MJLiverock

I wouldn't call a .310 OBP hitting well. During this "hot streak" Ortiz is ranked 16th among SS with regular playing time, and basically at replacement level offensively. His D is ranked 9th and overall using WAR he is 16th in your sample dates. I'm not going to get too excited about a player's hot streak being replacement level. They need to find a bat somewhere but the corners seem more likely for availability and likelihood of being DH as well. I just don't see Ortiz as any great shakes and fear once his hot streak ends his O will completely offset his D and be right back at replacement level overall.

I'm skeptical until they can win a play off series or 2, too many times we've seen the team fail in the playoffs. I am skeptical of the average offense being able to get it done vs. playoff teams when the rotations are shortened and pressure is on. Looking at the Brewers compared to other playoff teams they have a similar number of guys with OPS or Rc+ above average but the Brewers guys are barely above average while others have 5+ guys with better offense than the Brewers best guys and the black hole of offense at SS isn't enough, even with good D Ortiz is still at replacement level for WAR because his O is so bad.

Notice the Brewers were pretty much the worst on this metric in comparison to the playoff teams of a year ago. Even though the r/g outperformed the regression line vs. ISO, the playoff teams pretty much all did but at a higher r/g rate. I don't feel the excitement or see the upside of some earlier posts here -- sure it makes sense to try to maximize the skills of the players but if those skills are limited to begin with - -i.e. no power and low runs per game it doesn't translate to a lot wins if elite pitching isn't coming alongside it to limit runs given up. There is no trophy for best r/g vs. ISO, all that matters is scoring runs and this article seems to point out how difficult the Brewers had it last year and going forward. Now that pitching is weakened it is hard to see the excitement of a marginally better offense from what wasn't all that great a year ago.

I have been a fan for a long time, remember watching the Brewers clinch the AL in Baltimore in '82 and running home from school to see how the afternoon WS games played out. Is that long enough for you? I also remember the countless times the next batch of prospects is going to get them over the hump, it is always next year. I choose reality - -I ask in what way does always giving up proven talent vs. paying them and getting back lottery tickets that if they hit just equal the talent you gave up provide evidence the team will be better? This is the genesis of the rearranging deck chairs, just like the Bucks of the Herb Kohl era. Nothing has raised the ceiling here and when Adames and Williams are let go they will again point to some down the road improvement only to have those players come of age as another set of Vets are let go- -how many times do we have to see this play out?

In what way does the future look better? How have they raised their ceiling from what was a top level pitching staff and mediocre offense leading to a fringe playoff team? If all goes well with the replacements I see nothing that makes the team any better than what they had and likely will get worse as they let more established vets go and roll the dice with prospects, eventually they will miss badly on the return and then the truly bad years kick in. My belief is we've seen the high water mark and nothing has raised the level.

Yep they had the best pitching of their entire history, managed to do well in a garbage division and bow out of the expanded playoffs with a whimper each time with well known offensive issues. This was the ceiling, they are trying to maybe strive to get close but my guess is they are a mid 80 win team for now, trending down but certainly not improving on where they were which is the whole point - -they just hope to be average or slightly above if all goes well and they hit on reclamation projects and young guys perform better earlier before they trade of established guys and rinse and repeat. Did Attansio not just spend money elsewhere vs. resigning his ace pitcher? Or did they trade the ace for what they hope can provide equal WAR at a lower cost. - - i.e. not improving. Arnold basically just said they aren't going to spend more and the new guys just made it so they can jettison Adames and Williams without paying them. Peralta is next. None of these moves raise the ceiling of the team, it is just hope of getting equal replacement value in the future so no forward upward progress occurs. They aren't going to get better without keeping some established guys and letting the young guys improve around them. The Cubs won't be terrible forever, STL won't either.

Sure it was inevitable that they wouldn't pay Burnes and would trade him. It's part of the discouraging spiral of being a Brewer fan. The owner has money to invest in other sporting ventures, just not the baseball team. The team under current ownership and baseball revenue rules isn't' going to be a serious contender and hearing Arnold's comments about spending and the actions of the team the past few years solidifies it. They built a great pitching staff and paired it with a mediocre offense with massive holes and were exposed by playoff teams after shooting for their bites at the apple as a bottom rung playoff team. Even this article touting Frelic and Tourang as bright spots (more sub 700 and maybe sub 600 OPS for Turang)? Now hoping to tread water and not really improving they will move forward. They gave up a pitcher who will likely be a 3-4 WAR guy going forward and acquired to players who will likely be 1-2 WAR guys, a slick fielding, sub 700 OPS SS and a reliever with possible command issues they can fix in the lab. They'll get rid of Adames now and removes his 3-4 WAR stats and Williams from the pen and get some prospects for down the road, the sum will be treading water in the next couple years, then the prospects from the Adames and Williams trade will arrive in time for Yelich to be gone, catching getting expensive and traded off, Peralta traded off and in the end the same overall mid level talent as a team with a few bright spots but too many holes to really be a serious WS contender. The team will say they are competing and the local media will tell us how great it is the strive for 84 wins and a wildcard shot in the expanded playoff format. In the end it is all just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. The next year or 2 will look like they'll sub in the 3-4 WAR from the 2 new guys give up 4-6 WAR in Williams and Adames and hope to get 2-3 WAR from Gasser and in the end stay Meh.

The strategy of trying to catch lightning in a bottle with players past their prime or attempting to be comeback player of the year is not a great way to build a serious contender. All the talk of bites and the apple mean nothing when the team refuses to improve a glaringly weak offense not matter how many times beat writers and some fans claim they are trying or the offense isn't bad. We all see it, complain about it, but in the end it doesn't seem to matter.

I watched an episode of Hawaii Five-0 off the DVR last night and immediately thought of this thread when I saw Carol Burnett (80) on the show and still acting well. My Grandma loved the Carol Burnett show when I was a kid so ended up watching it and thought it was funny even though I probably didn't get half the jokes. Also had the late great Harvey Korman, who was an awesome "villian" in Blazing Saddles.