Fear The Chorizo
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Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo
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Looks like he hasn't had too many hits since that 1st one. I'm already convinced that yelich has already outperformed what these 4 guys will do in their entire mlb careers, and the brewers still have yelich a couple more seasons. This trade was highway robbery
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Yeah, it's pretty apparent that his stuff is not that of a frontline starter...he could definitely become a mlb rotation piece and have a good career if he improves his command, but he needs to live on the corners to do so. Basically his upside is Zach Davies - while his downside is that he's a flash in the pan who flamed out in mlb before ever settling in as a starter at this level.
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What's pointless is essentially saying that one needs to be a Top 25 overall prospect at some point to validate their success. Sure, I'll go back to my fantasyland of not being over the moon impressed with a 23 yr old OPS-ing 0.950 in AAA considering he's repeating a level there, and not lamenting the loss of a corner OF who is OPS-ing mid 800's as a 23 yr old in that same level...that's nowhere near comparable to being the universal best prospect in all of baseball as an 18 yr old regardless of what level Franco is at. Since neither Harrison or Diaz are 20 yr olds tearing up AAA, and none have near the ceiling a guy like Franco has based on his talent level, the post I was responding to in my prior post was just a straw man argument I was calling out. 20 yr olds tearing up AAA are basically limited to generational talents like Trout, Harper, Machado, Vlad Jr., eventually Franco, etc. If age truly does matter, then you can't say a 20 yr old tearing up AAA is the same as Diaz and Harrison having good seasons at AAA. I never said that no prospect is truly a prospect unless they're rated in the top 25 - I'm glad Diaz and Harrison are having nice years for the Marlins' AAA affiliate, and hope they develop into everyday MLB players that are above replacement level. I'm also glad to have Hiura instead of Diaz in the organization playing 2B, and the reigning MVP of the National League as well playing a corner OF spot.color me crazy, I guess
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Exactly, age matters. If a 20 year old is tearing up AAA, every evaluator is going to be more impressed than if a 26 year old is doing it. Wander Franco isn't the best prospect in baseball because he's hitting .341/.410/.560 between A and A+. He's the best prospect in baseball because he's hitting that well (in addition to being an average at worst defender at the most premium defensive position) as an 18 year old. And putting too much stock in a small sample size of anyone's minor league performance at any level and age is foolhardy, particularly when there is a larger track record tied to a prospect or player that indicates they aren't likely to be as good as a two month stretch of at bats indicates. Guys like Diaz and Harrison have been pretty good this year, but both are coming off relatively poor 2018's, and neither were ever considered even top 25-ish prospects even during their best stretches. And it's not like either are 18 years old. Including wander franco in this conversation to make a point is pointless.
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Diaz has had a phenomenal season in AAA so far. He deserves it. He's well on his way to being a top 100 again. At least Brinson is floundering. You don't want the team you traded with to go 4 for 4. compare Diaz's 2019 in AAA to Saladino's, and you'll soon realize a TON of minor leaguers are having a phenomenal 2019. Including Diaz in that trade meant the Brewers were committed to Hiura at 2B instead of Diaz since their development timeframes were essentially identical - I'll make that same decision every single time. Until all these prospects actually become productive everyday MLB players, it's way too early to heap praise on them. In fact I'd say the odds are still stacked towards only one or possibly 2 of these four prospects developing into an MLB starter that has a career that reaches through the 1st 6 years of team control and into unrestricted free agency. That pretty much means the Brewers robbed the Marlins of one of the top 5 players in the entire world through his prime, who is making less than most veteran #5 starters.
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Regarding Yamamoto, check back with me after he makes his first all star game appearance, and then I'll tell you he'd only need another two AS appearances and a Cy Young to even consider feeling bad about losing him in a deal for prime Yelich.
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I think the only players I'd even consider something like this would be young position players primed to be MVP-caliber talents, who either are still pre-arbitration or are signed to very friendly contracts. Guys like Acuna Jr., Vlad Jr., Bellinger perhaps, maybe even Wander Franco of the Rays. Pitchers carry too much injury risk, and other veteran studs are either too expensive or aren't as good as Yelich.
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When the other 3 prospects have a total of 1 start in MLB between them, there's just no way of knowing that. Brinson looks to be the only bust because thus far he's been the only one to have a sustained MLB opportunity - and he fell on his face to start his MLB career. There just as much chance of Brinson having the best career of the three and Diaz, Harrison, Yamamoto all amount to nothing more than a footnote on Christian Yelich's Wikipedia page referencing how in the world the Brewers acquired him.
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Yelich is a cheapish best player in the game controlled though his prime - The fact he doesn't command 1/3rd of the Brewers' entire team payroll makes him astronomically more valuable than 4 young MLB everyday players. It's not even close.
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Unless one of the four prospects becomes an annual MVP or Cy Young contender, the Brewers stole Yelich from the Marlins - there really isn't any other way to evaluate the trade at this point. Even if all four wind up having decent MLB careers, the Brewers win the deal in a landslide by getting Yelich's prime years under an extremely team-friendly contract. Great to see Yamamoto have a good first start, particularly in beating the Cards!
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So I guess now he's back in the camp of a top prospect again? It's now past the point of Brinson just needing time in MLB to adjust - he's proving to be a MLB disappointment that is taking up a majority of his pre-arbitration years of cheap team control by being really bad at the game's highest level. This trade will live on forever and be used as fodder in response to negative reactions to trades from prospect huggers.
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Reading through the first 5 or 6 pages of this thread where the initial reactions were posted is a special kind of entertainment, particularly with it appearing more certain by the day that the brewers acquired a generational talent for what amounts to a couple Broxtons, a 2b who might turn into a good mlb player if he is allowed to develop another 5 years in the minors, and a pitcher that has "upside" simply because when compared to the other prospects in this trade he better be great - even though my opinion of yamamoto is he hasn't been a prospect long enough for everyone to realize he's just a guy.
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yes, with today's off day I had to look at how the former Brewer farmhands are doing that were shipped to Miami for Yelich...godawful starts across the board, with Yamamoto still yet to pitch. Too early to draw conclusions, but safe to say Marlins' brass is probably wishing for improvement quickly. When you really stop to think that both Harrison and Diaz would've had to find their way onto Milwaukee's 40 man roster at some point before being subject to next year's Rule 5 draft, their value to the Brewers' organization probably looks alot smaller considering the pile of OF options, what appears to be a sustained opportunity for Villar to play 2B alot, and Hiura likely being their choice for 2B of the future - particularly when the Brewers were adding two MLB OFers to their roster for the next 5 years (1 in Yelich as part of the trade, the other with the pending Cain signing that was in the works as this trade came together).
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If you're into the show/movie format involving drugs and a main character narrative as things unfold (ala Blow, Goodfellas), then Narcos is a great show. First two seasons focus on Pablo Escobar, while Season 3 centers around the Cali cartel following Escobar's death. I'm pretty sure they were working on filming a 4th season centered around Mexican cartels, but a location scout was actually killed looking for sites in Mexico that delayed filming/release of that season. I think it's still coming, though. I also really enjoyed Ozark, but after how season 1 ended I struggle to see how a 2nd season could keep things within the realm of being realistic and keep the main characters all aboveground.
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Not only this, but we have 5 years of Yelich after coming off two .800+ OPS seasons in a pitchers' park, rather than 6 years of Brinson starting with the inevitable growing pains of figuring out major league pitching and MAYBE becoming a Yelich-level player for the last 3-4 years of his team control. This is 100% why I'm ok with losing Brinson in this deal. Plus, you open up 40 man roster space that would've inevitably had to go to Harrison and Diaz this season and likely Yamamoto after next season - talented prospects who aren't ready for the majors for at least another 2-3 seasons. It's the same type of trade the Astros made with the Brewers when they acquired Gomez and Fiers - they sent out talented prospects, obviously, but they weren't near ready to contribute at the MLB level for them and were likely to be part of a very crowded 40man roster problem, because their management at the time (including Stearns, btw) figured younger players in their organization were going to start crowding prospects out. Unless Yelich suffers a career-derailing injury, we get basically all his prime years at a nice price, whereas the Astros got a gimpy Gomez and over-his-head performing Fiers for a couple.
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this offseason has dragged on so slowly that teams eyeing Santana in a potential trade aren't going to suddenly jump ship or ask for more Brewer prospects to finish the deal because of yesterday's acquisitions in Milwaukee. It's very likely that any Santana trade agreed to in principal between GM's hinged on both the Yelich deal and even moreso the Cain signing. Since Cain's signing won't be official until today, I believe, a Santana trade couldn't happen 1st. I'm intrigued by the idea of a Santana, Cain, Yelich OF with Braun at 1st if and only if another FA starting pitcher gets signed. Otherwise, I'd rather use Santana in a trade to acquire a starter in hopes that Braun puts together a reasonably healthy season in left. I think Cleveland's a better fit than Tampa based more on Santana headed towards arbitration already after 2018. An Archer trade probably would require pitching prospects headed to Tampa in addition to Santana, and I think we all know who that would be. Cleveland has some SP depth and they are obviously in a position to win now - so they'd be more willing to bolster a hole in the MLB lineup and worry about Santana's increasing cost later without having to get pitching prospects as part of a deal, especially if the Brewers take back Salazar/Kipnis as part of a potential trade.
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To bad Ray didn't pan out so either he was a gem still in the system or included in this trade, allowing us to keep Harrison or Brinson. I'm going to give Ray at least one more MiLB season before saying a 5th overall draft pick didn't pan out. Yes, he's been disappointing thus far...but the talent is still there to drastically improve on-field results. This trade essentially swings the door wide open for him to play everyday at whatever level he needs to be at and progress towards MLB. Harrison basically broke out in the AFL, but has still been inconsistent at best - yes, his ceiling is sky high, but I'd like to see him do it in the minor leagues 1-2 more seasons before feeling confident he could realize that potential. I'm sure the Brewers could've found a way to make it work, but he was going to need to be protected on their 40 man this year clearly before he was ready to contribute in Milwaukee. To me, the main thing that could hold Brinson back is injuries - and from the Brewers' perspective he profiled as a player they would have needed to be very patient with to allow him to adjust to the majors. I think he'll have a nice MLB career, but it's not like we didn't get an already great player in return for him - and Yelich will be a Brewer basically as long as Brinson will be a Marlin before he reaches free agency.
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Lists discussing no upcoming 40 man roster crunch fail to include guys like burnes and hiura, or some other very young prospects who will force their way towards mlb quickly if injuries don't derail them. This trade reminds me of what Houston did to stay ahead of their own 40 man issues before some of their older prospects got crunched out. This trade clears 3 players from that 40 man issue (diaz, brinson, and harrison), and replaces them with 5 years of a great all around outfielder in his prime at a bargain price. It's a great trade unless you overvalue prospects and don't realize that the brewers minor league cup board is far from bare.
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Love this move, as burnes and hiura are still brewers, and yelich fills key of spot for the next 5 seasons at a good price. The brewers gave up some prospects that are boom/bust potential, and I wish them well in miami. Truth is that if any of the players dealt wind up being as good as yelich in their mlb careers, it will be a surprise, and this trade is for 5 years of yelich, not 1 or 2!