gurus: What does he throw? Do you like him? Greg.