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1992casey

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Everything posted by 1992casey

  1. 1992casey
    It could have been started here, but the moderators and members seem to agree that there's no problem starting those threads elsewhere if the forum's appropriate and they get a wider audience for the time being. The cool thing about moving threads over here after the fact is they don't get eaten up by attrition. Valuable information can be referred to later on.
  2. 1992casey
    I'd definitely want to include pitching in this discussion. The Cards had a 3.48 ERA and .715 OPS against them. The Brewers had a 3.98 ERA and .732 OPS against them. OBP should also be factored in somewhere. The difference isn't huge, but should be considered (.338 for St. Louis; .331 for Milwaukee).
  3. 1992casey
    Now that Colbyjack has pointed out that there's a new Baseball America 2005 player search, the search on the front page of this site should likely be updated to reflect that. I'm no expert, but it looks to be a matter of simply adjusting a couple lines in the javascript at the top of the page's source code. Unfortunately, it looks as if the new form uses 'post' instead of 'get', meaning that updating the Mozilla plug-in may not be so easy.
  4. 1992casey
    These threads don't have a massive amount of discussion, but they do contain some very useful numbers:2005 Major League Equivalencies for Brewers prospectsCompare 2005 Brewers to PECOTA projections
  5. 1992casey
    Quoth Daron about the Jenkins homer:
  6. 1992casey
    This is a perfect question for the Statistical Analysis Forum. The more basic questions don't have to be excluded just because some threads cover topics like Log5 Equation. I'll see if I can get around to starting a thread over there which addresses your question. If I don't get around to it right away, please feel free to beat me to the punch. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif As Brian stated above, whizkid said it very well: Why would you reply to a post you don't respect and then wind up going around 10 times with them? You can't convert everyone immediately though it seems like you're trying your best. That seems to have been the biggest problem of late. Unfortunately, even though they should know better, veterans have been at least as guilty of doing that as newbies. The biggest issue I see with newbies seems to actually happen with very few of them. Some come in and start scolding the entire board within their first few posts. My suggestion to those thinking about replying would be that if you don't think what you're going to say is very tactful, let the moderators handle it.
  7. 1992casey
    You'd think there'd be enough radio stations around for both the Brewers and Packers to adequately penetrate the state.
  8. 1992casey
    During Jeff Cirillo's best seasons, he used to sleep with his bat.
  9. 1992casey
    I second Brett's motion. Also, are there any stray Hall of Fame threads left on the Major League Forum?
  10. 1992casey
    Whoever used that word on Thursday is the 'chuckle'. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Brewer record in streaks this year: 1 game: 21-23 2 game: 11-6 3 game: 5-7 4 game: 3-1 5 game: 0-2 6 game: 0-0 7 game: 1-1
  11. 1992casey
    It's officially sheetswannabe's fault if the Brewers lose! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif We really ought to get that word into the cuss filter.
  12. 1992casey
    From what I've read, I believe a player is penalized even if his coaches position him nowhere near a zone he's 'supposed' to be covering. I don't know if a player gets 'extra credit' for getting to balls outside his assigned zones.
  13. 1992casey
    This is what an HTML comment looks like. What you're trying to type apparently looks too much like one. It's an ezBoard thing that Brain can't do anything about, much like Apple.ton being a 'naughty' word, because it contains 'apple.t'. You can get your effect with em dashes (?>, ??>) or en dashes (?>, ??>).
  14. 1992casey
    I mentioned on another forum today that with both Hall and Hardy we have to 'slice and dice' the stats. How we lay them out is certainly open to refute. Giving Hall credit where it's due, September is well on its way to being a third excellent month. He's even drawing walks! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif That makes me feel better about him, even though we've seen the 'same old, same old' during three other months. For the past couple months, I've consistently used May 23rd because that's when J.J. has come back from being benched to work in the cage. It's a tangible date to work with and there's been a difference since then. To apply that date to Hall probably wouldn't be fair. What I like about J.J. is that he's trended upward. The positive about Billy is that he's been very good more often than he has in the past. Both of these statements speak well of the two players.
  15. 1992casey
    There's only one player where I recall Ned being especially candid, and that's Alex Sanchez. Ned was still awfully diplomatic about his comments, though. I agree with you: bashing a player publicly is generally going to be counterproductive.
  16. 1992casey
    This thread is delaying a potential trip to Happy Hour! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif Offensively, as a SS, J.J.'s been above average on the season, he's been well above average since May 23rd (when he was benched to work in the cage), he's been further above average since the All Star Break, and he's been even more above average in the last month. What Ned says doesn't necessarily reflect what he does. Yes, we've gotten peeved on this forum when Ned's said stuff that seems to indicate that he disregards stats. But he certainly seems to be using stats despite those complaints. It sure as heck takes statistical analysis for Rich Dauer and Davey Nelson to align the fielders. And just this week, in a snippet during a televised game, Ned told us how Mike Maddux spends 'hours' on the computer devising each starting pitcher's individual game plan. He made it a point to say that it isn't just a general plan; he said it's tailored to both the pitcher and the opposing batters. I'd have liked a more technical comment from Ned explaining why Range Factor is a poor stat, but I'm not going to fault him for not doing that.
  17. 1992casey
    That's more or less how I feel. I think the three year age difference is huge. Service time can be somewhat of a tie-breaker. But, actually, I think the bottom line is that Milwaukee is fortunate to have both these players.
  18. 1992casey
    SoCal, Hall ranks slightly ahead of Hardy at SS in some of the Baseball Prospectus defensive stats (Runs above replacement, runs above average, Rate, Rate2). It's not by enough to matter much; they're within 10 runs (1 win) of each other per 100 games. As far as 2005 fielding pct., I have to wonder if there's a little bit of 'randomness' involved given sample size. Who's to tell if some of the errors Billy made at another position might have occurred at SS given rearranged playing time? I think you make a good point, though. I'm not sure there's a huge defensive difference between the two once all is said and done.
  19. 1992casey
    Brett mentioned it on page 2: The Cardinals, as a team, have a 1.74 GB/FB ratio - by far and away the highest in either league (the next closest is 1.52). The Brewers sit at 1.11, second lowest in the NL.
  20. 1992casey
    Not only that, when statheads come up with a new offensive metric, they frequently have the raw data to apply the new stat to what's happened well into the past. We don't have the benefit of such data on defense.
  21. 1992casey
    Geno, If we had a post of the week award, I swear you'd win it at least half of the time! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  22. 1992casey
    gifted1, You can use defensive stats as long as you acknowledge their limitations. But I agree with you in that observation is extremely important. I think the general approach used by most is to take a several defensive stats and weigh them accordingly. Unfortunately, the flaws in Range Factor stick out like a sore thumb. I might use it once in a blue moon, but if I use it in a message board post, I generally go out of my way to acknowledge why it generally stinks and why I feel I might have found a situation that's an exception.
  23. 1992casey
    That doesn't make Range Factor any more useful when comparing players who are on different teams. I think we could have possibly used Range Factor to a point when comparing Hall to Counsell last year. However, Hardy and Hall have spent a lot of time playing next to each other this year. They're playing under different circumstances. Zone Rating, while not without flaws, is a better stat than Range Factor. Hardy and Hall have almost exactly the same Zone Rating at shortstop this year (.840 for Hardy; .837 for Hall). That puts them both right in the middle of the pack among MLB shortstops.
  24. 1992casey
    Why Range Factor (putouts plus assists per 9 innings) is a bad stat:It's affected by the players around a given fielder.It's affected by pitchers' groundball/flyball tendencies.Heck, it's even affected by pitchers' strikeout rates.To summarize, balls have to be hit to a fielder in the first place. If balls aren't hit toward him, he's penalized.
  25. 1992casey
    Are you saying that the rest of us are able to post longer messages than you can? Have you tried copying and pasting from a word processor or text editor? I'd love to see something like that. Often, duplicate threads start with very good posts. Reading-wise, it'd probably be a little more complicated when long threads are merged, but it'd sure work when a short thread is quickly locked.
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