Fear The Chorizo

When sandwich artists and big box department store greeters are earning more than $15/hr with benefits, and with one of the end results of that policy push being $5/dozen eggs (not free range/conflict free/virtue signal-positive eggs, but the cheap ones most of us savages get), "good talent" should absolutely earn six figures in this economy.

The track of record of both McGinn and Florio related to Rodgers is one that they both despise him, and this article kind of feels like wishful thinking on their part. The Packers may very well move on from Rodgers, but it's not because they're disgusted with him.

If you didn't already realize as much after he won the Cy Young award in 2021 and entered into arbitration and there wasn't a contract extension announced that offseason, I'm not sure what else you were expecting.

There's also a fine line between using a comprehensive season-long set of data to come to a conclusion that a player like Urias isn't attacking early in the count enough, while neglecting to put it into proper anecdotal context - a different poster pointed out Urias' overall swing rate dipped during a chunk of the season when he was going through thumb injury issues, kind of an expected thing. How many of the called strikes Urias let go early in counts last year were middle-middle fastballs? I don't see anywhere in the article pointing to specific data that Urias was letting too many middle-middle fastballs or even any waist-high strikes sail by early in counts without swinging, just that he's letting called strikes go by. All that's included is a chart showing average fastball height based on # of strikes in a count across the entire league, which differs in total by about 3.5 inches. There's a big difference between swinging at a meatball and a pitcher's strike early in a count. Am I missing something with the graphic stating he does most of his damage on middle middle fastballs, but there isn't a distribution of pitches called strikes that Urias didn't swing at that would indicate there's a ton of hittable pitches Urias is letting go by compared to peers? And the article mentions Urias may be trading too many singles in effort to gain more walks...isn't the end result of a walk or a single in most at bats the same for a hitter - meaning they end up on 1st? I get that a bloop single is often better than a walk with runners on base in terms of scoring runs, but once again specific scenarios and breakdowns of what Urias' approach was in those spots need to be looked at before simply stating in the article that if he swings the bat more he's going to be a better hitter this year.

With his current approach, Urias draws one walk for every two Ks, and maintains an OBP roughly 100 points higher than his batting average while slugging at a pretty good clip for a utility infielder. There's a time and a place to try and ambush a get me over strike, and anecdotally Urias has been known to do just that - I don't see the point in trying to force all these Brewer hitters to become uber aggressive in effort to try and hit every strike deemed a meatball, particularly ones on the roster who actually don't have a K rate problem and who draw a good amount of walks as part of their offensive value.

The article fails to mention the possibility that Tellez's approach with taking seemingly hittable pitches could have alot to do with scouting reports and him keying in on a certain pitch/location early in counts - if he's sitting on offspeed trying to jump on a get me over strike and the pitcher instead throws a mid 90's cutter, he's not going to do anything with that pitch. It's easy to say, "Get more aggressive at pitches that wind up being in the heart of the zone" - but the approach Tellez has used to become a 30+ HR slugger at the highest level of the game appears to be one where he works counts as much as possible and likely is sitting on certain pitches in spots. We've got to remember that he's never been considered an all-world hitting talent that can adjust to any pitch at any time - his swing path is actually quite long, which to me indicates he prefers to try and get into predictable hitter's counts to key in on a fastball headed for the strike zone to do damage...and until he gets to those counts he's probably got a specific pitch and location he's keyed in on to actually swing. Nothing wrong with that approach. For a guy like Tellez, limited shifting should lead to higher BABIP just by default with the exact same approach he has, so I wouldn't change a thing and hope for better luck to generate better offensive production overall while maintaining quality slugging output.

Try 6.4 Layoffs appear to be happening in tech and on the coasts. Here in flyover country there are still huge amounts of open positions. Job openings are great, but a good number of them are likely due either to a lack of workers in that area qualified/experienced for those positions or the compensation being offered in those roles by employers isn't enticing enough to get people to work for them. ''We're Hiring" signs and job postings can quickly be taken out of windows and off recruiting websites, too - oftentimes replaced by "Going out of Business" signs. In my field, one thing I'm noticing with my company is a ton of upper management folks retiring across offices all over the country - it's mainly a product of my industry being around roughly 40 yrs and the baby boomer generation that really made their first lifelong careers in it are ready to move on. So the job openings we have as a company are more in the backfilling of roles as people are leaving the workforce, basically treading water as a company and not growing in terms of # of employees. Just the sheer volume of Americans hitting that retirement age is likely driving increased hiring beyond what a struggling economy normally sees, because in the end companies need bodies to fill roles.

Some of the tea leaves I've been reading indicate the consumer spending portion of economic output has been propped up by people dipping into their savings and racking up credit card debt at an unsustainable pace to maintain their day to day quality of life in the face of inflationary pressures - there is some growing concern that these things are going to come to a head later this year and there's going to be a sharper than expected dip in economic output. In short, the start of 2023 is kind of a dead cat bounce on the consumer side of things economically, and inflationary pressure isn't going to ease fast enough to avoid a rough end to this year.

Peralta has a history of minor shoulder issues that cost him portions of the regular season, so it's not surprising to try and manage his workload - however, the Brewers' organizational philosophy of having a roster with a 6 man rotation and some long guys in the pen should be about all the extra management needed for any starter, Peralta included. Giving stretched out pitchers more than the rest a 6 man rotation offers could be just as problematic to a pitching arm as what a 5 man rotation rest cycle would be. So, if Peralta is healthy and it's his turn to pitch within a 6 man rotation, give him the ball. I just think we have to cross our fingers that 2023 winds up being a largely healthy and effective season for Freddy, which would give the Brewers a great top 3 rotation arms to churn through the regular season.

So is this still because it got really cold over a month ago during the typical refinery holiday shutdown period, or is it more due to the fact they've stopped drawing from the SPR for a few weeks and wasted the previous year not getting domestic production capacity (both extraction and more importantly refining) to a place where it could keep up with demand? And this is before any actual small volume purchases to start refilling the SPR directly reduce available crude for fuel refining. If we thought gas prices were bad last spring/early summer, I think this year's saying "hold my beer", even with economic output sputtering.

I think that contract extension for Peralta keeps Freddy propped way up the organization value pecking order for sure....but his onfield performance and frankly limited availability due to injury issues has diminished his value well outside the top 5 assets to the organization, IMO. Fact is Peralta has pitched over 100 innings at the MLB level just once (2021). Freddy has electric stuff when he's healthy, but he's got a history of minor shoulder issues and has such an athletic delivery for a small framed guy you've got to wonder if minor injuries are something we've got to live with him every season....or if one significant injury is going to really diminish him. Availability as a pitcher carries tremendous value, and even if people believe pitching injuries are a random occurrence some pitchers are snakebit more than others in that department.

I think if Chourio has a good 2022 season, he's going to be in Milwaukee sooner than a couple seasons from now.

Valuation means nothing in terms of actual dollars to spend unless you sell the team, or unless you borrow against that valuation. This article talks about how the Cards and Cubs have been big spenders in the NL Central relative to the rest of the division this offseason - to that I say "of course"....look at what the television/broadcast contracts for the NL Central teams are along with market size and you know why the Cubs and Cards can spend more than the Brewers. Their average ticket prices are also significantly higher than the Brewers...perhaps this article should include a push to dramatically increase the average ticket price for Brewer games in order to bolster actual revenue and afford longterm contract extensions, so they can at least be competitive with the rest of their division financially.

I actually like the idea of a RB early - if it's the right guy, and Robinson would fit the bill as the right guy. In this year's draft, it wouldn't surprise me if he goes much higher than his current projection, though. Dillon is a bellcow-type back, but I don't like the idea of paying him a ton of $ to play 3-4 more seasons in Green Bay and live through the inevitable injuries/wear and tear of a power running back. So, provided Jones is a cap casualty the RB room is pretty thin, especially 2-3 seasons out. As a roster, this team needs new safeties, TE, RB, and OLB. Interior DL would be nice but assuming Clark is still here next season you have to roll with Wyatt next to him based on what he did down the stretch and the fact he's a 1st round talent and fill in behind it with veteran depth.

They only started soliciting bids. They didn't actually buy any yet. That comes next month. I know - they have stopped taking out of the reserve to supplement whatever other supply is coming in from producers to refine, and that loss of product entering the refining market isn't going make the price of gas drop. That can also help explain a portion of the dip in refinery utilization, too - although this time of year its common for refinery output to drop a bit (not 12%, but some) for a few weeks no matter what the weather is doing. End of year cleaning/equipment maintenance and staffing limitations over the holidays aren't anything new - particularly at the end of a year when refineries were basically running at max capacity most of the time. And knowing the government is going to become a buying customer for the forseeable future is going impact oil futures markets. I doubt they are in any hurry to rapidly replenish the SPR anywhere close to where it was a year ago but they probably do need to get it back over 500M barrels, unless things really get bad economically and they can buy oil at $30 a barrel to totally replenish the reserve and keep oil companies operating because demand has cratered.

That along with the fact they've finally stopped drawing from the reserve a few weeks ago helps explain why the price of gas has shot up $0.30/gallon by me in two weeks during what is typically the lowest seasonal period of demand, even before this limited sale happens and oil actually gets siphoned away from the market and back into empty storage tanks. The fact that this initial bid process is for purchasing 3 million barrels when the SPR was depleted of ~225 million barrels in the last year indicates how long this buyback process will inflate prices at the pump over where they'd be without needing to put oil back in the reserve. I think the average sale from the SPR was with oil around $96/barrel - right now it's at low to mid $70s, so the govmint will make a 30% killing on buying enough oil to refill about 1% of what they removed from the reserve. Despite the plan of instilling price caps/controls on buybacks independent from the market, these fixed price contracts won't look nearly as attractive to producers when they will be able to sell oil elsewhere for much closer or even more than $100/barrel, which is where prices will head once again as the year goes along. This also all assumes there won't be any new geopolitical or weather events that would typically warrant drawing from the SPR to prevent supply problems or price shocks over the course of years, not months or weeks.

I will repeat - Attanasio's net worth currently hovers around $700 Million dollars, most of which is tied up in investments that have lost value over the last few years with market gyrations. He does own controlling interest in the Brewers, but isn't the sole owner of the team as there are plenty of minority ownership stakes. Why people want Mark A. to spend like Cohen (who is worth closer to $15Billion dollars with a B) to increase player payroll beyond what this organization can support on its own revenues defies reasonable logic and expectations. I think there is a better likelihood Mark A. sells the team before he gives Arnold his savings account information to start spending like a fool on veteran free agents.

I really like Adames and would really like to keep him a Brewer another 3-4 seasons....but since contract extensions and free agent deals don't work that way in baseball I've just never seen the point of considering a longterm extension for Adames given the years of control they still have on him. The Brewers can pay him yearly for the next two seasons until he'd reach free agency in 2025 after his 29-yr old season. Keeping players of Adames' caliber through their prime at a reasonable cost needs to be the Brewers' focus, not looking to identify more veterans to throw longterm money at. Why throw $250+M at a player well into his 30s who will only diminish in value defensively at SS as he ages, and who is a low-300's OBP player? I think the Brewers need to pay him what he gets in arbitration for 2023, and potentially explore trading him next offseason before the 2024 season to get some return value and give the SS position to Turang - who also is a very good defensive SS.

I really like Adames and would really like to keep him a Brewer another 3-4 seasons....but since contract extensions and free agent deals don't work that way in baseball I've just never seen the point of considering a longterm extension for Adames given the years of control they still have on him. The Brewers can pay him yearly for the next two seasons until he'd reach free agency in 2025 after his 29-yr old season. Keeping players of Adames' caliber through their prime at a reasonable cost needs to be the Brewers' focus, not looking to identify more veterans to throw longterm money at. Why throw $250+M at a player well into his 30s who will only diminish in value defensively at SS as he ages, and who is a low-300's OBP player? I think the Brewers need to pay him what he gets in arbitration for 2023, and potentially explore trading him next offseason before the 2024 season to get some return value and give the SS position to Turang - who also is a very good defensive SS.

Hiura's total regular season plate appearance totals since 2018 (minors + majors): 2018: 535 - K rate of about 20% between A+ and AA 2019: 591 - K rate of about 28% between AAA and MLB 2020: 246 (COVID year) - K rate of 34% 2021: 403 - K rate of about 37% between MLB and AAA 2022: 325 - K rate of about 39% between MLB and AAA I don't believe he's suffered a major injury to cause him to miss significant time over the previous 2 seasons, so those season-long plate appearance totals in 2021-2022 are a disservice to his development as a hitter, particularly at the MLB level. Is there a correlation between a higher K rate and more sporadic ABs? Sure there is, but then the flip side is he likely wouldn't have had as as much turbulence out of lineups at the MLB level if he wasn't striking out so much, too. He also dealt with having his mother fighting lymphoma throughout 2021. Many players scuffled offensively during that shortened COVID season in 2020 - but I think it impacted Hiura moreso than other more established hitters, as he had to suffer through trying to make that 1st adjustment all young hitters do against MLB pitching once they've gotten a book on him during a season without video assistance in the clubhouse and when extra work/practice opportunities were severely limited for fear of virus transmission. the most easily explainable reason for the sky-high k rates in recent years is likely the changes made to his swing path to improve launch angle and HR rate, which reduces the length of time his bat is in the hitting area of a swing....for a guy who leans on hand speed so heavily to do damage at the plate and naturally has more of a slider-speed bat in today's game because of it, that was probably a very poor decision for his career arc. But, I also really hope he's gotten his eyesight checked....

Apparently OPS is no longer a sought after stat teams should use to build offensive rosters, since the Brewers shipped away two of their top 3 bats from last season in that department (Renfroe and Wong) and all of Hiura's other metrics make him a terrible hitter who can't possibly maintain an above league average OPS...despite the fact he carried an above league average OPS last season in sporadic playing time. Getting on base and hitting for power/slugging (all other metrics on how a player gets there be damned) must not matter much in today's MLB...except for the fact the 2022 MLB playoff teams accounted for 8 of the top 10 and 11 of the top 16 offenses in MLB based on team OPS last season. The Brewers were somehow 10th in team OPS last year, which indicates if they pitched up to expectations they would've been a playoff team. My point isn't necessarily that Hiura should be the everyday DH in 2023 based on the current roster configuration...I hope Winker reverts back to pre 2022 production and Hiura improves against lefties enough so they both are positive offensive contributors. I think his role will get sorted out in Spring Training if he's still on the roster - my point is the production Hiura did provide in 2022 warranted him getting more opportunities last year with that teams' offensive roster, and he wasn't given them at the MLB level primarily because they paid a mid 30s OF on the physical decline $8.5M to provide a 0.700 OPS across 580 plate appearances as the primary DH. To me the worst decision was to send Hiura to AAA early in the season, after he had a good Spring Training then proceeded to be a bench player who had most of his ABs come against lefthanded pitching into May. The same people saying small samples should be discounted then taking a 3 week stretch of semi-consistent at bats from Hiura in late August/early September as a reason why he stinks is just too ironic for me. Hiura really has just 1.5 seasons of MLB plate appearance across parts of 4 MLB seasons, which is honestly still not enough of a sample to accurately forecast what he'll do moving forward.

Hiura was more a victim of having a minor league option left when he was demoted early in the 2022 season, which happened after he was primarily the DH option against lefties and McCutcheon was DH-ing against righties and then playing the OF against lefty starters because nobody else on the team was hitting worth a lick. In the Brewers' spirit of maintaining roster flexibility, the fact that Hiura is a poor defender with reverse splits crushed his role as a DH platoon asset against RHP and a late inning PH option off the bench. I was against the Brewers signing McCutcheon from the day the ink was still wet on that contract, because I wanted them to give Hiura the DH role full time on this roster and give him extended playing time without fear of being benched or shuttled back and forth to AAA every time a 14th pitcher came off the DL and needed a roster spot. I thought it was a poor allocation of limited financial resources and didn't have significant upside - the only upside were if McCutcheon had a platoon-mate to be the DH against righties. Hiura was still that option, but the roster wasn't managed that way early in the season when it would've helped solidify Keston's role on the MLB roster. Assuming Hiura is still on the Brewers' 40 man roster come spring training, this is a make or break spring for him as a Brewer because the minor league options are gone. Like it or not with all the warts, Hiura still had the 4th highest OPS on the team for hitters with more than 100 ABs last season behind only Renfroe, Rowdy, and Wong.

It was never, ever intended to be used as a way to manipulate gas prices at the pump, definitely not to the extent that it was drawn down (~40% reduction in 2022) knowing the current domestic production capabilities won't be enough on its own to both maintain domestic supply and build the reserve back up without prices spiking again. Let's just hope there isn't further international strife that disrupts the supply to the US domestically now that the reserve has reached a level where it can no longer be used as a rainy day fund for energy supply. And buying it back next year in the midst of a recession will actually keep gas/oil prices higher than they otherwise would be during a period of diminished demand.

yes and no - the concept of upping the quality game for auto manufacturers to maintain market share has been around for a looong time, which has definitely led to increased vehicle age on the roads over the years. If US automakers hadn't upped their game 15 years ago many more of those companies wouldn't be around. The recent surge and now drop in used car prices is more supply and demand-based, not just because cars magically got more reliable in the past two years so nobody even wanted to buy a different (new or used) vehicle than the one(s) they currently have.

they've dropped about $.40/.50 a gallon here in MPLS area the last few weeks, too. end of summer gas formulations, typical seasonal drop in driving miles for winter in the midwest, and a good ol' fashioned recession is a good mix to get those prices back down. Also, just checked the SPR stockpile graph - seems like oil has continued being siphoned from them even into December, down to levels not seen since early 1984....that's definitely having an impact to accentuate gas price dips for now.