GenoSeligPrieb

"To repharse a bit, "that's why I'm glad you are not the GM." Better? " Much! By the way, given what I've seen so far of your style, you don't strike me as one of those condescending stats guys. Back to baseball, to me, I could see a more balanced Love Connection here, if the trade was simplified to just this: Tampa gets: Carlos Villanueva, Greg Aquino Brewers get: Rocco Baldelli We'd have our # 3 place hitter, our outfield would be Hart, Baldelli, Hall, which could be among the best in the NL. Our rotation and infield would be undisturbed, and the batting order would be in the top 10 in the majors. If Tampa prefers a CV/Zach Jackson package, I'd still do it. I'd offer Zach Jack + Turnbow first, and they'd reject THAT, but that's what negotiations are for, right? Am I way off with this, or what?

"...Obviously, it would suck to deal some of our "great" prospects- WHO CARES!! I want to win NOW. With the squad we have now, we could use a bat like Jones or someone of his caliber. If we loose out on some good prospects--- oh well. WE HAVE MORE!!!!!" tank: While I really value having an ally around here on my side of the ideological aisle, if you assert that you "want to win now", you'll get clobbered by the Sabremetric/front office/optimistic crowd, so just beware. Hell, I like your style, but when you go all caps lock on our asses, you'll catch crap....just sayin'. But keep counter-punchin'! We need you here! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif "No offense, as we all feel like that sometimes, but that is why you are not qualified to make front office decisions. " Nor are you, Sam, nor me, nor is anyone else here. Please accept the fact that there IS room for "win now" GMs in the majors. They operate in Boston, New York, Houston, Anaheim and the north side of Chicago, and they logically can't mesh with the Brewers' perennially-lower payroll approach. You obviously don't share their views, but that doesn't make someone who wants to win now, less or UNqualified to make front office decisions.

My favorite part of the Post-Gazette article: "For most of this offseason, Littlefield has focused on LaRoche...He has done so to the point of telling agents who represent hitters through free agency that the Pirates will make no move until they know for certain if they can land LaRoche." Yeah, that's like me phoning Keira Knightley and telling her to be patient and not start dating anyone new, because my divorce may take a while.

Well, to me at least, there are exactly 30 #1 SPs and 30 # 2 SPs in the majors! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif And Sam, these ARE compelling, argument-changing numbers you threw out to us. Honest! (Except for the DIPS part) But to me, they show Boosh as a # 2 type, which makes me happy. But still, I want Alex Rios. We have 6 somewhat capable SPs, Toronto wants a capable SP (hell, they'll even take a Blanton for Rios!) and if the Blue Jays don't want Boosh back/we shouldn't send him back, then is there someone else who's just as Blanton-ish that we cvould swoop in and send them? I see Nix, Clark, Mench and Jenkins as extraneous parts to our outfield. None of these clowns should be batting 3rd for us as our full-time LF. (Gross is an affordable, solidly valuable PH and 4th OF fill-in, so to me at least, he should remain with us in that capacity.) But a guy like Rios can and should. He's young, a right bat, an above average outfielder, with a big arm, affordable and on the upswing in his career path. We should do what we can to get him.

"I guess I'm just a little less convinced with Rios than I am with Bush. I just have a hard time finding a weak spot in his game. Maybe that's homerism, I don't know, but I'd also take the starting pitcher over the outfielder almost everytime. " Fair enough, Sam, and it WAS polite to acknowledge your own possible homerism! Every winter, squirrels hoard acorns, and Doug hoards as many Plus Arms with High Celings as he can get. It comes down to need for me, I guess. I see a ton of pitchers we're stockpiling, a possibly available righty bat we need to bat 3rd, and I envision a Love Connection. I know it's not that simple, but we have 1, 2 or 3 Joe Blantons around, and hope DM can find a match with Toronto. I look at Bush, and here's what I see: With the Blue Jays in 2005, he wins 5 and loses 11 (not really important, I know, but it IS bad). He pitches to a 4.49 ERA (meh!). He turns in a solid 1.26 WHIP (encouraging), but he averages only 5.58 innings per start. *yawn* In '06 here, the WHIP stays low (1.14 - outstanding!). The record? With the Brewers run support, I don't expect much. But the ERA? It's nearly the same (4.41) and I would wish for less than the 26 HRs he surrendered. He's no longer an up-n-coming young prospect, at age 27, so to me, he's an OK # 3 starter, which is fine. But again, it comes back to need. We already have Sheets, Capuano, Soup Can, Vargas and perhaps Villanueva as starters, so we can afford to trade a rotation member for a guy who looks like he's beginning to "get it" at the major league level. Rios is only 25, has a strong arm, plays solid defense, and his numbers were much better as an offensive player than Bush's were as a pitcher...and right now, we need an offensive player more. Just my opinion...

"I think that Bush should be about as untouchable as anyone on this team right now. Because of the fact that his mainstream stats (ERA, W, etc) didn't match his awesome peripherals last year, I see no way Doug could get fair value for him. Bush will very likely be the Brewers' 2nd best starter when all is said and done next year, and I really don't want to give that up for a 26 year old who doesn't get on base too well, not to mention the fact that he didn't know how to slug until last year. Sure, he's young enough for that to have been because of added muscle/experience and stuff, but I don't think .500 is his natural slugging "ability," so he is due for a letdown next year, IMO. " I understand about the lack of fair value for Boosh in a trade. And I'm not singling you out specifically, M J Skelly...etc., but taking off the Brewer goggles for a second, wouldn't it be possible that one of OUR young players, like a Dave Boosh, can regress, as you predict Rios will? Too often, loyal Brewer fans such as yourself will predict improvement from every nugget we have, simply because they're a year older and more experienced, therefore they won't hit the wall this year. Hell, I fell into that trap myself when I expected more success from a Ben Hendricksen, from Nick Neugebauer...I nearly predicted a Hall Of Fame career from Cal Eldred! So I can be just as guilty of this as anyone here. But when a player from another team unexectedly improves, especially one whom we'd have to part with a Plus Arm With a High Ceiling to acquire, his advancements are marginalized and often dismissed as a fluke. Josh Barfield, Erik Bedard, Chris Duncan step up in their early careers, and to varying degrees, their capabilities are doubted/called into question as unsustainable, while Hardy, Braun, Hart, Gallardo, etc. are all projected/counted on to be stars. Last year, Boosh's peripherals WERE solid. But what if scouting reports notice a tip to his pitches, hitters start getting more used to him, or (very plausible, given our luck) he gets hurt? It's just as possible as Rios falling short of the pace he established in 2006, right? We already have a solid rotation, (we can pencil in Villanueva to improve in '07, http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) so we can spare one of our 8 starting pitchers, especially when we have a crater in the # 3 hole in the batting order, and he's an inexpensive young-ish outfielder, to boot.

"TSN reported, for what its worth, that the A's turned down an offer of Rios for Blanton. I'd have a hard time believing Blanton is worth more than Capuano, considering Blantons weight issues" Nice "bring" to the conversation, X. IF this report is on the money, then a 26-year-old Blanton, who makes every start, with a middling W/L record and an ERA in the mid-to-upper 4's is what Toronto would seek for Rios, then isn't Dave Bush that same guy? True, the Blue Jays already gave up once on Bush, but what if they parted with him reluctantly in the Overbay deal? I'd say do it immediately! And if they don't want Bush back, then can we substitute a Villanueva, and force them to take Mench, Jenkins or Clark for some salary relief. It helps to gain some perspective as to what Toronto would want for Rios, again, if this report can be fully trusted. We still have a gaping outfield hole. I still want Rios!

"I replied to the various comments in this thread on my blog:" Wow. In post # 1, screen view traffic is already being diverted away from BF.net to a blog. That's some chutzpah, newbie!

With that lineup, I could at least see one positive! We'd have the # 1 pick in the amateur draft...probably for a few years. I could see us being shut out perhaps 40 times, and finishing at 2003 Tigers territory if Sheets goes down yet again, and Peavy is circa 2006 vintage. Hell, nobody likes trading away young and unproven for established stars, but migod, even I wouldn't pull the trigger on either of those, my man. Sorry...

"Sabean said he would look to acquire another run-producer if he doesn't use the rest of his funds on pitching. The Giants have spoken to the Milwaukee Brewers about outfielder Geoff Jenkins, sources said." Well, if Sabean's looking for a run-producer, why would he consider Jenkins? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif Seriously, though, if they pick up even half his salary, I'd be thrilled with a Kevin Correia or a Brad Hennessey. If they take his entire salary? I'd even take Vinny Chulk!

"I'm convinced that Rotoworld gets at least one quarter to one half of their Brewers information from Brewerfan.net" - AJ Love .. "rotoworld knows us pretty well.. i think doug melvins constant mentioning of "internet rumors" is directly aimed at - pogokat Bwahahaha! This gives me an idea. In this age of blogs being mistaken as news, of rampant internet rumors, why not start a few wishful ones of my own? I figure, if Nick Neugebauer, Jim Powell, or even Dana Eveland's father visit here, and see the rumors we post, and if they're even remotely plausible (at least one rumor would have to involve the Braves), maybe they'll gain traction, and become reported as "unconfirmed reports." From there, they can make their way to the media, and to ESPN! And if I involve Boston or one of the New York teams in my rumors, then Peter Gammons can quote unnamed sources as "not denying" them! From there, Doug Melvin can get wind of them, scratch his mustache, and say, "Hey! That may work!" And presto!, we create a deal from nothing, and the Brewers win the 2007 NL Central! I'll even make 'em neat and handy, and already quotable, so here goes nothin': "...rumors have it that Milwaukee's contingent at the DisneyWorld Swan and Dolphin Resort is ready to put the finishing touches on a multi-player swap involving veteran outfielder Geoff Jenkins, along with pitchers Dennis Sarfate and Manny Parra, whom scouts describe as having a plus arm with a high ceiling, to the Toronto Blue Jays for All-Star center fielder Vernon Wells. Wells will immediately sign a multi-year extension to happily finish his career in Milwaukee." "...unnamed sources speculate that a 3-team deal could be completed by the end of the week between the Brewers, Phillies and the Red Sox. GM Doug Melvin could not be reached to confirm, but it is believed that Milwaukee would send outfielders Kevin Mench and Tony Gwynn, Jr., along with closer Derrick Turnbow to Boston, who would then send pitcher Craig Hansen and Mench to Philadelphia, with a clearly relieved outfielder Pat Burrell moving on to Milwaukee." "...and finally, in a busy, whirlwind week of activity, Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin is brewing up a deal which would send outfielder Brady Clark and minor league third baseman Vinny Rottino to Atlanta for reliever Oscar Villarreal and a player to be named later." That should do it! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif Any other "fresh" rumors out there?

OK, in retrospect, after taking a deeper look at Cole hamels, you guys are probably right that Philly never gives him to us for those 2 rummies. That said, I want a #4 or #5 pitcher who's NOT 37-ish and broken down, expensive AND most importantly, going to leave as a free agent a few months later. Hamels is not that guy, which I accept. But who is?

IF....Big IF, the deal is Turnbow and Mench for Lieber, then I'm not impressed. Sure, I love getting rid of these 2. They make too much for the *ahem* production they gave back. But if we're going to deal 2 players who have drawn interest from the Dodgers and Red Sox, then why give Philadelphia salary relief for a 50-year-old fart who has a significant injury history? I fear DM is holding out for the inevitable Plus Arm With a High Ceiling on this one....which bites. If we give up Mench and Turnbow, I want a Cole Hamels ...or better yet, recalibrate the deal so we add a lesser nugget, and somehow get Burrell!

TooLive: While I commend you on the well-researched post, remember, I'm a guy who's less impressed when the guys we pay to smack the bejeezus out of the ball with men on base, settle for a walk instead. I understand your point, believe me. An increase in the walk rate IS indeed a harbinger of a more disciplined, maturing hitter. But I just want to mix in a finished product, for once, with all these youngsters doing on-the-job training. I fear/suspect Doug was authorized to spend $10-15 million extra on the roster, and he's spreading it out on multiple has-been's, instead of just absorbing the salary or 1 or even 2 higher-quality players instead. You have every right to take the conservative route (hell, you're in the vast majority among Brewer fans) with regard to pinning your hopes on the development of our nuggets. But when Carlos Lee was salary-dumped, it left a bazooka hole in our offense. The money intended for him is still mostly available (and moreso if/when hacks like Mench, Clark and a few others leave town). So if I'm Mark Attanasio, ready to spend to put us back on the map, and I ask Doug Melvin where that $15,000,000 went, I'd be very unhappy if DM says it's already spent on Counsell, Graffanino, Shouse, a poorly-aging Jon Lieber and some bustout like Rodrigo Lopez.

"That one premuim player would not give us solid depth. " Yeah, but how do you think we're better off? With that $16.5 million distributed to 17 players, or given to a slugger who deserves that much, alone. Or how about a Jose Guillen at $5.5 million (great signing by the Mariners), along with an $11,000,000 starting pitcher? I hate all this continual quantity over quality. The only way I'm placated is if DM packages about 3-4 of these rummies like Clark, Miller, Jenkins, Turnbow, Counsell, Graffanino, for a serious upgrade in our 3-6 hitters, and/or our rotation.

"...it turns out most GM's are smart and they won't give up a quality player for multiple average players. " That is, unless he's a Brewer GM! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

"Bill Hall, Geoff Jenkins, Damien Miller for Matt Holiday" Before giving up our top player, one who's really versatile, young-ish, fast and inexpensive, I'd like to see if Matt can hit outside Coors. Hall alone > Holliday. In fact, if we gave Colorado Hall and added, let's say, Zach Jackson, we could get Holliday AND Tulowitzki. "Another player I would move Hall for is Jake Peavy" Not me! Hall's value is at its apex, about now, while Peavy's is at its lowest. If Hall goes to SD, we get Peavy AND a decent slugger, although the Padres don't really look like they have even 1 to spare. If I deal Hall, it's to get a major OF bat back, because without him, our offense, which is already bad, falls to Royals territory. "Hall will be the guy traded this winter. I have no doubt. So we trade our best player, again?" Because the Brewers NEVER trade away their best slugger, right? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

This seems somewhat plausible. Boston becomes set at SS, Closer and replaces Trot in RF (somewhat). Sure, they lose Manny, but with all the rumors about him wanting to leave, their leverage is diminished. Anaheim loses 2 major commodities in Ervin and K-Rod, and Rivera is coming along nicely, so they don't make out too well here, but then again I'm sure people said that about the Cirillo / Haynes / Blanco..etc. deal about Milwaukee, right? But the Angels DO get Manny and a 3B upgrade in Crede. And who knows? Maybe Zach pans out for them, replacing Ervin (again, somewhat). The White Sox keep making noise that they won't extend Crede ("in this environment" - says Kenny Williams), so HIS trade value suffers a bit by this statement. I can't see them getting too excited about Lowell, and while Figgins is solid, they just re-upped with Podsednik, so their leadoff slot seems occupied. The White Sox seem to be gaining the least value in this deal....which I like! The Brewers would be solidifying LF and CF and would be gaining a potential staff ace. Win, win, win. If Rivera hits like Overbay, circa 2004, we can be a contender. Sure, Hall is terrific and versatile, but after this deal, we'd already have cemented the 3 positions he plays best, so we could spare him in this scenario. I dunno, it just seems too good to be true for us. I suspect we'd have to add in a Gallardo over Zach to pull this off, and even then... That said, I love the work you put in on this one, fleehaw. Keep 'em comin'. On a wintry day with 10-12 inches of snow expected here in Chicago, this potential trade brightened my day, even if it didn't / can't happen.

"Go after Bonds first. He'll be just as good at a lower cost with no need to trade anything. " First of all, Bonds will NOT be just as good as Manny Ramirez. In the same number of games played, Manny had 9 more HRs, 25 more RBIs, hit 51 points higher, and had a better OPS than Bonds by 59 points. In 2005, Bonds only was able to play 14 games. Secondly, at this stage of his career, with his steroids-ravaged joints and knees, Bonds may have to be rested 40, 50, 60 games or more. And even if he does play, he may still be facing a suspension or jail time, if crossing my fingers helps. Third, who says Bonds will cost less? in 2006, Bonds got $20,000,000, while Manny got $18.27 million. Besides, in a year where he's looking to cash in as a free agent to hit HR # 756 in a new team's uniform, he won't settle for less, much less from Milwaukee. And as for the team we cheer for, I'd rather trade for Ramirez than sign a criminal like Bonds. But realistically, Doug can't even enter negotiations about either of these guys, so it's a moot discussion.

"As for Carlos... the better he does, the more the Crew gets at the deadline. " Thanks for that, Harold. You don't sound too crazy about winning ballgames, do you? Realistically, if we had Nelson Cruz out there in LF instead of Lee, we'd be under .500 already. I can't wait until we trade Prince next year, so we can something at the deadline for him!

2006 Milwaukee Brewer Pre-season predictions Team Record 2006 Record: 87-75 2006 Predicted Finish within the NL Central: Second 2006 Playoff Predictions: Third in NL Wild Card Offense- Individual Team Leaders with 502 PA Batting Average: Jenkins .290 OBP: Koskie .376 SLG: Fielder .515 OPS: Jenkins .880 BB: Weeks 77 HR: Lee 40 RBI: Lee 117 K: Fielder 138 SB: Weeks 25 Pitching- Individual Team Leaders Wins: Davis 15 Losses: Bush 14 Saves: Turnbow 41 WHIP: Sheets 1.10 IP: Davis 222 K: Davis 205 BB: Capuano 95 ERA (among starters): Sheets 3.15 ERA (among relievers): Turnbow 2.27 Appearances: Kolb 58 Team Awards Offensive MVP: Lee Team Cy Young: Davis Most Valuable New Addition: Koskie Misc First player not on opening day roster recalled from Minors: Rick Helling First player on 25 man roster removed (via waivers, trade or optioned): David Bush First Player on the DL: Geoff Jenkins League Awards AL MVP: Manny Ramirez, Bsn NL MVP: Carlos Delgado, NYM AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Twins NL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez, NYM Post Season AL Champs: Anaheim Angels NL Champs: NY Mets WS Champs: Anaheim Angels Of course, I could be wrong...what do I know?

"Joe Sheehan's doing a chat on Baseball Prospectus in roughly a half hour. Link: baseballprospectus.com/ch...chatId=149 I know he's not your cup of tea (nor mine), but at least it's something. " brett: I'm among those afflicted with the disease called "Aggressive Internet Cop Syndrome" (AICS), and can't access too many baseball websites here at work. Similar to the situation with prescription drugs, I do get decent stuff from Canada, as the Toronto Globe and Mail is pretty good, but other than that, nada. Can someone excerpt for those of us suffering from AICS? Won't you give from the heart? Thanks...

Maybe I'm just in a nasty mood because of all the "We're #1...how's YOUR team?" rhetoric around here this morning, but I'm really bored with this thread. Russ, end and Casey aren't wrong, and neither am I, or backup, or anyone else, OK? We just don't agree. Isn't today the day all free agents can begin to declare themselves? What are the dates for the Brewers Winter Caravan? Is Mark, Doug or Ned, Drew or Tom, hell, even Bill Michaels (!) doing another Q&A on the web somewhere? Isn't there anything else fresh to discuss besides this subject? Anyone? Please! Help!

"Other Lee faults: BA OBP VORP Defense RBI/baserunner Lee supporters are the ones who dismiss all stats to focus on RBIs and to a lesser extent HRs. There is nothing out there that projects well for Lee going forward." OK, there's NOTHING that projects well for Carlos, going forward. Wow. Not his power, his health...ah forget it. In the interest of fairness, end, I won't dismiss all stats for Carlos Lee, but I do retain the right to not embrace all of them you look for: BA - Also very important, no question. And I'll spot you batting average THIS year, but you aren't considering that this was his first year in a new league after 5+ in the AL. Sure, I wish his BA would be higher, too. But we've already heard from 1992Casey, that even if his BA were .290, he'd still catch crap from the OPS guys, so... OBP - If he keeps driving in runs, and that average goes right back to his usual .289 pre-Brewer days, I'm not concerned if he draws more walks, unless they change his responsibilities to leading off or batting 2nd. VORP - Sorry, no. Defense - I'm not saying he's even good, but someone's got to play LF, and you CAN hide a big slugger with questionable D in left, so the impact of his suspect glove is somewhat mitigated. Again, I wish he were a better defensive player, but given his offensive contributions, the trade-off is worth it. Ask any GM if they'd take him, even with his D, and you know the answer. RBI/baseruner - Isn't he pretty good at this? I thought the argument was that Geoff Jenkins was right there with him in 2005, which I already admitted had altered my view on them. But Carlos is not a negative in this department. Why not look at his RISP? As I wrote before, since there are so many stats in baseball, if you dig long enough, you can find reasons to argue a case that Alex Rodriguez and Johan Santana aren't worth keeping. Carlos Lee is primarily paid to hit homers, drive in runs and stay healthy, which he does, and that was good enough for Doug Melvin, who's no dope.

Darn it! I was hoping this thread would end, but when I read this, my fingers began typing by themselves... "If Lee goes .290/35/130 next year and still puts up an .811 OPS, I'll be unimpressed. Right now, he gets a pass because even at that relatively low number, he helped drastically improve this year's team. If he goes .290/35/130 with an .850 OPS, he's still not worth a huge lengthy extension. If he goes .290/35/130 with a .900 OPS, we'd still have to consider..." If a guy puts up a stat line like that, he's absolutely worth keeping. Not at $15 million a year (even though, based on that kind of eye-popping stat line, he'd get it on the free agent market), because we can't afford it. To your credit, you did admit "he helped drastically improve this year's team", which I commend you for. But it seems that just because ONE stat, his OPS, may not be to your liking, you'd be ready to jettison him, which, no offense, doesn't work for me. OK, 1992, how about this?: Carlos Lee next year goes .260/25/85 but his OPS is .960? Let's say, when RBI opportunities present themselves, he instead stands there and takes a walk a lot more often, and his OBP rises over the .400 mark. He also hits a few more triples and doubles, but only plays 120 games, so his RBIs and HR totals drop, but that OPS is high. Would you now consider him "keep-able?" .290-35-130 is great, by probably everyone else's standards, except those who consider OPS the be-all and end-all. It's ONE stat, and while it's a very important one, it shouldn't take precedence over those other 3 also-very-important ones, like BA, HRs and RBIs.