EdgarDiazRocks

Did you turn it on? Well THAT smacks of effort. Cool I get that option 'tho, I dont need no button distrctin' from Kiki's handsome mug in any case! http://home.earthlink.net/~cmfarrar/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/untitled-3.jpg

I still haven't got my little gold star yet 'tho. Funny, my card got charged

I also had tried and faild SEVERAL times to use my Debit Card and/or PayPal. I'm glad it wasn't just me. It appears that the 14th time was the charm. Yay.

EDR, how close are you to Everett? Everett is about an hour north (depending like always on traffic). I usually get up ther once or twice to catsh an Aquasox game, but that's short season Northwest League so it starts long after the high school season is over. With a new work schedule I do plan on seeing a lot more UW games this season.

Hey Patrick, U of Washington's only football signee of note was the kid who declered when he was a sophomore anyway, QB Jake Locker. He's a huge kid [6'3", 211] , but now there is some worry that they will lose him to baseball a la Matt Tuiasosopo. Is there any national buzz about him? He seems too big to be anything but a power pitcher, but I have no clue about him as a baseball player. of course they wouldn't have lost Tuiasosopo if the M's hadn't wanted the PR and were willing to spend the $2.5 million involved.

Brewers won Will Carroll's Dick Martin Award for best medical staff . . . http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/4653_01.jpg No comment on Ned's tie.

Allright this is as close as I'm ever going to get to contributing to this thread at my age, so I did half a "Car Bomb" tonight after several Mac & Jacks and a few Snoqualmie Snow Caps and spent the rest of the evening breaking up fights, near sexual assaults and apologizing for members of the party's behavior. Why is this fun again?

Hey Patrick! Your Roy Clark Interview is getting a litttle love over at SOSH since it mentions current Red Sox GM candidiate Dayton Moore . .

Any former Anchorage Glacier Pilot gets a bye on any alledged drug use . . . . In!! http://www.glacierpilots.com/images/logo.pilots.GIF

He's right. I didn't know that. Nice work Corey.

Surprised to see Dallas Buck's name not there. East Coast bias? Also interesting to note how they missed the boat, so to speak, on Ian Stewart and Daric Barton in 2003.

Hot link action . . . milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com...p&c_id=mil

I enjoy Boyd Nation's work, because it's obvious he does his homework and comes up with some interesting results. I would say I appreciate his work, not necessarily enjoy it. His research is awesome and yet there's a disconnect there. For example last year his stats led me to note Chase Headley's fantastic year, yet that just made me want to learn MORE about Headley, not to stop and draw my conclusions from the numbers of one college season alone in a vacuum. I'm sure that is not what he's actually advocating, and that teams should simply use these things tp POINT to the prospects and use them in figuring out the route of player development, but again the tone of the message really takes away from the content. And comments like "Baseball America has been the source of one of the great evils of our time -- the prospect list. " detract from any intended persuasion. Hmmm . . .Rwanda Genocide or the BA Top 100? But if indeed if all teams adopted this methodology then how would teams find the Latin talent?

Hey Patrick. I was wondering if you would comment on this article. I feel that this is one of those examples of somebody being very shortsighted. That performance evaluation is the MOST important tool in drafting is certainly limiting your information. I would think that if any MLB team has their player development affected by BA then that would be surprising. I think the lists are for the fans, not a guide for minor league development. Thoughts?

I know you are trying to say that Ichiro is worth more to a team because the fans love him and you are probably right. While that type of worth may show up on an accountant's spreadsheet, SABR fella's are concentrated on a player's worth in winning games. In a way, that's like me saying that since I can't do OXS without putting pen to paper, I can't see it's value. Everything about the sport is derived so that the owners make money. Everything. Winning and fielding winning teams is a huge, monsterous part of that but not the only, "end all" part. For example, the Cubs, who are just rolling in cash with no effort whatsoever realized in 2003 with 80 share TV ratings on playoff games, finally realized that they could be making a whole lot "more" money by winning. Sadly they had no plan on making that happen, so they have regressed but at least you can see the team has that goal now. Conversly the Royals, who have as loyal and hardcore fanbase as any team, have pissed it all away by driving the team into the ground with mis-management. If they have a goal other than staying out of bankruptcy, I can't see it. On another topic . . . My problem with SABR has always been it's arrogance. Using Brian's example of Smoking, the SABR argument would go like this. ______________ SABR:8-10 people die from smoking. Me: what do the other 2 people die from? SABR: It doesn't matter stupid! 8-10 people die from smoking! Me: I'm just curious. What outside factors led to their deaths? SABR: Listen MORON! Numbers don't LIE. YOU ARE GOING TO DIE FROM SMOKING, GET IT? YOU ARE JUST PATHETIC AND CLUELESS!! Me: I don't smoke. ________________ It's kind of like the whole "traditional wisdom" vs bloggers thing. Right now the "traditional wisdom" is coming out the stats community in an endless stream and the "fringe" oppinons are coming out of moron Talk Radio hosts and Joe Morgan. Yet all we hear is how resistant baseball is to these ideas. Believe me, If Howard Lincoln could milk a few more nickles from his paying customers by using statistical analysis then the M's would hire Mat Olkin right away. Oh wait they already did? Now if they would only listen to him.

Maybe they can sign Ben Grieve under the condition that he learn to juggle while walking to 1st base in the offseason. Juggling is entertaining? Who knew? These guys must be huge with the ladies. http://www.delafont.com/Jugglers/Juggler_Images/fxbrothers-96.jpg I like to see guys not swing, if the pitches aren't strikes. I know you like Ichiro and all, but he's a rare breed, and it sure would help him to take a walk this year since hit luck seems to have taken a downturn. If nothing else, he's a posterboy for the fluctuation of batting average in comparison to walk rate. I understand the point entirely. I just like to see guys at the top of the order get on base and guys in the middle of the order drive them home. It's a very traditionalist stance, but as I have stated before the argument that "winning is the only thing that get's fans in the seats" doesn't hold water. I like watching different guys do different things. Jeff Francoeur is also a posterboy. One for riding an exciting player out for all he's worth to higher ticket sales. Can fans rally their kids up by saying lets all go watch Kevin Youkalis not take the bat off his shoulder? And in my Roto league I still traded him for Jeremy Hermida because of the no walk thing. And none of this answers my "why are pitchers held to a different standard" question.

Not to nitpick, as I agree with you on the all-encompassing stats for the most part, but I don't think anyone said Swisher would be "great", maybe "good", but not great. When I see him, I see Brad Wilkerson as a switch hitter, and that's a good player. A much better one than Bill Hall anyway. I picked swisher because as of right now, in 2005, he and Hall are nearly identical statistically. It's scary. Yet somehow because of Swisher's higer walks (14 as of yesterday) against Hall higher Hit total (18 as of yesterday) Nick is determined to be the better prospect. The two guys are 11 months apart in age so I'm kinda at a loss at why one is regarded so much higher than the other. Hall's plate discipline improves every season, Swisher's BA for the most part is unchanged. What leads to the optomism on him and not Hall? Swisher's minor league numbers that Hall didn't get to have at that age because Taylor rushed him to the bigs? That said, everything a player does in offense is aimed at one goal; scoring runs for the team. You see, we differ in opinon there too. I think at least 1/3 of a player job at the plate is to entertain the fans. And people don't pay $20 to watch somebody NOT swing. No matter how much that may or may not help a team win. How many bases loaded walks to win a game do you think are in people's top 10 baseball memories?

Alright. I have been letting this one simmer and stew for a bit before I jumped in. Since this is an amicable discussion (surprise, surprise), I am going to kick in my #1 pet peeve with stats and SABRites. The everybody fits into the same hole mentality. It seems to me that by using tools like VORP, WS, WARP and even OXS by position you are measuring every single player against the same type and not allowing them to be individuals with different games. And of course by every single player we mean only hitters, which is another problem I have. Ichiro doesn?t walk, he doesn?t get on base enough. Branyan strikes out too much. Bill Hall isn?t patient enough and a bust but Nick Swisher is going to be a ?great player?. Compared to who I ask? The mythical ?replacement player?? The ?league average? for their position? The least paid player that produces ?equivalent? numbers? Poppycock. Players have different games. They do different things. Boiling every thing they do down to one number dehumanizes everything about them, yet it is where stats boys go every single time to prove their point. Why therefore is not pitching the same? Jamie Moyer?s Baseball Reference page lists the player most similar (before 2005) to him this way . . . 1 Frank Viola (921) 2 Mike Flanagan (912) 3 John Burkett (909) 4 David Wells (903) 5 Kenny Rogers (902) Now nobody would ever get any of those pitchers confused with Moyer having ?watched? them, yet statistically they are ?similar?, yet we take the differences in skills into consideration when we interpret the numbers. Why aren?t hitters judged the same way? Bill Hall?s (before 2005) peers? 1 Omar Infante (964) 2 Brent Butler (959) 3 Jay Canizaro (957) 4 Marco Scutaro (956) 5 Buddy Blattner (956) Therefore he must suck, because he?s just like Omar Infante. And this year, he?s above ?league average? for a shortstop, but as a 3B? Ohh, he still sucks. It always kinda bugs me when hitters numbers are simply tallied up into one easy to digest ?end all? figure (take your pick) and similar players are simply lumped together in ways that no one would ever do with a pitcher. Tell me you don?t look at minor league numbers differently. That when you see a hitter dominating a league, you may look up his age and simply be happy with that, but with a pitcher you have to know his age, what his velocity is, what pitches and movement he has along with control and ?projectability.? We accept that pitching is a lot harder to define, yet we fervently believe that hitting is simply everything that ends up in the boxscore. Why? 24 year-old JDLR could be a stud, because we have seen him pitch. His numbers don?t back it up, but knowing his velocity and the fact that he could ?find it? gives us a sense of hope. And for Christ?s sake, he?s left-handed! Yet with a 25 year-old Bill Hall, ?He is what he is.? Numbers don?t lie. Despite the fact that he continually improves at the plate. Why the double standard? Simply because as of now Hall?s numbers are considerably lower than what we think they should be? That they compare unfavorably to great players or a made up one that changes at every position he plays at? But in the end, what I?m trying to get at here is Stats, for me anyway, are tools to greater appreciate what sets a player apart from his peers, what makes their individuality greater rather than what players they are ?better? , ?worse? or "equal" to. I could get lost for days in Tony Gwynn?s Retrosheet page. Diving into the splits and pitcher vs batter numbers, amazed at what he did. I don?t care that Ted Williams was worth more ?Win Shares? nor am I going to spend any time trying to figure out who was more valuable, Gwynn, Rod Carew or Wade Boggs. They are totally different players with different skillsets, and that?s why I love baseball and the religion of stats. Because I can remember each of those players and recall how different they were and then go look up the numbers and find the intricacies in those differences.

He should get in after Jim Kaat. That said, the "Circle Me Burt" bit is as good as anything baseball has to offer. Should be in for that alone. Oh yeah, he pitched a little too didn't he?

No studies have really found any evidence of protection having a statistical effect on a player large enough to be detected. In the big picture maybe yes, maybe no. But in the individual "percieved season", maybe yes. Again, looking at only one example, Dale Murphy in 1987 . . . AVG/OBP/SLG None on .322 /.412 /.629 307AB 46 BB RISP .247/.457/.545 154AB 58 BB (29 IBB!) Obviously the opposition was pitching around Murphy with men on base and it affected his numbers both up (obp) and down (slg and avg) Now was the tactic succesful? it's hard to tell beacause the Braves pitching was so bad that it didn't matter anyway, but certainly Murphy's HOF chances were dented by years of this abuse that he wouldn't have recieved if he were in a more balanced lineup. In his case alone I must say that indeed protection mattered because it is keeping him out of Cooperstown

Todd Helton has actually hit above his career average for July and August, and is well on his way to doing the same in September. I simply don't believe that lack of "protection" resulted in Helton losing 200+ points on his OPS earlier this year. Well we disagree here. I watched Helton closely since he was one of the cog's on my Roto team and before his injury he was frustrated at the bad pitches he was seeing and probably the steriod allegation from spring training and his strikeout numbers from May and June are elevated much above career norms. As he flailed at pitches out of the zone Both once he got hurt and Preston Wilson left the team and he had some time out of the lineup to re-tool (read re-hab) he reverted to norms. Ryan Sheely's stick might have had something to do with it too. Looking at another hittter who was percieved to have been pitched around, Dale Murphy, especially the statisticaly freaky 1987 season, where Murphy was pitched around at a Bonds like clip shows no relation to Helton's 2005, so maybe I'm wrong, but those two moths stand out to me as Helton's problem, along with a historically bad Lefty/Righty split. LHP has OWNED him this year. Interesting . . . .. EDIT: The Dodgers example obviously goes against the grain of many of the SABR testiments, but you don't disprove something by finding an example where it doesn't work (not with probabilistic statistics atleast). I glossed over this the first time . . . but that's odd I thought finding an example of when something doesn't work DOES disprove a statement (in scientific theory at least.)http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif We don't deal in a world of absolutes.

Also, I did this last year, same situations, same amount of runs, but opposite RISP numbers. It's a meaningless statistic. I had tried to show, apparently unsuccessfully, In my '88 Dodgers thread that RISP wasn't meaningless. That in certain examples it led to things like this . . . http://images.art.com/images/products/large/10103000/10103671.jpg Now whether that team, that season was a "fluke" or not is certainly debateable, but as I heard from a Dallas Cowboy who won a Suberbowl on a bad call once, "Hey the ring still fits and the checks are all in the bank" Also I would like to point out that the "98% accurate" debate is only applicable when relying on analysis of what a player/team "has" done not as a predictive tool for what a player "will" do. PECOTA's inner workings are guarded like an Israeli ambassador in Egypt for a reason (I guess) and that is that it is right slightly more than it is wrong. But still when this year it predicted more of the same for Todd Helton it failed to see the very human response that opposing manager would have when they realized that NOBODY was hitting behind him. Turns out you didn't need a Cray crunching numbers all day to figure that one out.

This isn't meant to bash on him, or his case for the Hall, as I really don't care much about this stuff, but didn't he get the nickname "Rock" because of his liking of "rock cocaine"? I was fairly sure that it was for ability to fill out the uni. "Braggs-esque." http://i20.ebayimg.com/02/i/04/c8/67/65_1.JPGhttp://www.canadianbaseballnews.com/Tim%20Raines/trdonruss90fr216.jpg

It sounds similar to the injury from earlier in the year. Lets wait for an MRI before we start dancing. That did not look good.

Honestly, he was throwing normally and then just grimaced and started cussing up a storm. The trainer sprinted out at full speed and they started stretching him out. There was obviously something seriously wrong. It looked like the shoulder because when he tried to lift his arm above his head it just wasn't possible. They are showing a swing in the bottom of the inning where he grimaced but that appeared to be his back (again) I don't know whether that leads to hoope, that it just might be his normal back problems