DuWayne Steurer

This is a fair point. I focused exclusively on left handed hitters because league wide, left handed batters were shifted on 55% of the time last year, while right handed batters were shifted on only 19% of the time. I think that's a pretty drastic difference. Interesting that Adames was shifted that much as a RH batter.

Oh, for sure I don't think that the shift is to blame. I think it's a part of the overall bigger picture though. That being said, I'll throw my opinion in and say I'm actually not in favor of the ban of the shift, even if it is part of the downward trend of lower offense and ugly baseball. It is what it is though, and going forward whether teams and players are for or against it, they have to play within the boundaries that have been set (except maybe the Astros, somewhow hahaha) and the way I see it, if you're going to be a fan of baseball, you have to accept that the game changes, sometimes for the better, and sometimes for the worse. Things can't go our way 100% of the time, all the time.

With league-wide rule changes in place for defensive alignments in 2023, the left-hand-heavy Brewers offense could benefit more than others. We'll break down the numbers and see what, if any, advantage the Crew might gain from the new ruleset in the coming season. However you feel about the new rules regarding infield defensive alignment, they're coming and probably here to stay. With strikeout totals soaring, defenses shifting on nearly every batter, and batters favoring launch angle and exit velocity over putting the ball in play, league-wide offense plummeted to an OPS of just .706. The league OPS was .700 in 2014 and .700 back in 1992 Over the past thirty years, the .706 OPS posted this past year is the third lowest league OPS. Baseball offense is down, and the powers that be don't seem to like it. On top of that, with strikeouts up and fewer balls in play turning into hits due to the shift, the phrase that more than one person has bandied about in the game (and without) is that the game "isn't aesthetically pleasing." With yearly tweaks being done at multiple levels in the minor leagues, the big one coming in 2023 is the *ban on defensive shifts. The asterisk shows up as we will see a partial ban on defensive positioning (at least not yet). The rules state that the defense must have four players with their feet on the infield dirt and two players on either side of second base when a pitch is thrown. With that in mind, defenses will still have a fair amount of freedom to shift a second baseman deep into the hole, have a shortstop right on top of second base, have the third baseman play in the shortstop position so on. We won't see a third baseman playing in short right field and a second baseman playing fifteen feet behind the first baseman, cutting off sharp line drives into the right field corner. So how does this affect or benefit the Brewers? Rule changes regarding defensive positioning should affect pull-hitting lefties nearly equally across the league. In 2023 the Brewers look to feature (again) a lefty-heavy lineup with mainstays Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez, newcomer Jesse Winker, and early indications are that Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick could both receive ample playing time in their rookie campaigns. Of the three lefties returning who'll see major playing time, Tellez is the most extreme pull hitter. (via FanGraphs) Partial SeasonsPostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2018 TOR MLB 1.06 26.0% 38.0% 36.0% 11.1% 22.2% 21.1% 0.0% 42.0% 30.0% 28.0% 18.0% 42.0% 40.0% 2019 TOR MLB 1.02 23.7% 38.5% 37.7% 10.3% 21.6% 1.0% 0.0% 42.0% 39.3% 18.7% 15.6% 42.8% 41.6% 2020 TOR MLB 1.38 20.0% 46.3% 33.7% 6.3% 25.0% 6.8% 0.0% 36.8% 37.9% 25.3% 20.0% 42.1% 37.9% 2021 2 Tms MLB 1.08 20.6% 41.2% 38.2% 12.4% 12.4% 11.5% 0.0% 36.5% 36.9% 26.6% 15.9% 48.5% 35.6% 2022 MIL MLB 0.86 15.6% 38.9% 45.5% 12.3% 18.7% 4.4% 0.0% 41.4% 39.7% 19.0% 17.5% 42.1% 40.4% Total - - - MLB 0.99 19.6% 40.0% 40.4% 11.3% 18.7% 6.2% 0.0% 40.1% 38.3% 21.6% 16.9% 43.7% 39.4% Teams shifted 78.4% of the time against Tellez, resulting in a .020 drop in his wOBA, per Statcast. Over the past two seasons, Tellez's shift data has been fairly consistent with teams shifting on him often, and Tellez hitting well in his opportunities against standard alignment. Another factor in Tellez's performance to be considered has to be the .215 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Well below his career norm, and any season he's had prior, the Brewers have to expect that number to rebound to some degree. Tellez doesn't strike out at the pace of most 30 - 35 home run sluggers, but having a bit higher BABIP would boost that slugging and OPS. Whether teams are shifting or not, that number seems unsustainable for another full season for Tellez. Despite the seeming perception of Christian Yelich grounding out repeatedly to second base, his spray chart, hit chart, and all the data shows that he distributes the ball evenly to all fields. (via FanGraphs) PostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2013 MIA MLB 4.58 23.0% 63.2% 13.8% 0.0% 16.7% 8.2% 0.0% 32.0% 36.0% 32.0% 17.1% 48.6% 34.3% 2014 MIA MLB 3.42 21.2% 61.0% 17.8% 1.3% 11.5% 6.0% 50.0% 27.8% 40.9% 31.3% 15.8% 50.0% 34.2% 2015 MIA MLB 4.16 22.5% 62.5% 15.0% 0.0% 12.5% 5.2% 0.0% 31.7% 40.5% 27.7% 17.1% 49.9% 33.1% 2016 MIA MLB 2.82 23.4% 56.5% 20.0% 5.6% 23.6% 6.0% 100.0% 36.0% 35.1% 29.0% 17.5% 44.5% 38.0% 2017 MIA MLB 2.20 19.4% 55.4% 25.2% 2.5% 15.3% 4.2% 50.0% 33.3% 37.4% 29.3% 15.9% 48.8% 35.2% 2018 MIL MLB 2.20 24.7% 51.8% 23.5% 4.9% 35.0% 6.6% 33.3% 34.9% 38.1% 27.0% 14.5% 37.9% 47.6% 2019 MIL MLB 1.20 20.9% 43.2% 35.9% 7.5% 32.8% 6.2% 0.0% 39.3% 37.4% 23.3% 14.4% 34.8% 50.8% 2020 MIL MLB 1.70 19.4% 50.8% 29.8% 0.0% 32.4% 1.6% 0.0% 38.7% 33.1% 28.2% 8.1% 50.8% 41.1% 2021 MIL MLB 2.29 22.0% 54.4% 23.7% 2.9% 13.2% 7.7% 100.0% 35.3% 35.3% 29.4% 15.9% 49.1% 34.9% 2022 MIL MLB 2.55 18.4% 58.6% 23.0% 5.3% 14.7% 6.2% 33.3% 34.4% 35.3% 30.3% 13.9% 52.2% 33.9% Total - - - MLB 2.46 21.5% 55.8% 22.7% 3.9% 21.7% 5.9% 44.4% 34.0% 37.3% 28.7% 15.4% 46.2% 38.4% Accordingly, teams don't shift on Yelich all that much, at 30.6%, and interestingly when they do, his wOBA last season was .368 in 206 plate appearances compared to the .311 wOBA posted in his non-shifted plate appearances. During previous campaigns from 2018 to 2021, teams were shifting on Yelich more in the 50-55% range. It could be that Yelich becoming more of a singles and doubles hitter, and definitely a guy who uses all fields, is forcing teams to defend the whole field. Jesse Winker is an interesting case, as he had an extreme down year in 2022, seemingly due to playing injured for much of the season. Winker's shift data is strange in that in all but one season in his career, he has posted a higher wOBA while being shifted than not shifted, yet teams continue to shift against him, and his spray charts and hit data suggest he is a heavy pull hitter. (via FanGraphs) PostseasonPreseason ProjectionsMinor LeaguesRegular MLB Seasons Season Team Level GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2017 CIN MLB 1.70 16.5% 52.6% 30.9% 3.3% 23.3% 2.0% 0.0% 40.8% 37.8% 21.4% 12.2% 52.0% 35.7% 2018 CIN MLB 1.24 24.0% 42.1% 33.9% 8.9% 8.9% 5.1% 50.0% 37.1% 37.1% 25.7% 11.8% 44.3% 43.9% 2019 CIN MLB 1.96 26.4% 48.7% 24.9% 4.3% 23.2% 1.5% 0.0% 39.9% 36.3% 23.7% 15.5% 43.2% 41.4% 2020 CIN MLB 1.67 23.1% 48.1% 28.8% 6.7% 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.2% 31.7% 22.1% 10.6% 40.4% 49.0% 2021 CIN MLB 1.26 24.7% 42.0% 33.3% 9.5% 20.7% 4.8% 0.0% 39.4% 35.6% 25.0% 15.8% 47.7% 36.5% 2022 SEA MLB 0.96 20.6% 38.9% 40.6% 17.4% 9.7% 4.3% 0.0% 38.5% 35.7% 25.8% 20.5% 50.8% 28.7% Total - - - MLB 1.32 23.2% 43.7% 33.1% 10.5% 17.1% 3.4% 28.6% 39.5% 35.9% 24.6% 15.6% 46.8% 37.6% There's a lot to parse here. Winker's hard hit percentage fell off a cliff last year, after trending down in 2021. His flyball percentage was well up, but it didn't really translate into home runs in Seattle, which is somewhat to be expected. First and foremost, for Winker's 2023 to be successful, he needs to be healthy. Digging through the data, it's hard to tell how much of Winker's drop off was due to injury, playing in Seattle, or other factors. With the limited ability to shift next year however, a healthy Winker should be able to benefit. The rest of the Brewers roster still has a lot of left handed sticks as of early December. Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick should see plenty of time in the outfield. Victor Caratini and newly acquired utility infielder Abraham Toro each hit from both sides of the plate. It's possible on any given night the Brewers could send as many as six batters to the dish from the left side of the plate. The Brewers struggled against left handed pitching last year, and with their current makeup, it's possible that trend could continue. As the off season continues, it will be interesting to see how General Manager Matt Arnold approaches the lineup makeup of the team as it currently stands. With youngsters Frelick and Mitchell, who have had varying success against left handed pitching in their minor league careers and who are both more suited to on base roles rather than slugging and run producing roles, the Brewers offense could see a boost against left-handed pitching with these types of players more able to utilize the diamond with the shift being banned. Sal Frelick's splits in 2022 - (via StatCast) Platoon Splits Team Lg Type PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS HBP AVG OBP SLG OPS Nashville Sounds Triple-A vs Left 77 66 26 1 2 1 11 6 7 3 .394 .467 .515 .982 Biloxi Shuckers Double-A vs Left 65 55 15 1 1 2 7 6 10 3 .273 .369 .436 .805 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers High-A vs Left 24 19 4 1 0 0 1 5 4 0 .211 .375 .263 .638 Nashville Sounds Triple-A vs Right 140 123 43 10 0 3 14 13 9 2 .350 .417 .504 .921 Biloxi Shuckers Double-A vs Right 188 169 56 11 2 3 18 14 23 1 .331 .384 .473 .857 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers High-A vs Right 68 60 19 4 1 2 8 8 10 0 .317 .397 .517 .914 After an initial struggle at High A, Frelick hit well against lefties at both stops the rest of the season. Whether that will translate into success against the tough lefties he'll face at the major league level remains to be seen, but certainly those numbers are encouraging. Ultimately, regardless of where the fielders stand, the Brewer offense should be better than it was in 2022, and it absolutely has to produce better results than it did against left-handed pitching. However, with a bevy of pull-heavy lefties on the roster, a ban on the shift could make life easier for a few of the guys who will most likely be installed in the middle of the order in Tellez and Winker. Despite the fact that the shift ban should affect everyone equally, a team heavy on left handed batters like the Brewers could benefit more than some if the lineup stays as currently constructed. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is the ban on the shift going to play any kind of role for the Brewers current lefty-heavy offense? Will the Brewers continue to struggle against left handed pitching regardless? Does Matt Arnold have a few more moves up his sleeves that will make a bigger difference than where the second baseman stands? Let us know what you think in the comments! 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weirdly, I'm glad he stayed with the Yankees.

It matters very little what it does for the Mets WS chances. What does matter is the tiny fraction of a chance the Brewers have or had of signing Burnes (lol) or Woodruff (smaller lol, but still) get smaller every time one of these pitchers who can't stay healthy (DeGrom) or were born before churned butter was a thing (Verlander) get massive AAV. Burnes is gonna get 250 mil+. There's little or no doubt about that at this point. Even at age 30+, people need to stop throwing around the "hometown discount" tag on Woodruff. Obviously guys who perform at even a reasonably high level are going to get paid stupid money. Maybe the argument is that they shouldn't be re-signing these guys, and that's a different discussion to be had, for sure. But if one is of the mind that the Brewers could, should, or would want to try to re-sign even one of these guys, the market to do so gets tougher when these contracts get tossed out there.

Bears can move the ball up and down the field no problem, but they don't really score a lot. They average like one more point per game than the Packers. They rush for like 190 yards per game but they seem to have a hard time punching it in.

How did Jaire go from (legitimately!) one of the best corners in the league to ....whatever this is so fast? He's butt. He couldn't cover a dead leaf blowing around in a slight breeze right now.

Tear it down.

lol. I'm not even mad at this point

Here's my first impression immediately after the game.... This defense is hot trash.

He puts a nice amount of zip on the ball with easy effort. Nice change of pace compared to Hundley, who it seemed couldn't throw the ball more than 4-5 yards downfield with any mustard on it.

I don't know what difference the scheme you're running is if absolutely none of your guys can tackle.

All the guys on IR

Benkert can go on twitter and blame Davis and that's fine. He's right, Davis shouldn't break that route deep etc, etc. Rodgers is a vet QB, and he of all guys should recognize where that safety is, and if he's got Randall Cobb or a vet TE running that route, chuck that ball and try to squeeze it into that window. Don't try squeezing it into that space with the safety sitting RIGHT THERE and be like "lolol that wasn't the QB's fault the TE has to slide down the line and make the play". These guys ..... wow.

holy crap! A stop on third down.

Elgton Jenkins finally does something right and gets a penalty called. Nonsense. Luckily AJ got the TD back.

Nobody could tackle Walker, he just ran out of gas.

If we keep this game close enough to keep Philly's foot on the gas, Hurts is gonna run for three hundo.

wow. never had the ball.

lol

While I agree, and I think many fans (including myself!) have held on to that culture for a long time, I think it's also allowed the administration, alumni, fans and basically everyone involved in UW football to fall into a pretty strong sense of complacency. I've long said that the 8-9 win seasons, with the occasional 10 win punch-up and a trip to an Orange Bowl or whatever NY day bowl is what we can and should expect, I'm also happy to see the administration and McIntosh take a shot and go outside the normal established boundaries and try something different. I'm also glad that after they tried it once with Gary Anderson and it didn't work.... they weren't shied away from trying it again. Just because something doesn't work one time doesn't mean we need to be stuck in 1970's football forever.

That's the only thing I can see that would open up that job. The alumni and the board aren't going to take Day getting kicked around by the rival like that too many more times.

I'm gonna laugh my buttski off if the unthinkable happens and Michigan loses in the Big 10 title game.