GenoSeligPrieb

All he did was vent, which is a significant part of what this forum is all about. "I came to this forum to escape the constant emotional rants of angry fans from all the other Brewer message boards. I'd rather discuss the implications of Sheets' injury, not tell everyone how angry he makes me for letting me down, once again. We all get frustrated at times but If that's what this forum is supposed to be about to any significant degree" Russ: I know I can discuss this with you in a straightforward manner, so I suspect you'll take my reply in stride.. But...what do you expect? It's forum for Brewer fans. Literally thousands of them. You can't expect everyone to share your same measured, unemotional response to this. Some only care to predict/discuss the team's reaction to the injury, some come to vent, others come to vent at the venters. That's cool. It would be pretty dull here if only a small handful of only the most reserved Brewer cognoscenti visited to discuss the ramifications of Ben's latest injury, without emotion. If someone wants to complain, let them and let it pass.

I think the only reasons Steve Phillips is on ESPN are: - He's a former GM. Whether he was any good at it or not, doesn't matter. And if he WAS talented, he'd be one of those in management who uses ESPN or Fox as a career rest stop on his way to his next gig, a la Bill Parcells, Lou Piniella and next, Joe Girardi. I'm surprised ESPN hasn't started some rumors about Phillips being mentioned as a candidate for the GM job in (insert struggling franchise here) to artificially boost his street cred. They will soon... - Phillips generally managed a New York team. This gives him at least SOME cache in the New York market, which is all ESPN cares about anyway. - Steve is comparatively photogenic, and doesn't stumble reading the TelePrompTer. I found myself turning down the volume to "Mute" during the Home Run Derby last week when they cut in (migod, they really DO have to control every sports broadcast they air, don't they?) and showed those brain-dead pieces from Phillips and Kruk where they stand in front of another dumb-ass stage floor painted as a mini playing field. After the first 7 participants experienced difficulty homering in the first round, Kruk said "Well, next up is Ryan Howard, and all he needs is 5 to qualify for Round 2! Will he make it?" Phillips replied "There's ABSOLUTELY NO QUESTION WHATSOEVER!" Of course, Howard had a tough time battling the sun and wind, and did NOT reach round 2, so there WAS a question whether he'd make it. Migod, that's irritating. In classic sports talk radio speak, Phillips played one of the older tricks in the book, by expressing a Strong Opinion. He may not believe it, 5 minutes after that day's show, but at that time, he's supposed to furrow his brow, read the TelePrompTer, and play-act. I'll bet if you asked this Ken doll the next morning whether he genuinely believed Ryan Howard would make Round 2, he'd ask "I can't remember. Which guy was I supposed to be supporting, again?"

"There just is no need for a comment like that. " Hey, as Brewer fans, we're all stung by this news. But in a discussion forum, Hauser expressed his frustrations as a fan, with a relatively well-paid player whom we have to make do without, pretty often. He didn't mount a personal attack on Ben, he didn't question his commitment or conditioning. All he did was vent, which is a significant part of what this forum is all about. Given some of the nasty rhetoric we've experienced around here, "Brittle Ben" is about as tame as we'll see.

"...i feel our pitching will be fine even with Ben going to the DL again...other teams are drooling over the players in our call ups. we are deep" MBB: OK, I'll spot you Villanueva, no problem. Dominant, polished, nothing left to prove in the minors...fine. YoGa? Yeah, but not as much. I'd rather he were introduced gently into the mix, given his age (in January, he was 20!). Still, that's 2 guys I'll spot you right away. But now we're getting into the Parra/Balfour part of the cornucopia, and I'm getting less and less confident. Playoff teams can't sustain depending on 4 Plus-Arms-With-High-Ceilings to "catch lightning in a bottle" (sorry) in the same season. Again, it's entirely possible this will be short-term, so I'm not getting all excited. Still....these 2 have been down there a bit long, and not for no reason. Parra was at Huntsville for parts of 4 seasons, and migod, Grant's 30 this year! Doesn't inspire confidence...all I'm sayin'

Brittle Ben shows up again... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "With the chronic complainers and I-told-you-so crowd right behind him." Sorry, Ry, but you can't blame him for venting a bit. Again, this may just be 4 starts, and we may be able to sustain that, unlike in other years when Ben would get hurt, and we'd replace him with such luminaries as Gary Glover, Mac Suzuki or Allen Levrault. But it's 4 starts! Since the Cubs have forgotten to lose, and we're up only 3 1/2 games, simple math here alerts my central nervous system to soil my Sans-A-Belts. If it's not an inner-ear imbalance, then it's a bad back, or it's a finger, or a shoulder, or a groin, or a torn muscle. We're still Ben Sheets fans, and personally, I'm proud he represented us in the All-Star Game, and I'm thrilled he chose to re-up with us for his most recent contract. But disclaimers aside, I smells a pattern here, and being forced to make do without him for chunks of so many seasons is getting old.

Exactly! I'm happy Hart has been a solid contributor toward our success. The expectations just haven't been the same for him as a 10th rounder, and not someone with back-to-back NCAA batting titles and a Golden Spikes award. Or a famous ex-player dad as Prince and TGJ are. The expectations for RW have been through the roof (and can you blame us?), which is why so much discussion has been devoted to RW when he fails. Nice post, TC07!

The solid contributer Hart: .298/.368/.508 The irreplaceable Carlos Lee: .297/.354/.514 You've been waiting to start this again, for weeks now. I feel so special!

"Points to Adrian Gonzalez's slump in relation to Rickie Weeks's slump Can someone explain to me how this is even close to relevant with Weeks? " First of all, I'm glad to see our friend NDOG back after an absence! Getting fun around here again... Anyway, I figure the expectation level's similar for hopefully budding struggling young star Rickie Weeks, as they pertain to Adrian Gonzalez. A lot was expected of them, and AG stepped up nicely after some injuries and lapses into bad plate habits. Hope that's all. To me, it seems like RW's recovery from his wrist problems will spill into a third season. It's getting frustrating with him, and all his thumb and wrist problems. My money says it's a finger next. You'd think by now, he'd be at least at the Hart level of development. Not struggling, not an MVP candidate, a solid contributor. If he's hurt, he shouldn't play...all year, if necessary, because while I appreciate the effort, a .720 OPS is not what I was planning on from him. (By the way, NDOG, as a Raider fan, keep your filty miits off our boy, Jerry Porter! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Lane's giving him a clean slate, and especially with Moss gone, JP's our #1 WR)

"I don't think there are any guys out there with 3,000 hits that aren't in the Hall except Rose of course. " Or this criminal. PERIOD. http://www.profbob.com/images/Rafael%20Palmeiro%20best.jpg

(disclaimer) While walks are almost always beneficial...I guess my view here depends on the situation. Try this: Down one run, late in the game, man on 3rd, 1 out, big bulky snail-speed slugger (a Jeff Francoeur type) at bat. Yes, I would prefer a sac fly to a walk. Make it a weak hitter up next, and my sentiment's even stronger. Just tie the game, right? Who's with me? .........*crickets*

This is all fine, and we'll have to agree to disagree........but does anyone have Boosh's stats, 2004 - 2006 from the stretch (anything but bases empty and loaded), vs. those same situational metrics from 2007? He seems different, and the numbers suggest he may be doing something wrong this year, which I hope we can fix. ...All I'm sayin'

I know WHY you're employing that coin toss paragon, Russ. I just don't agree that it applies to human beings pitching baseball games. The coin doesn't get tired after being flipped 100 times. There's no stress on the coin's elbow. The coin can't be going through a divorce, a steroids investigation, nor can the coin be worried about possibly being outed as gay (unless it's one of those flamboyant ones from South America). Under the statistical mindset, you seem (again, correct me if I'm wrong) to hold that a given player's career has 2,000 innings pitched in it, or 7,000 plate appearances, and that over time, it all evens out in the end, right? But what I'm saying is that, yes, a player in his first 2-3 years is Version A of himself...the young, inexperienced pre-arby guy who gets hazed and is looking t stick in the bigs. That guy is a .260 hitter who attempts SBs but his power ain't there yet. Version B kicks in, and he's maturing. Version C has inked that first set-for-life contract, and is still at/near his peak. Version D is hurt. Maybe out for the year. His stats are skewed. Version E is a fat millionaire who's looking to land that one last big deal so he can buy off his mistress and relax when this gig is over. Version F is usually a Yankee, or a late-90's Diamondback, and is only in it for the cash. I think every player's 1-2-3 year set of stats defines him in most situations for a while, but then he evolves, and you can't readily apply those same templates from his past, to his current probabilities, indefinitely.

So, you'll allow this: "He very well may be struggling in the stretch and of course they should do what they can to get his mechanics fixed, " but you then say his 500+ IP overrides that? "but I'd say his previous 500+ IP sample shows that he is capable of pitching from the stretch at the major league level. " Is Ned wrong to react to this, or not? He should, especially because this is only Dave Bush and not Roy Oswalt or Dontrelle Willis, who are much more likely to right the ship on their own. Your mechanics can change a bit, whether you plan for them to, or not. You could have been hit in that balky left shin on a come-backer last week and you're not planting correctly. Maybe your contract's up this season and you want to try to reach 95 on the gun when more scouts are in the crowd. Maybe Adam "Pac-Man" Jones moved in, next door and you can't sleep nights and it's effecting your stamina. Maybe in 2007, your wife left you, to take up with the dashing Bobby Jenks, and you're pitching angry now? Past stats tell a lot, but perhaps not about what's going down these past few months. Do you have stats, over those 500+ IP, which suggest Boosh CAN be effective under potential SB situations, i.e. from the stretch? I'd be interested to see them, because maybe he's rushing his delivery in 2007, and perhaps throwing too many straight fastballs, where he hadn't been, in years past. Could he have issues with Johnny Estrada's ability to gun down runners this year? Maybe he's not as confident or comfortable pitching to JE, and it's harming him. Either way, Boosh has been inconsistent in 2007, and I'm glad Ned's not passively waiting for the sampling size to get large enough before exploring what's been wrong.

"And you're always rhetorically asking, "when is a sample big enough?" but I don't know if you've ever really wanted to know the answer. I've shown many times the uncertainty associated with small samples but I don't think you aren't very interested in that kind of stuff." Define "small" then. In April, we're told it's too early, and that's fine. But what if it's May and a heretofore effective pitcher is getting torched for Month #2? "And how many times are those silly saber guys correct when they suggested that you are better off ignoring those early numbers? This year alone has countless examples." So do I. Roy Oswalt has been amazing for years now. But in 2007 so far, his walk rate is nearly double, and his ERA is up half a run. Do you just sit there and let it continue? Past stats say to ignore it, but he hasn't been getting past his surprising wild streak. I'm of course not sayiing Oswalt's got to be shipped to the pen or traded. But I'm sure Ol' Scrap Iron at least talked with him about 2007, and he and his pitching coach are monitoring his bullpen sessions between starts. OK, I wish Oswalt's 2007 "struggles" were something we had to deal with. I chose him because he's a very soft example of what I'm trying to convey here. But what if we're looking at hitters who had been terrific in the last few years, and who now stink in 2007 (Jermaine Dye, Nomar, JD Drew) and successful pitchers who suddenly find themselves struggling this year (Bronson Arroyo, Dontrelle Willis, Mariano Rivera)? Do you do nothing, out of fear you'll overreact? I'd lay cash that their managers and coaches are working more closely with them...and reacting (hey, it could be they discover an injury the pitcher had been either downplaying or hiding, once they examine him, or as in Brian McCann's case, yesterday on BBTN, a flaw was discovered in Brian McCann's swing this year, and he started hitting last night (4 RBIs). What if Cox had reacted Sabremetrically? McCann's 2007 season would keep slipping into failure. May and June are not too early to turn around someone who's struggling and salvage their season. Especially someone who hasn't established longer term success in the majors. You've GOT to at least react.

"...there are probably less than 450 AB worth of "from the stretch" data for me to look at. Pretty hard to extract much from that. Perhaps Yost is simply aware of some mechanical changes to Bush's delivery that he feels hurts Bush's accuracy when he pitches from the stretch. Otherwise, there probably isn't enough data to draw any firm conclusions from. " A question, Russ. Correct me if I'm off track here, but you dismissed (Sabremetrically? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) those <450 at bats as "pretty hard to extract much" from, rendering them, in your opinion at least, not statistically meaningful enough, right? Even if there were 80 at bats to draw from, for a sample size, what's Ned supposed to do? Ignore what he sees, and wait until August to react to things, because then, the sample size becomes sizable enough to draw conclusions from? Being a manager means you have to react to mistakes and bad trends you see. I understand I'm drawing this example to a logical extreme, but stay with me here, alright RL? What if YoGa goes out there last night and gets torched in the first inning for hits (even, godforbid, unlucky ones!) to the first 8 batters? Do you do nothing, because YoGa's MLB sample size isn't big enough yet? Say, he ends Game One by giving up 10 earnies, and loses. Then, in his second start, you're Ned or Maddux and you see YoGa get b-slapped again. Game 3, same thing. Game 4? Bad! And over these 4 starts, he pitches 8 innings, with an ERA in double digits. Do you demote him back to AAA, or is that considered overreacting? The sample size sure as hell isn't large enough for the Sabremetric community (I'm starting to like that term) to embrace as a sure trend, so what would you do? My rhetorical answer is, you've GOT to do something, and not just for Gallardo. If you're a manager or coach, and you see enough to convince you that Boosh struggles in the stretch position, you try to limit the exposure to that damage, right? Say what you will about Ned or any other skipper who manages with some instinct, but all season long we fans who engage in debates with those of you card-carrying members of the...say it with me...Sabremetric Community...are sample-sized to within an inch of our lives, because "it's too early." Well, there has to come a time, be it April, May or June, when adjustments have to be made based on how a guy is performing in 2007. Last year, he may have been fine, 2005, too. But that was then, this is now. Otherwise, it's paralysis by analysis as you sit and wait for your sample size to grow large enough to be considered significant and actionable. But by then, some bad juju can happen, and you can start falling in the standings, maybe even too far back to recover.

"Yeah because nobody would want a 4.50 ERA quality pitcher in major league baseball, not like half the teams or anything? I mean that seems like a silly post even for you Geno. " Look at this thread for yourself, Ennder. What's silly is making 8, 9, 10 posts, maybe more, I stopped counting... looking for fresh excuses for another terrible Bush performance. That pitch should have been called a strike, if only Hall makes that play, if Bush had better luck, bad scouting (!). It's the fault of the umps, his fielders, the scouts, bad luck, blame Uecker...anyone but the guy throwing BP out there, and I'M the one with the silly posts? Please!

"If the Brewers had a fire sale on Bush at least half the teams in baseball would show interest because of his past success. " And what success would that be? His stellar numbers from 2007? In 2006, he had a very nice WHIP, a so-so W/L record, 18 hit batsmen, .720 OPS-against, and a 4.41 ERA. Overall, decent, but not what can reasonably be called a "success." Maybe it was that 1.26 WHIP, 5-11 mark, .782 OPS-against, and 4.50 ERA in 2005 in the majors, and the 4.42 ERA he turned in, in AAA in '05? Meh. Let's look at his 2004 season at AAA...4.06 ERA Nope, nothing you'd call successful. At the Double-A level and below, he tore it up. But then again, so did pretty much every other player eventually promoted to the bigs. Boosh has had some nice walk rates, which suggests he COULD turn it around, and I'm not giving up on him. -But migod, whenever he gets torched again and again, it's the ump's fault, or his fielders, or it's bad luck. He is what he is. A very average pitcher who was a throw-in in the Overbay deal. "At least half the teams in the majors" wouldn't exactly be lining up to work with Doug to trade us anything of value for this dude.

Well, it's out of my hands now, fellas. He can very well work his way out of this often tough-to-shake tag, but as of now, I hereby christen our spirit-crushing 2007 Designated Rotation Stooge as Dave "Bad Luck" Boosh...

"Geno, Obermueller had 3 hitless innings of relief today! ' Perhaps, JB, but you don't want him back either. This is vintage Obie. Pitch well enough in a limited situation, good enough to trick his manager into believing he can sustain this, and godforbid, even start the next game. Then *kablam!* Next outing? 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 Walks, a Hit batsman, and a partridge in a pear tree. You're too savvy to fall for his wily trcikery, aren't you, JB? Don't believe the hype! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

"Pen is fine. If Bush Deuces his pants then Dessens can come in and take care of business. " I thought it was "dooks", verb, as in "Every time Obermueller started a game, Geno dooked his Sans-A-Belt slacks." Speaking of Obermueller (by the way, his "effectiveness" streak pretty much ended at 1 game), I'm almost afraid to type it, but if Boosh dooks or deuces his pants on the mound tomorrow, I'll have no choice to but to at least temporarily dub him our Designated Rotation Stooge. If he becomes lucid again after a few encouraging starts, then the tag is not sewed on his jersey permanently. It can fall off. But he's the only guy in our rotation this season who inspires such trepidation, as I've seen up the thread here. Pessimist that I am, I'm a bit fearful when he takes the bump this year. I want to be proven wrong. It's out of my hands...

First of all, Al, although it may have been some time ago, I hope your family has at least found SOME peace. Migod, you're making ot tough for me to go at you with all my usual fire and vigor! By the way, berniebrewer4life touched on an important note: There WAS a hot nurse involved! Imagine a cross between Cameron Diaz and the alluring Mirage from The Incredibles! I had to edit to include an anecdote from last week. At home one night, I was on Vicodin, and stupidly thought I could take 2 to chase the pain, and faced the "occasional narcotic effects." I was watching the WGN weather with Lorna and she reminded me that, after grooving on the pinks and yellows of the Canadian Arctic flow, for whatever reason, Tom Skilling's nose was distracting me. She told me that it bothered me to the extent that I asked her to change the channel. I also became out of breath and my pulse raced, but the weather map was just so cool. OK, let's get back to baseball out there before the trans-gender surgery I had done, kicks in... And again, thanks to all.

I want to thank every one of you for your kind words during my absence over the past few weeks. Brad, Russ, Al, Chris?and Brian, in particular, you?ve been class acts. I just wish I knew more of your real names so I can thank you more personally. While my health issues were not life-threatening, and I?m obviously back in decent-enough shape to work today, this whole episode at least gave me some perspective about my friends here at Brewerfan. Lordknows I?ve debated, argued with many of you over the years, and unfortunately it went a bit far in some cases, which I regret. But it says a lot about the character of the people here that even my most vehement ?opponents? have sent their warm regards. So, while the tone of my posts ?out there? in the forums will continue to carry the banner for the skeptical, pine for proven veterans, yearn for a higher payroll, and question the absoluteness of the Sabremetric approach, please know that, behind my words, there will be the undercurrent of respect for you, and if you shared a beer or 2 with me in person, you?d find that this outsized flatlander online persona that I?ve cultivated over the years is not really the same guy who?s writing this today. One day soon I hope to meet as many of you as possible. If not in Wisconsin, maybe even at a Brewerfan outing in Chicago? Anyway, again, thanks and now that I?m back, please readjust your protective cups, ?cause I?m mighty angry with Ned or Doug today for some reason!

Fellas: I've resisted dragging this matter into the discussion, but in light of the whole angry Doug Davis thread, I didn't want to be perceived as leaving in a huff, when my posts will stop over the next week or so. The past year has been a trying one, in terms of health issues for me, and my availability has been more than spotty at times. I just wanted to make it clear that, while my temper has probably gotten the better of me, especially this month, I hope it won't be construed as anything personal. While I shouldn't go into the gory details, (believe me, you don't want to hear about the inner workings of my body) most probably I'll finally be going under the knife next week, and while it's nothing as grave as cancer, it won't be fun, and I expect to make a full recovery. I wrestled with even posting this, because I didn't want it to be about me (I'd like to keep this confined to the "Issues" page, and not my usual and very public home in the "Major Leagues" forum), and more importantly, I didn't want any of you to stop debating me with all your energies and intelligence. So that's it. I'm not going away. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif I expect to be back soon, but again, it's not attributed to any particular instance. Peace Geno

"Yep, let's trade away our rotation depth and then wonder why we have 25% of our games being started by 6th, 7th, and 8th starters. Who would Rocco replace, Jenkins? I can't imagine that being much of an upgrade offensively at all, not to mention Baldelli is rarely healthy. " See, Sam? Now THIS is a first rate example of some stat-boy condescension for ya, from someone who, for years, referred to himself ironically as "The Thinking Man." Now let's have at him... Al, weren't YOU the one who said "This is the deepest Brewers' team ever, with solid reserves everywhere (except possibly 1B). "? And "we're 8 men deep in our rotation?" Besides, Rocco can replace Jenkins, blindfolded. Last year, in 162 less plate appearances, RB hit only 1 less HR, and drove in only 13 less runs. He stole more than twice as many bases (10 of 11!) beat GJ in OPS by 81 points, struck out 59 less times, hit .301, and wasn't as prone to weeks-long slumps, benchings, or brain-poots in RF, defensively. He's also 7 years younger and makes less than 1/3 of what Jenkins will take from us. Aren't you the one who preaches younger and cheaper? Migod! Finally, when Jenkins was getting hurt every other year in the early 00's, you were among those who adamantly refused to call him injury-prone, citing the freak, accidental nature of the injuries he kept sustaining. Shouldn't the same benefit of the doubt apply to Baldelli?

OK, fair enough. But if you guys feel confident enough to move Villanueva into the rotation, then what about Dave Boosh, plus a Sarfate, for Baldelli? I'd even consider Capuano in a Baldelli deal, but then Tampa's GOT to take Jenkins off our hands and play 100% of his salary. I'm not even sure of these offers either, but migod, there's a solid hitter out there who's probably available, on a team which needs young pitching, and we need him badly. I'm getting desperate! Are these 2 closer to reality, or further away? You be the judge!