Fear The Chorizo
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Everything posted by Fear The Chorizo
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I think I posted it earlier in this thread, but the rookie contract difference between a mid 1st and a 2nd round pick in a draft year that is by many accounts a down year talentwise makes the 2023 2nd rounder pretty solid, especially if there's also a player that could provide some value coming back and a conditional 2024 pick. The 13th overall pick this year would be nice, no doubt - but it carries a higher salary and that 5th year option.
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That extension was the only way to get Rodgers' 2022 cap # down to something manageable for them to field what they thought was going to be a title-contending roster last season (reduced Rodgers' 2022 cap # by almost $20M, freeing up room to try and get Davante Adams signed). It was an extension that essentially gave them the option for a year to year approach of where both the team and Rodgers was each offseason, knowing at some point they'd likely either eat a big dead cap number and/or trade Rodgers. This is what happens with every team and a veteran HOF quarterback nearing the end of his career in the salary cap era - eventually all the extensions and salary cap can-kicking needs to stop. More often than not when that happens, the following season looks alot more like what Tampa Bay is dealing with in terms of being forced to burn it all down with cap casualty cuts and likely be forced into a lengthy rebuild in a dud year or two. As it stands, the Packers aren't forced to do anything at the moment even with Rodgers' 2023 cap # on their books, and they've got a young quarterback ready start without needing to find an immediate heir apparent in this year's draft. It's not a no-lose situation for the Packers, but boy it could be a helluva lot worse than it currently is.
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Prior to Brees and the Saints, Payton was the Giants' OC that got Kerry Collins to a Super Bowl, then went to Dallas and was instrumental in them signing/developing Romo. Also easy to forget that prior to going to the Saints and playing in Payton's scheme, Brees was good but wasn't exactly considered a sure-fire HOF quarterback. The fact Payton has been around leading productive to potent NFL offenses for the last 20+ seasons gives him plenty more bonafides then Hackett - there's plenty of reasons why Hackett got canned less than 1 season into being a head coach and why Payton succeeded him
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Sean Payton has nothing to do with this....but I'll humor you and state that Wilson will have a better 2023 season than last year. Nathaniel Hackett's calling card at the NFL level is the fact he's Paul Hackett's son.
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He did such a great job with Russell Wilson last season...
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I'd be just fine with a 13-15 swap, the Jet's 2023 2nd rounder, and a conditional 2024 draft pick that could range from a mid-round pick (if Rodgers retires and doesn't play in 2024) all the way up to a 1st round pick (if the Jets make the 2023 postseason OR Rodgers plays in 2024 for a team other than the Jets). If 2023 is considered a down draft year, I'd be hesitant loading up on 1st round picks in this draft and carrying more than 1 of those 1st round rookie contracts compared to adding an early 2nd rounder.
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You could replace Rodgers, MLF, Murphy, and Love with Favre, McCarthy, Thompson, and Rodgers from 16 or so summers ago in this post and it would be the exact same position too many people held then. Let's just go watch the NCAA tournament and worry about this nonsense in a few weeks.
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Because he's 40 and he wants to play - if he didn't want to play then sure, sit the bench and cash a huge check while destroying positive vibes from all corners instead of just retiring.
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A 40 yr old HOF quarterback doesn't willfully ride the pine to cash checks and waste one of the last years of his ability to actually play at the NFL level simply out of spite for the organization he's been a part of for almost 20 years. Rodgers cares too much about his legacy to be that jaded. He would also be the biggest hypocrite ever by repeating the same history that got his career started, which he's consistently maintained being something he'd never do himself.
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Anyway, that panic on Monday was a good money making opportunity...I picked up some $SCHW at a discount and it's already up 12%. I hope you've already sold to lock in that profit
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This seems accurate, but the question becomes just how long the Jets are willing to wait and play chicken with their own short term outlook by not acquiring Rodgers. The draft takes place well before June 1 and that option bonus doesn't actually have to be paid until the first regular season game, if I'm not mistaken - are the Jets really willing to not have a starting quarterback through the draft and into training camp with their current roster makeup? If this goes sideways for them, everyone in that front office and coaching staff is fired. "Short term" to the Packers can mean 4-5 more months if they're not hellbent on getting 2023 draft picks as part of the trade - I really doubt the Jets are able to hold the line that long until leverage would appear to be more on their side.
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At the time it became apparent that Rodgers was back in for the 2022 season, the Packers also had a more lucrative offer on the table for Adams to sign compared to what he got from the Raiders - so the amount of doubt with being able to "run it back" without Adams didn't occur until after any decision process on whether or not to try and trade the current league MVP took place. It would've been incredibly dumb to trade Rodgers last season once he indicated he wanted to play and return to Green Bay - frankly this all played out pretty well for the Packers longterm because it would've been incredibly bad for Adams to have signed that deal instead of wanting out and asking for a trade to a specific team.
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It was mostly after he took the wrong side on a polarizing issue.... I don't think there is a right or wrong side to that issue itself, I've always maintained to each their own - The problem I have with Rodgers from that whole ordeal in 2021 lies with how he played games with the words he chose ("immunized") in that initial training camp presser to intentionally draw attention away from him on that issue when many other players and people who made that same decision were being crucified for it publicly and oftentimes improperly pressured by their own workplaces. He should have instead stated his own personal medical decisions are his or just been completely open and honest about his decision not to get the first round of Covid shots publicly. That being said, I've always separated Rodgers' off the field noise from his onfield performance and standing in the locker room - his performance on the field offset any of the noise the organization/fanbase had to deal with from him by leaps and bounds up until this offseason. It's not at all that the off the field stuff has gotten worse, it's that the combination of Rodgers' onfield performance/age/contract and Love sitting there ready to play makes it feel like the right time to move on. And I do think Rodgers still has a few really good seasons left in him if he can stay healthy.
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Wanting to steer this over to Love - really happy for him to get this opportunity headed into year 4 as the fulltime starter with a pretty solid offensive roster. Yes, the Packers will need to pick up that 5th year option before this season starts, and most assuredly will do so - but they'll get a full 2023 season to watch him play and sort out if he's deserving of an initial contract extension that could soften that 2024 cap number (if necessary) and likely come at a bit of a discount given Love would only have 1 season as a starter...almost exactly the same setup as Rodgers' initial contract extension. I can't fathom Packer fans are spoiled enough to have history repeat itself, but what Love did in garbage time against a really god Eagle defense on thanksgiving weekend looked an awful lot like what a young Rodgers did in Dallas on a November Thursday night game a long, long time ago. Can't wait to see the kid play!
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He's washed up and now he isn't preparing for the season, lol. It is weird that people have that take and then also are prematurely upset at whatever the Packers will get as a return by trading him, the annual retirement/trade circus, and his problematic contract out of town.
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If he has desire to be great, it kinda sucks as that's 3 prime years he's not accumulating counting stats. And who knows what impact not playing for at least 2 of the years will have on his development. Hopefully it has about the same impact it did on Rodgers and we get to wait 13-15 more years before we're back in this same situation about a trade of a HOF Packer quarterback to the Jets, and feeling like they just won't be able to get enough return in a trade.
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People that were disappointed the Packers didn't trade Rodgers after his back to back MVP awards last offseason will be disappointed with the trade return this time around no matter what it is. ARod is pushing 40 yrs old and will have an insane cap hit to any team that trades for him and hopes he plays for them at least a couple more seasons - of course the Packers aren't getting multiple 1st rounders for him, and they never were (including last offseason, IMO). Packers currently sit under the salary cap with both Love and Rodgers' current contracts on the books - a big part of the return they will get from trading Rodgers SHOULD be salary cap relief by getting all of his cap # off their books for 2024 and at worst maintain his current cap number with a trade. The Jets on the other hand have to get Rodgers at this point and the sooner they do so, the better for their 2023 outlook - the Packers should be in zero hurry, because it's not like a quick trade before June 1 would suddenly free up a mountain of cap space to go out and sign free agents. That cap # is a sunk cost for the Packers' 2023.
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In my perfect world at the moment, I think it would be awesome if Rodgers says he'd be good with a trade to the Jets as long as they sign all his guys + OBJ, the Jets then sign all of them and somehow find a way to make the cap implications work, and then the Packers trade him to the Colts.
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Honestly, I don't really get the big issue with the current FO. They've had some god-awful 3rd round picks and yeah nothing's been perfect, but generally I feel like attempts have been made to improve things with varying results. It's much more acceptable to have god-awful 3rd round picks behind solid to really good 1st and 2nd round picks, rather than the other way around like the end of the previous GM's run was doing. The front office has been just fine with how they've built and retooled the roster over the years under the constraints of having a veteran quarterback carrying a massive contract. Look at what Tampa Bay has had to do this offseason even after TB12 had more team-friendly contracts while playing the same retire/unretire nonsense over the same stretch of time. People will say "well, at least they won a Super Bowl", which is fair - but even with the crappy end of half defensive call in that NFCCG, Rodgers had multiple chances late in that game to win it and he didn't get it done.
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Kind of feeling a bit like bank execs, the Fed, and Gov't representatives in control of the economic levers of power are in the same boat as a young Kevin Bacon. I don't think we're on the verge of an economic disaster, but I also have zero trust in the bank exec and finance talking head reassurances of recent days while acting like they know exactly how this is going to play out. There are many banks that are way overleveraged in the current interest rate environment, which is only going to get worse.
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I think I said it right after his training camp presser a few seasons ago - GM is not something ARod will ever do based on his propensity to value over the hill veterans on 53 man rosters.
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He ran a spread offense in college that was a 1 read system and OSU routinely had mismatches all over the field due to talent superiority - it's easy to have a 70% completion percentage when you're throwing to largely uncovered receivers or against defenses that have to sell out to stop a running game. I think those concerns should also be looked at long and hard with evaluating whether Stroud or for that matter Young are going to become stars at the NFL level in this year's draft. Fields is not an accurate passer at the NFL level and routinely throws into schemed coverages, and nothing about his 1st two seasons in the NFL indicates he's about to develop into a competent passer. His propensity to run alot sets him up for injuries. It would be the most Bears thing to do to sign Fields to a longterm extension and waste their current rebuild plan with an average and inconsistent NFL quarterback. I think they would've been better off trying to trade Fields and then picking "their guy" at the top of this year's draft.
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So the holdup is potentially a 4-time MVP quarterback wanting to make sure the Jets sign a great run blocking WR to a free agent contract before he is good with getting traded there, too? I mean, I get wanting some familiarity around you in the huddle, but honestly is Rodgers wants "his guys" with him, he should have latched on to better guys.
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The problem will be giving a huge chunk of future cap space and hitching their wagon to Fields, who isn't a longterm answer at quarterback for a team who wants to perennially contend. And they should have a ton of cap space with the godawful roster they had last season that earned them the #1 overall pick.
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The only team really being hurt by any sort of delay is the Jets at this point...perhaps he's just giving them a taste of what they're in for the next 1+ seasons. My guess would be the trade isn't finalized because both the Packers and Jets are sorting out draft compensation options should Rodgers play more than 1 season in New York, and possibly sorting out a restructure of Rodgers' existing deal to even make that a possibility for the Jets without carrying a massive cap # in 2024. GB was never going to be a major player in free agency this season no matter what Rodgers opted to do - they're just sorting out 2023 draft options, and perhaps filling a roster hole or two with a mid tier free agent on the O line or safety.
