1992casey

It's an interesting little blurb. As you mention, he wants to see ERA changed somehow to consider the effect of inherited runners. I figure that ERA itself is a long established stat which carries some flaws; this flaw is among them. But due to its long existence, rather than changing ERA itself, I'd simply try to come up with alternative measures and call them something else. That's already going on, but there's always room for more work.

Well said. The team's good enough now that it can weigh a single season as being at least as important as future seasons. I'm only against the options that cost a ton of money over a bunch of years.

Changing leagues has been mentioned several times by more than one person. People probably aren't commenting further because it's likely that the effect of doing that would be difficult to prove one way or the other. I'm surprised no one has mentioned the Home Run Derby. That's something Carlos has brought up on several occasions. He's said he feels it screwed up his swing and that he never wants to do that again. As far as giving him a chance, I can't recall a single person on any message board advocating not picking up his option. The real division occurs (obviously) when we talk about how much to spend to keep him after next year. There's minor division when discussing the 'in between' choices. It's not that people don't appreciate Carlos, but at times it ends up sounding that way if someone doesn't want to see the team invest a small fortune into keeping him. EDIT: I took a quick look for something like that, but came up empty. It seems that I've seen information like that before, but I can't recall where it was or how good it was. Maybe you can find something?

The main reason I commented as I did was to illustrate the flaw in concentrating solely on triple crown stats. While not perfect, OPS covers a whole lot more and is more accurate. The same can be said for a host of other stats. We don't necessarily have to focus on OPS, but rather than falling back on BA/HR/RBI, we should be looking for corroboration elsewhere. The other reason for my comment was to point out that not all .290-35-130 lines are created equal and stats like OPS, VORP, RC (RC27), OBP, SLG, ISOP, etc. differentiate those similar triple crown lines. While there are flaws with the modern stats, there are many fewer flaws than with the triple crown stats. I really can't believe the amount of debate about RBI. To me it shouldn't take a stathead, a formula, or an empirical study to tell is that individual RBI totals are affected in a big way by others. All I can say that if Carlos gets 130, I'll cheer him on for breaking the team record and I'll definitely get enjoyment out of it. Beyond that, I'd like to know a lot more if I'm going to decide how much to pay him. As far as HRs, they generally show us something, but then you can run into someone like Tony Batista, who can find a way to hit 30 homers, drive in 100, and still be bad or horrible. (26 HR, 99 RBI, .663 OPS, 76 OPS+ in 2003; 32 HR, 110 RBI, .728 OPS, 88 OPS+ in 2004) We talked about the volatility of BA in the Forecasting OXS/OPS plus examination of Brady Clark thread. It's affected a lot by statistical variance and luck. The thread doesn't conclude how much statistical variance is involved, but there's enough to encourage us to look for information elsewhere. I'd look at it this way, though. If Carlos hits .290 and walks at a rate that's matches his career best (95 point difference between BA and OBP in 2002), things look pretty good. If he walks at his career rate (53 point difference between BA and OBP), his OBP becomes a big yawner. Obviously, very few are going to be convinced to change their minds, but at least everyone's being respectful to each other this time around! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Geno's likely right, though. I think there's probably a lot of repetition at this point.

weirdos19, If Doug isn't using VORP, he's using something similar that better suits his tastes. There are lots of good metrics to choose from. He'd certainly be familiar with VORP, though. It's necessary to know and understand a stat before choosing not to use it. I don't think anyone is saying we necessarily need more from Carlos Lee for the $16.5 million he's getting this year and next. What we're saying is that a player that the market might value at as much as 4 years/$40 million needs to have had a much better career. Carlos Lee justifies his job?and his pay?on the club right now. But come contract time, that .825 career OPS becomes paramount. If we can pay him like a career .825 OPS 31 year old should be paid, fine. If Lee goes .290/35/130 next year and still puts up an .811 OPS, I'll be unimpressed. Right now, he gets a pass because even at that relatively low number, he helped drastically improve this year's team. If he goes .290/35/130 with an .850 OPS, he's still not worth a huge lengthy extension. If he goes .290/35/130 with a .900 OPS, we'd still have to consider that he took 8 years to finally get around to doing it, and we sure couldn't gamble on it ever happening again.

Actually, that's an excellent illustration. But keep in mind that we just might use Omaha's temperature from a day to two ago to predict today's temperature in Milwaukee. MLEs are just a tool, and a tool has to be used appropriately. If you're going to drive in a nail with the handle end of a screwdriver, you stand a good chance of cutting your hand. Excellent analogy. That's actually what I was looking for earlier today when I posted some links to the second page of the Equivalencies thread. The best I could do was come up with second hand evidence from some respected sources. That's not all that bad, though. Sometimes the math?heavy stuff loses a lot us us, anyway. I'm in that category. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Here are some pertinent quotes about MLEs in the 2005 Major League Equivalencies for Brewers prospects thread. Quoth Chris: Quoth Al: (In both quotes, I added the bold type.)

Given the discussion in the current What to do with Carlos? thread, I figured I'd go link hunting, using a couple of JoeHova's quotes as a basis for a Google search. Minor League Equivalencies (conversation between David Grabiner and Gary Huckabay Sabermetric Manifesto - The Baseball Archive (Section V near the end: Other sabermetric arguments) Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT: Abstracts Trom The Abstracts (2004-11-14) (Discusses the "myth 'that minor league batting statistics are not valid as an indicator of major league hitting ability'") Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT: Abstracts Trom The Abstracts (2005-01-04) (Mainly miscellaneous comments)

Once Russ pumps out some nice graphs in a thread, it's probably a good nominee for this forum. Anyway, I think this one can be included, as there's a lot of statistical discussion: What to do with Carlos?

What the heck, Jeff Cirillo fits right into reillymcshane's list. Year Ag Tm Lg PA OPS+ +-----+-----+-----+-----+ 1994 24 MIL AL 139 74 1995 25 MIL AL 384 105 1996 26 MIL AL 643 120 1997 27 MIL AL 661 106 1998 28 MIL NL 694 122 1999 29 MIL NL 697 118 2000 30 COL NL 684 96 2001 31 COL NL 586 98 2002 32 SEA AL 547 74 2003 33 SEA AL 293 50 2004 34 SDP NL 81 48 2005 35 MIL NL 219 110It's worthy to note his age when he signed his big four year (2002-05) extension: July 12, 2000.

That's quite a broad generalization, but people are concerned because of information including, but not limited to:Peak ages for hittersThe Science of ForecastingThe Effects of Age on HittingWhat is a Normal Career Trajectory?Age and Batting Performance in MLB (Part 1 of 3)Age and Batting Performance Continued (Part 2 of 3)More on Age and Batting Performance (Part 3 of 3)Age and Established Win SharesIs Sosa Finished?Cleveland's contracts could backfireAdditionally, here's the Bill James axiom, summarizing the conclusions drawn or mentioned in the most or all of the articles above: And here's a cool graph: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/2659_02.gif And a comparison of Carlos to similar players: Carlos Lee age-based similar players, beginning at age 30 through the end of their careers or through last year.

Branch Rickey said it (in the 1940s, I believe).

I don't think Russ' stats are too arcane at all for a message board audience. I think any fan likes to see homers and RBIs. And while I think RBIs are worthless for evaluating an individual, I'm not such a scrooge that I don't get enjoyment out of seeing a player rack them up. Honestly, I have no problem at all with Carlos was paid this year or with what he'll be paid next year. I agree with you that he made some very important contributions to this year's team. I also feel that he'll be a significant contributor next year. And I'm not going to quibble about a couple million in overpayment (if that's actually the case). Where I want to draw the line is in risking gross overpayment. Offering him a contract in 2006 that pays him $10 million in 2009 stands an excellent chance of doing that. If Carlos is a reason the Brewers are contending next year, I would think most trade deadline possibilities would effectively be eliminated. He'd be, in effect, a rental player at that point, but that's just what happens in a pennant race. He wouldn't have to be let go for nothing, though. Offering arby would ensure draft choice compensation. That's not all that bad. Teams that are active in the free agent market also let free agents go. That's how they re-tool their farm systems. It's just something that we, as Brewer fans, aren't used to. As I said before, paying an arby-inflated salary in 2007 would likely be fine with me, too. That would simply be the cost of doing business. Wins 87-92 tend to cost more than the first 86; sometimes that cost carries over into the next season.

I know how you feel about RBIs in determining a player's worth (I agree), so I'm figuring your comment is more applicable to the 'counting stat' part. Some people actually prefer counting stats on the basis of playing time being worth something. I prefer rate stats. Still, with either one, we end up qualifying them with plate appearances or at bats. I guess the bottom line is that there are good and bad counting stats (runs created being good and RBI being bad), just like there are good and bad rate stats (OPS being good and BA being bad).

Overbay, Carlos Lee just your average Major Leaguers

Those types of incentives are prohibited. Contracts have to stick to things like games played, starts, plate appearances, innings pitched, etc.

Calling Russ! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'd have to think that Scott Podsednik would have a lot to do with skewing AL numbers down this year, while in past years, Barry Bonds had a lot to do with skewing NL numbers up.

Slugging percentage and isolated power cover home runs and other extra base hits quite nicely. The two runs created stats take care of runs scored and RBI, offering the added benefit of isolating a player's production from that of his teammates. When ranked in a group of 21 ... 16th, 18th, 12th, 13th, 15th, and 12th aren't in the top half. But it's certainly possible to come back and suggest that if more left fielders were included (9 teams weren't represented), Carlos would probably look better. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

An elite corner outfielder would have produced a .900-plus OPS at least a few times in a seven year career. Carlos has produced at the rate of .775 (fine for a rookie), .829, .789, .843, .830, .891, and .811. His career OPS is .825 and his career OPS+ is 111 (11% above average when compared to all players in his league, not just corner outfielders). Here's where Carlos ranked among the 21 MLB left fielders who qualifed for the batting title this year: 3rd in plate appearances (688)16th in batting average (.265)18th in on base percentage (.324)12th in slugging percentage (.487)13th in OPS (.811)9th in isolated power (.222)10th in runs created (100.1)15th in runs created per 27 outs (5.67)12th in BB/PA (.083)To me, to be elite, a player should rank in the top five of most of the above categories, (batting average and plate appearances excluded). Still, given all this, I don't think anyone is advocating immediately ridding ourselves of Lee. We knew what we were getting when he was acquired, he didn't fall a massively below those expectations, and he certainly ran circles around Scott Podsednik. Many of us are just leery of committing to an expensive contract keeping him in a Brewer uniform until he's 34.

He was actually a little below average for a left fielder this year, but he was so close to average that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Using Carlos Lee's Baseball-Reference.com page, I'm getting slightly different numbers than DHonks, but they're not enough to change anything. I don't have a problem with the concept of counting on .325-.345; it's just that .325-.345 isn't very good. What makes Lee stand out (in the wrong direction) is that there aren't many low OBP sluggers. Of the 47 major leaguers with a better 2005 slugging percentage than Carlos, only four had a lower OBP. Here's the breakdown of the top 48 sluggers' OBPs, including Carlos: [u]| Rk Player OBP | Rk Player OBP | Rk Player OBP |[/u] | 1 Todd Helton .445 | 17 Brian Roberts .387 | 33 Troy Glaus .363 | | 2 Jason Giambi .440 | 18 Miguel Cabrera .385 | 34 Matt Holliday .361 | | 3 Albert Pujols .430 | 19 Michael Young .385 | 35 Randy Winn .360 | | 4 Alex Rodriguez .421 | 20 Jim Edmonds .385 | 36 Chad Tracy .359 | | 5 Derrek Lee .418 | 21 Mark Teixeira .379 | 37 Cliff Floyd .358 | | 6 Lance Berkman .411 | 22 Gary Sheffield .379 | 38 Aramis Ramirez .358 | | 7 Travis Hafner .408 | 23 Jeff Kent .377 | 39 Miguel Tejada .349 | | 8 Jason Bay .402 | 24 Chase Utley .376 | 40 Mike Sweeny .347 | | 9 Carlos Delgado .399 | 25 Geoff Jenkins .375 | 41 Andruw Jones .347 | | 10 David Ortiz .397 | 26 Paul Konerko .375 | 42 Bill Hall .342 | | 11 Vlad Guerrero .394 | 27 Ken Griffey .369 | 43 Jermaine Dye .333 | | 12 Pat Burrell .389 | 28 Richie Sexson .369 | 44 Carlos Lee .324 | | 13 David Wright .388 | 29 Hideki Matsui .367 | 45 Jay Gibbons .317 | | 14 Morgan Ensberg .388 | 30 Dave Dellucci .367 | 46 Jason Lane .316 | | 15 Manny Ramirez .388 | 31 Jason Varitek .366 | 47 Jorge Cantu .311 | [u]| 16 Adam Dunn .387 | 32 Jhonny Peralta .366 | 48 Alfonso Soriano .309 |[/u]Even Lee's career best OBP (.366) barely gets him out of the bottom third of this list.

2005 MLEs: Corey Hart- .277/.338/.466 (.804 OPS) Nelson Cruz- .250/.331/.445 (.776 OPS) 2005 Major League Equivalencies for Brewers prospects

I think a pricey Carlos Lee extension would stand an excellent chance of giving us another Marquis Grissom situation: a nice player signed for too long and too much money at too advanced an age. One option I'd consider, though, is offering arby for 2007. Carlos would be overpaid for one year, not several. If he were to choose to go elsewhere, the draft choices would come in handy, especially if the team is in the market for Type A and B free agents.

Carlos Lee age-based similar players, beginning at age 30 through the end of their careers or through last year.

Russ, I concur with the time assessment. That and avoiding periodic repetition?especially when necessitity dictates the same posters writing essentially the same thing. Here's another thread which should now come over here: Final Record Prob., 90% Chance - Updated 9/30