Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat

No room? Julian Tavarez. I admit, that doesn't solve the Riske / Gagne crunch. My point was that there isn't anything wrong with Stetter, and there probably never was.

it may be a good opportunity to see if he'll ever be an MLB player vs AAAA. A couple notes here. First, I would think he'd have to prove that he was a legitimate AAA hitter before you could even begin to think about him as a "AAAA" player. Second, what could he do in a couple of weeks of occasional PT that would sway you one way or the other on this question? Even if he started every game until Weeks came back (assuming he comes back the first day he's eligible), you'd be looking at maybe 50 PA. Unless he goes 0-50 with 50 Ks or 50-50 with 50 HR, that's too small a sample to be throwing around career-killing terminology. And this isn't directed to the above post specifically, but can I just say how much I despise the "AAAA" concept? It has about as much claim to an actual referrant as the phrase "master race". In other words, there is no such thing as a "AAAA" player. If you are too good for AAA, you are good enough to keep some job at the major league level, at least as a reserve or mop-up relief guy. What does exist, tragically, is a huge number of guys unfairly branded "AAAA" because of some lousy luck in a too-small sample of data that is ludicrously being weighed more heavily than years and years of minor league data because of a prejudice that is at least twice as silly as it is old.

He has made 8 appearances since going down and he's only issued a walk in 2 of those. Unfortunately both of those were 2 walk outings. But there's no need to paint this like it's Steve Blass disease or anything. He's being used more like a LOOGY now it seems (judging by the length of his outings), but by comparison, he's struck somebody out in 7 of those 8 appearances. In short, he's fine. He should be back now. He probably never should have been sent down in the first place.

I really think it would be a healthy thing for this board if Yost-defenders and Yost-bashers stopped thinking of the opposite camp as a monolithic entity. Just because I want Ned fired, doesn't mean that all of my opinions are the same as everyone else who wants him fired. I don't even agree with all the other stat geeks all the time. There were complaints about Dillon starting at 2B from a couple of people who I by and large tend to agree with most of the time, and I didn't have a problem with that Yost decision. It's not his ideal position, but I think his bat more than justifies giving him the start instead of Counsell, whatever the defensive dropoff. The majority of the board now wants Ned fired. We all have different ideas about how a baseball team should be managed. The net effect of this is that it seems to a Yost-defender that every move Yost makes will be criticized, whichever way he decides. You can expect a poster to remain consistent in his/her critiques, but you cannot expect me to ensure that all of my opinions are consistent with everyone else's opinions who wants Ned fired.

I, for one, will have no complaints about the Torres move, however it turns out. Yost went to the team's best reliever (there's little doubt about Torres's status as the team's best reliever) in an extremely high leverage spot even though it wasn't his defined LaRussian role in the bullpen. It was (by far) the best possible thing he could have done.

Quintanilla, lifetime OPS+ = 38. Manny Parra, lifetime OPS+ = 40. OPS+ is not a position adjusted stat.

I'm stunned and mystified that Yost is going to his designated closer (who can pitch multiple innings) earlier than the 9th. I guess that when the "what have you done for me lately?" vector points in the same direction as the "gut" vector, that must be enough to overwhelm the stubbornness. I thought it was a dead certainty that Mota would be in here, because he's the "8th inning guy".

They found the only guy in the house with worse looking sunglasses than Russell Branyan's.

The broadcasters doing their level best to explain that Carlos Villanueva is a LOOGY too. Unfortunately that's more fluke than fact -- he had a very normal platoon differential before this season. I'm not really sure why Ned stuck with Villy there -- most likely some combination of only looking at this year's splits (and thinking that makes you a "numbers guy"), Shouse burning him the last time he went to him in a big spot ("what have you done for me lately? - Villy has been great the last 3 times I brought him in), and whatever his "gut" is telling him. It worked, but that doesn't mean it wasn't stupid.

Let Villy face Quintanilla (not a threat) and the PH. If he gets both of them, no harm in letting him pitch to Podsednik. Warm Shouse in case you wind up with a high leverage situation and Seth Smith or Todd Helton up.

I've been to Denver. I've been to Boulder. Rock's hinting around about adult beverages affecting you more at altitude is technically true, but if you can't handle the incredibly weak drinks they pour you in Colorodo, you've absolutely no business drinking in Wisconsin.

Dillon stole as many as 15 bases in one season in the minors, and has been an excellent % base stealer since coming back from the back injury. He's not fast but it's pretty obvious he knows when he can make it and when he can't.

And ultimately, this thing is a much larger problem than just our manager. "7th inning guy" and "8th inning guy" are now concepts that have currency for just about all baseball people, and the MSM certainly is on board. It is a mental illness sweeping like the plague through all of baseball. I do agree with the sentiment that, even absent any other justification, the "save situation" quote alone is enough to warrant a firing. My problem is that whoever they replace Yost with will almost certainly behave the same way, even if he's smart enough not to talk about what he might have done differently it had been a 4 run lead. Certainly the interim guy would be the same. The only way you avoid naming a permanent replacement that handles his bullpen just about exactly the same way is by making your first interview question this: DM: (shows the candidate Yost's quote) Ash: "We fired our previous manager because of this statement. Why do you think we fired him?" DM: "Answer carefully, if we don't like your answer this interview is over." Try as I might, I just can't envision this scene. For those curious, the difference in win probability between a 3 and a 4 run lead in the bottom of the 8th inning is minuscule. The trailing team will come back from 3 runs down 7.4% of the time vs. 4.5% of the time when down 4 runs. Ned's insipid "save situation" crap is basically the same as when a rookie hold 'em player calls a big raise with Jack - Deuce, and when you try to explain to him that that wasn't so smart, his objection is "but they were suited!" Ned has suppposedly read The Book, so it's not like he shouldn't be aware of this. Actually, that makes the rookie hold 'em player analogy invalid. Ned's like a guy who has read both Super Systems books, but somehow still plays Jack - Deuce everty time, just so long as his cards are suited.

The only thing I'll say (and many of you probably know how much I'd like Ned gone) is that it is a very good bet that whoever they replaced him with would be just as stupid about bullpen roles. 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, closer -- it's an irresistably rising tide of idiocy.

Shine's off Mota. It won't ever be back. It is inconceivably, mind-shatteringly irritating that it isn't enough for these idiots to annoint a "designated closer", only to be used in sacred save situations, now I've got to put up with the increasing recognizability of the job description "8th inning guy".

If you do go to Paul Bunyon's, your best bet is to go for breakfast. I've been somewhat less impressed with the lunch/dinner fare. But the breakfast is the best all-you-can-eat meal I've ever had in my life. From the pancakes to the greasy scrambled eggs to the buttermilk cake donuts, if you don't wind up stuffing yourself so silly you don't fully recover until the next day, yours is a more resolute spirit than mine.

It's totally fine to say Branyan has been incredibly hot. It's impossible to say whether he will remain hot in the future. So, past tense = go for it. Future tense = fool's errand. But what you want to use is present tense. Present tense = ...hmm.............?????!!!!!?????? I honestly don't know that there's a correct interpretation one way or the other on that. We might need to bone up on some Heidegger to help us out with this question. "Being and Time" might be a good place to start.

That is pretty funny. Russ started a very interesting, lively thread here. Law of unintended consequences hard at work.

One more note, watching Stephen Drew and even Max Scherzer of the D-Backs this most recent Brewers series it reminded me how hit and miss Scott Boras clients can be given the amount of money it takes to get them in the fold. Eh, I dunno. The total value of both of their contracts was somewhere in the neighborhood of $11 mil. If you factor in the slot money they would've had to pay whoever else they might've drafted, you're looking at a total extra expense less than the Brewers atrocious 1 year gamble on Eric Gagne. I think the really smart organizations recognize that gambling on a potential 6 cost-controlled years with the very best draft prospects is a much better value than the immediate gratification free agent signings of veterans of dubious quality. I also don't know if you've picked the two best ponies to make this case. Drew has been disappointing, but far from terrible. If you factor in contract and everything else, I'd take Scherzer over anyone in the Brewers org other than Gallardo. There have got to be total bust Boras advisees that slid down in the draft and got huge contracts. I can't think of any offhand, but... Anyway, it's all pretty much a moot point. This is all basically about whether your team takes its marching orders from the commish's office like good little soldiers. We're one of the teams that does, and probably always will. I think that's unfortunate, but there's nothing any of us can do about it. I'm just really glad Jack Z. has been able to do so well picking with signability as a handicap every year. Just look at the Pirates for if you want to see exactly how badly that plan can go.

Hmm...you're probably right. Can't believe I didn't think of that. Sometimes the urge to make a funny joke overwhelms my best scientific instincts. It actually wouldn't mean that he was having a negative effect. Even 100% correlation does not equal causation. It could be that the team losing is somehow causing him to cheer for them. Or, it could be that some unidentified third variable is causing both him to root for the team and the team to lose. Like maybe he used to go out with a witch or something, and she's cursed him and the teams he cheers for. Wouldn't really be his fault, unless he was a real grade-A jerk to the witch.

Here's hoping the Penguins can find some way to re-sign both Malone and Hossa, or at least that they pick the right one of those two. I have no idea which one that is.

Dillon should be getting at least half the starts any time a corner outfielder sits. If I were managing, Kapler would only start for Cameron, but Cameron would sit about twice as often as Braun or Hart. You're giving up some OF defense going with Dillon over Kapler, but there is a ton more evidence that he might actually be a good enough hitter to deserve a corner OF start.

It wasn't a BF.netter, but it was a brewer fan -- Jeff Sackmann, in this article: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-benefit-of-batting-eighth/ This might not be the end of the story on this question. As the author notes at the end of the piece, a study using multiple years would be more definitive. But, since no one ever bothered to check whether the "more walks" hypothesis was true, I'd say at present we have to, at minimum, go with a null hypothesis of "no effect".

Every single team he's pulled for has lost.

One other thing, the difference between Kapler and Branyan is that non-hot streak Branyan is still a useful hitter to have in the lineup on a regular platoon basis. Non-hot streak Kapler is not, especially against righties. Early in the season, Yost was doing a decent job of platoon protecting Kapler, but now he's just the universal backup OF and 1st PH option, irrespective of the handedness of the pitcher. Even though he spent basically the entirety of his career in hitter's heavens (Texas, Colorado, to a lesser extent Boston), all he could muster against RHP is a career line of 264 / 327 / 397. Given how far his hitting tailed off after 2002, it's safe to say that his true talent hitting ability against RHP is well below that. Maybe 245 / 300 / 360? Yuck.